Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Oct-2009
Furious Iran blames Pakistan, US and Britain for Sunday's terrorist attacks

Web Log - October, 2009

Furious Iran blames Pakistan, US and Britain for Sunday's terrorist attacks

Iran's Revolutionary Guards vow revenge.

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Revolutionary Guards' commander-in-chief, said that Jundollah, the terrorist group claiming credit for Sunday's terrorist attack in southeastern Iran, has ties to American, British and Pakistani intelligence organizations.

Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, highlighting the region of the Jundullah attack
Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, highlighting the region of the Jundullah attack

I briefly mentioned Sunday's attack a couple of days ago, in my article on the growing war between the Pakistani army and the Taliban. Jundullah, the Sunni Islamist terrorist group with links to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, killed 42 people in a bomb attack, including 20 or so top commanders in the Revolutionary Guards.

What's becoming increasingly clear is that this terrorist attack is a major humiliation to the Revolutionary Guards. It's the biggest attack on the Revolutionary Guards since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and apparently the leadership will demand revenge for the attacks.

To put this into a generational context, think back to the beginning of American President John F. Kennedy's administration in 1961. WW II had just ended 16 years earlier, and JFK was a young president who had to prove to Americans that he could stand up to the Russians. So he triggered the Bay of Pigs disaster and risked thermonuclear war with the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Today, the Iran/Iraq war ended just 21 years ago, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a young president who has to prove to Iranians that he can stand up the West. Sooner or later, he may be forced to trigger some major international confrontation, to prove that he's "tough enough."

Blaming the US and Britain is a knee-jerk reaction for the Iranian hardliners. In the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979, employees of the American embassy in Tehran were kept as hostages for over a year. Iran's ayatollahs were able to unify the Iranian people behind the Islamic Revolution by blaming "the Great Satan" for all their troubles. Iranian hardliners today are looking for ways to repeat that formula. They've certainly tried it in opposing the student street protests of this summer -- and incidentally, these street protests are still continuing on an almost weekly basis on college campuses.

But what's really fascinating about this situation is the increasing tension between Iran and Pakistan.

Iran's Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi is quoted as saying, "We have good evidence and documents ... which show that Abdulmalek Rigi (Jundullah leader) and all his terrorist agents are in contact with Pakistani intelligence system. ... An Iranian delegation is due to visit Pakistan to present them with the documents."

Thus, one possible scenario in the next few weeks and months is that Iranian forces could cross the border back into Pakistan to attack Jundullah on Pakistani soil. This could spiral into a full-fledged diplomatic crisis.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting about this situation is that we see the two sides forming in the coming battle between Sunni and Shia Muslims.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iran hardliners have been pursuing an incredible fantasy that Iran can create an Islamic empire encompassing the entire Mideast, and that even Sunni groups would be willing to be governed by Tehran.

What we've been seeing recently is that al-Qaeda is playing the part of the "glue" that's been unifying Sunni militants from the entire region, including Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, against the West, Shia Muslims and Hindus. This new confrontation between Iran and Pakistan makes it clear that Shia Iran is clearly on the side of the West in that confrontation.

As I've been pointing out for years, the Iranian people (as opposed to their leaders) are generally pro-American and pro-West, and it's still my expectation that Iran will be an ally of America, Britain, Israel and the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations World War.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (22-Oct-2009) Permanent Link
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