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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Oct-2012
8-Oct-12 World View -- Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics

Web Log - October, 2012

8-Oct-12 World View -- Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics

Syrian Defector: Bashar al-Assad making plans to flee to Russia

This morning's key headlines from

Taiwan and Japan to resume fishing talks over Senkaku Islands

Senkaku / Diaoyu / Diaoyutai islands
Senkaku / Diaoyu / Diaoyutai islands

Japanese news sources are reporting that Taiwan is officially spurning China's request for a joint China-Taiwan alliance over the disputed East China Sea islands (Japan calls them Senkaku, China calls them Diaoyu, Taiwan calls them Diaoyutai), and resuming talks over joint Japan-Taiwan fishing rights around the islands, which are said to be rich fishing grounds mainly for bluefin tuna and flame snapper. Relations between Japan and Taiwan took a nosedive when the Japanese government effectively nationalized the disputed islands on September 11 by purchasing them from their private Japanese owners. However, although Taiwan and Japan have never had an easy relationship, they're developing a closer relationship because they have a common enemy in China. This new alliance between Japan and Taiwan is certain to be infuriating to both the Chinese leadership and the highly nationalistic younger Chinese generations. Yomiuri Shimbun (Tokyo) and Central News Agency (CNA, Taipei)

China claims that the disputed islands belong to Taiwan

The agreement between Japan and Taiwan becomes particularly significant in view of a historical claim by Liu Xiaoming, China's ambassador to Britain. In an article last week, he says:

"My first ambassadorial post was to Egypt. I have many memories of this ancient and beautiful country. One is the Mena House Hotel, which I visited many times. Situated at the foot of the spectacular Cheops Pyramid, the hotel is the venue that produced the famous Cairo Declaration. It was published on 27 November 1943 after discussions between the leaders of China, Britain and the United States, and was the master plan for rebuilding international order following the war with Nazi Germany and Japan.

The Cairo Declaration was a laudable outcome of the war against both Germany, with its repellent Nazism, and Japan, with its equally repugnant military fascism. It stated in explicit terms that: “all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa (Taiwan) and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China. Japan will also be expelled from all other territories she has taken by violence and greed.”

Less than two years later the Potsdam Proclamation, released on 26 July 1945, reaffirmed that: “The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out.” The Japanese government accepted the Potsdam Proclamation in the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, and pledged to faithfully fulfill its obligations stipulated in the provisions of the Potsdam Proclamation.

All of these facts show that in accordance with the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, Diaoyu Dao, as affiliated islands of Taiwan, should be returned, together with Taiwan, to China."

So China's logic is that the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai islands belong to Taiwan, and Taiwan belongs to China. The problem is that Taiwan doesn't want to belong to China, and any alliance agreement between Taiwan and Japan is going to make the Chinese government apoplectic. Telegraph (London)

Syrian Defector: Bashar al-Assad making plans to flee to Russia

According to Abdullah al-Omar, who defected in September from the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and is currently living in Turkey, al-Assad has been staging terrorist bombings in order to blame them on the opposition, and is coordinating plans with Russia to flee to Moscow. Al-Omar worked in al-Assad's media office, which was responsible for manufacturing facts. The following is my rough transcription of what he said in the video:

"We were the team that faked the facts. The regime uses deceptions to control people's minds, and we used people who were good at perjury.

Many of the big bombings that occurred in Damascus - the regime blamed them on terrorist groups, but they were the work of the regime. The intelligence agencies did them, in coordination with the president's office. We knew hours in advance that they were going to happen, and cameras were set up in advance to take live video feed that could be sent to the international tv channels. They were especially busy when the Arab League observers visited Damascus. In the bombings, they used prisoners and detainees and dead bodies to decorate the blast locations.

The July 18'th blast that killed four of al-Assad's security advisors were done by two insiders at the National Security Office, in coordination with opposition fighters. The bomb went off ten minutes early. If it had gone off at the right time, Bashar would have been killed.

The al-Assad regime knows that it can't stay in power, and is making plans to flee to Russia. Russia is preparing 300 apartments for the extended al-Assad family. Within 60 days, they'll start fleeing. Bashar will be the last to go, after he receives international guarantees that he won't be prosecuted for war crimes."


Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics

The drone, or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), that crossed into Israel's air space from the Mediterranean on Saturday and was shot down by the Israeli air force (IAF) is now believed to have been developed by Iran and launched by the terrorist group Hizbollah, operating out of Lebanon. The surprise is that Iran even has such advanced technology. The IAF spotted the drone because it was flying very high for surveillance purposes. It's not known whether the IAF would have spotted it if it had been flying much lower, and was armed with missiles for attack. If not, then Israel has no known reliable defense to this kind of attack. Ynet (Tel Aviv) and Slate

U.S. agrees to allow S. Korea to deploy long-range missiles

Under a 1979 agreement with the U.S., South Korea has been prohibited from deploying long-range ballistic missiles with a range longer than 300 km, or drones with a payload exceeding 500 kg. On Saturday, S. Korean announced a deal with the U.S. permitting them to extend the range of its missiles up to 800 km, and the payload of its drones up to 2.5 tons. The new limits would allow S. Korean missiles to strike anywhere in North Korea, or even to reach Beijing. However, the South Koreans say that there are still enough restrictions imposed that South Korea could still not defend itself effectively against a North Korean attack. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul) and Xinhua

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Oct-12 World View -- Surprise drone over Israel changes Mideast dynamics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Oct-2012) Permanent Link
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