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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jul-07
Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffers major election defeat on Sunday

Web Log - July, 2007

Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffers major election defeat on Sunday

Abe appears unable to govern, like Boomer politicians in America.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major parliamentary election defeat on Sunday, when the party lost its majority in the upper house of the Diet (parliament). However, the LDP retains a large majority in the lower house, and so can still legislate.

From September, 2006: Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe, right, and his predecessor, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi applauding <font size=-2>(Source: AP)</font>

From September, 2006: Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe, right, and his predecessor, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi applauding (Source: AP)

When Shinzo Abe became Japan's Prime Minister in September of last year, he was distinguished by two big things: First, he was considered conservative, and the most hawkish Prime Minister since World War II; and second, he was the first Prime Minister born after WW II.

Just as America's government, led throughout by Boomers, the first generation born after World War II, the Japanese government has become increasingly paralyzed following Abe's victory.

We've seen this over and over again in countries around the world. It's now 62 years since the end of World War II, and as the leadership in each country passes to the generation born after the war, the government becomes paralyzed, while the people become more xenophobic:

The American government has been almost paralyzed since the 2004 election, and is even worse after the 2006 election, with Americans becoming increasingly xenophobic over Latinos and Chinese.

Israel became paralyzed when Ehud Olmert took over after Ariel Sharon went into a coma, with the people increasingly fearful of Palestinian and Hizbollan missiles. As I understand it, Olmert's approval rating in polls is close to 0%, especially after summer, 2006, when he and his government panicked and launched the Lebanon war within four hours, with no plan and no objectives.

The Palestinian territories have been sinking into chaos ever since Yasser Arafat died, with xenophobia directed at other Palestinians. Today, the Palestinians are split into two parts, with Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah ruling in the West Bank, and Hamas ruling in Gaza.

In South Korea, politicians are in over their heads with the North Korea situation, and buried in scandal. The people are increasingly anxious and fearful of a North Korean explosion.

Some countries have brand new leaders -- Gordon Brown in the UK and Nicolas Sarkozy in France -- with great plans for change. These leaders haven't yet had time to accomplish anything, nor have they had the time to demonstrate that they won't accomplish anything. Xenophobia between Europeans and Muslims is increasing steadily.

On the other hand, countries that still have leaders that grew up during the last crisis war (China's President Hu Jintao, India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf) are not paralyzed and ungovernable, in my judgment, even though the level of political conflict is very high.

The near-collapse of the LDP government in Japan is being called "historic," inasmuch as the LDP has been the ruling party since 1955. Abe's fall from grace has been especially spectacular, because of highly visible scandals in national health and pension systems. These scandals became electric in May when it turned out that 50 million national pension records are missing, meaning that many people who had paid into the pension system now have to provide, via decades-old receipts, that they did so, or lose their pensions. A scandal over agriculture caused the agriculture minister to commit suicide in May.

In many ways, these scandals are similar to American scandals over Hurricane Katrina and the Walter Reed hospital scandal. What these scandals have in common is that they show that aging, increasingly lethargic and uncaring bureaucracies can no longer respond as quickly to national emergencies.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these paralyzed bureaucracies and governments will maintain the status quo until some spark occurs, forcing a dramatic change. As time goes on, the xenophobic populations become increasingly anxious and fearful, and a small spark can ignite a blaze the leads so a major crisis or war. (30-Jul-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jul-07 Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffers major election defeat on Sunday

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jul-07
Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffers major election defeat on Sunday