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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Dec-2010
9-Dec-10 News -- Violence and cholera spread in Haiti

Web Log - December, 2010

9-Dec-10 News -- Violence and cholera spread in Haiti

Palestinians seek an 'end game,' after Mideast peace process collapses

Palestinians seek an 'end game,' after Mideast peace process collapses

As we reported yesterday, the Mideast peace process has collapsed after the Obama administration has admitted that its entire strategy had failed. The administration had put a great deal of its prestige into a plan to bring the Israelis and Palestinians together to agree to a two-nation peace plan, and the effort is now at a dead end.

Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit says that the discussions should now shift to an "end game for a Palestinian settlement," according to Haaretz. "The Americans have been informing all of us that their efforts did not succeed," he said. "They wanted to reach a moratorium on settlement activities with Israel. That came to an end now."

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas plans to meet with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in Cairo on Thursday, and then go to an emergency meeting of the Arab League next week, according to the Jerusalem Post.

The main purpose of these meetings will be to decide whether to ask the United Nations Security Council for an international mandate to create a Palestinian state along the pre-1967 borders of Israel.

This option has been gathering support in recent weeks, as several Latin American states have taken steps to recognize just this solution, as we reported yesterday.

It's hard to know how far this proposal will go. It's been pretty obvious for months that neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis want any sort of "peace process" to go forward, but simply want to avoid being blamed for any failure. But this proposal for a unilateral declaration could take on a life of its own.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, nothing has changed in the Mideast since I made my first major prediction on this subject in 2003. (See "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?") The Arabs and the Jews will be re-fighting the bloody war that took place after the partitioning of Palestine in 1948 and the creation of the state of Israel -- by United Nations mandate. Any unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state on pre-1967 borders would create extremely tense stalemate that could lead quickly to war.

Violence and cholera spread in Haiti

The announcement of election results favoring the party of president Rene Preval has given the appearance of a stolen election in Haiti and triggered widespread violence on Wednesday, according to the Montreal Gazette.

For a number of years, Haiti has been one of the poorest countries on earth, with many neighborhoods strewn knee high in garbage, and the squalid stagnation got much worse after the catastrophic earthquake on January 12 of this year.

And now, cholera has spread to every part of the country, according to the LA Times. More than 91,000 people have gotten sick, and over 2,000 have been killed. In some cases, death occurred within two hours of falling ill from the disease.

In the past few years, I've reported on violence in Kenya, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Thailand and Burma (Myanmar). In each of those cases, I was able to predict that the violence would fizzle out because these countries were in generational Recovery, Awakening or Unraveling eras.

But no such prediction can be made of Haiti, which is well into a generational Crisis era. The violence in Haiti could easily spiral into full scale civil war, and frankly the only thing stopping it is the presence of U.N. peacekeeping forces, and injections of massive international aid.

Additional links

South China Sea, with blue line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory
South China Sea, with blue line added to show region claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory

Earlier this year, a confrontation was growing with China on one side, and with the US, Vietnam and other Asian countries on the other side. (See "24-Jul-10 News -- US confronts China on South China Sea claims.") Widespread opposition by countries in the region have caused China to step back a bit. China's position hasn't fundamentally changed, but lately the Chinese seem to be a bit more "open-minded." Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

North Korea has released a report defending the its artillery attack on Yeonpyeong island last month, killing four people, including two civilians. The North Koreans do not recognize the Northern Limit Line (NLL) that separates North Korean and South Korean sea waters, and claim that Yeonpyeong Island is actually North Korean territory. I guess they're saying that therefore they can kill as many civilians on the island as they want. Reuters

A suicide bomber struck a market in northwest Pakistan on Wednesday, killing more than 10 people. VOA

Pakistan is developing a close alliance with Sri Lanka, now that the Sri Lankan civil war with the Tamil Tiger rebels has ended. Pakistan has accused India of fomenting the Tamil Tiger rebellion, and now sees Sri Lanka as a counter-balance to India in Asian politics. Sri Lanka, Pakistan and China all have close ties with one another, and would be expected to be allied with one another in the "Clash of Civilizations" world war. Bahukutumbi Raman.

A new Russian law on the restitution of religious property was largely written to benefit the Russian Orthodox Church, whose property was confiscated and destroyed during the Bolshevik Revolution. However, under the terms of the law, Russia's Muslims are also going to demand return of properties confiscated from them in the past. These demands will stir anger and xenophobia among ethnic Russians. Paul Goble

About 50 European Muslim and Jewish faith leaders met in Brussels on Monday to urge better protection of religious minorities in Europe and to establish closer ties. European Jewish Press

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Dec-10 News -- Violence and cholera spread in Haiti thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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