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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Jan-2010
27-Jan-10 News - Sri Lanka elections, and Turkey returns to its roots

Web Log - January, 2010

27-Jan-10 News - Sri Lanka elections, and Turkey returns to its roots

Higher tensions between North and South Korea.

North and South Korea exchange artillery fire in the Yellow Sea

South Korea's Yonhap news service reports that North and South Korea have exchanged artillery fire across a disputed sea border in the Yellow Sea. "No casualties or injuries were reported as both sides fired toward the air and no fishing boats were then on duty."

This will probably fizzle out, as similar flare-ups have done in the past. But both countries are armed to the teeth, and are fully prepared for full-scale war with one another. The possibilities for panic, misunderstanding and miscalculation are large.

Sri Lanka holds peaceful elections after civil war ends

The Colombo Page newspaper, published in Sri Lanka's capital city, reports that Tuesday's historic presidential elections were peaceful, with little violence.

Many people had feared that the elections would trigger a renewed round of the civil war that lasted thirty years, between the majority Sinhalese ethnic group vs the minority Tamils. Voting was heavy in the southern Sinhalese regions, lighter in the northern Tamil region.

However, the The Independent is reporting that the vote will be close for the two candidates (both Sinhalese, both war heroes), and it may be the Tamil vote that decides the winner.

Following the Sri Lanka civil war has been exciting for me in the development of Generational Dynamics, since it's the first generational crisis war that I've been able to follow to its climax.

In 2006, the final peace agreement unraveled, and the 30 year old war transitioned into a full-fledged crisis war. (See "While world watches Lebanon, Sri Lanka goes to war.") It began its final phases early in 2008. (See "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels.")

At that time, the war became increasingly genocidal on both sides. The Sinhalese government forces were increasingly willing to kill civilians, and the Tamil rebel forces were increasingly willing to use civilians as human shields. This is typical as a generational crisis war approaches a climax.

By early 2009 it was clear that the end was near, and that the Tamil rebels were close to defeat. Analysts at Stratfor, BBC, and other organizations predicted that since the war had gone on for 30 years, it would continue on even after a rebel defeat. I said, based on generational theory, that this would be a crisis war climax, and that the war would end. Generational Dynamics turned out to be 100% right, and Stratfor, BBC and the others turned out to be dead wrong.

There is no other web site like this one in the world.

I renew my challenge to anyone to find an analyst, journalist, politician or web site, anywhere in the world, with anything even remotely close to the predictive success of this web site. Other analysts' predictions are no better than chance; after seven years, Generational Dynamics predictions have proved to be almost 100% correct. The validity of generational theory has been proven by the consistently correct results posted on this web site.

Turkey moves back towards its Sunni Muslim roots

The fall of Constantinople in 1453 ended the (Orthodox Christian) Byzantine Empire, and launched the (Sunni Muslim) Ottoman Empire. The Turks changed Constantinople's name to Istanbul, and made it the Caliphate for Islam (playing the same role as the Vatican in Rome for Catholicism).

When the Ottoman Empire collapsed after World War I, Turkey became a secular nation, and worldwide Islam lost its Caliphate. The 1940s was an Awakening era for the Arab/Muslim world, and it resulted in pan-Arab and Sunni Muslim nationalism. According to an intelligence report on Islam, published by the US military in 1946:

"The Moslems remember the power with which once they not only ruled their own domains but also overpowered half of Europe, yet they are painfully aware of their present economic, cultural, and military impoverishment. Thus a terrific internal pressure is building up in their collective thinking. The Moslems intend, by any means possible, to regain political independence and to reap the profits of their own resources, which in recent times and up to the present have been surrendered to the exploitation of foreigners who could provide capital investments. The area, in short, has an inferiority complex, and its activities are thus as unpredictable as those of any individual so motivated."

Now, a new analysis in the Asian Times, Turkey in recent years has been moving back to its Muslim roots, along with an "irreversible shift in Turkish foreign policy towards Israel, the United States and the Middle East as a whole."

The main signpost of this shift was the election of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the Islamist AKP party. The article concludes:

"Turkey will find a very receptive audience among Arabs and Muslims all over the world who are desperate for a powerful and sensible leadership to defend and champion their causes. Needless to say, for the besieged Palestinians in Gaza, Erdogan is becoming a household name, a folk hero, a new Gamal Abdel Nasser, president of Egypt from 1954 to 1970. The same sentiment is shared throughout the region."

Additional Links

The Washington Post says that Hugo Chavez's revolution is crumbling, referring to the virulently anti-American president of Venezuela.

Greece has avoided (i.e., postponed) an immediate financial crisis by selling $11.3 billion of 5-year government bonds at a very high 6.2% interest rate, according to Bloomberg. It will have to sell tens of billions of dollars in additional bonds this year.

"Lower your voice when taking calls in public." That's the first rule of cell phone etiquette, according to Computerworld.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jan-10 News - Sri Lanka elections, Turkey returns to its roots thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Jan-2010) Permanent Link
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