Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Dec-06
Likely result of the midterm elections: War in Iraq may escalate with "troop surge"

Web Log - December, 2006

Likely result of the midterm elections: War in Iraq may escalate with "troop surge"

Is this what you expected or voted for?

Elections are always fascinating because they allow us to clearly gauge public mood changes, and large public mood changes almost always reflect generational changes.

In the case of our midterm elections, the young college-age "Generation Y" or "Millennial Generation," as they're currently called, spoke for the first time.

We're now beginning to see the likely results of the recent election: Tens of thousands more American troops will be pouring into Iraq. In fact, the first movement of new troops will begin early in January.

Is this what you expected just a few weeks ago, when you voted in the election? Did you think that you were voting for a Vietnam-style withdrawal? If you did, you're not getting what you expected.

But if you've been a regular reader of this web site, then you're getting exactly what you expected. As I've been saying for years, there's no "anti-war movement" in America today. In fact, America is in a "generational crisis" era today and so will be getting increasingly confrontational, just the opposite of what happened during the 1960s Vietnam War era, which was a "generational Awakening" era.

We're now beginning to get a better picture of what the new college-age generation want: They want the Iraq war problem solved, but they don't want America to lose the war.

There's only way to satisfy (or appear to satisfy) that demand: Send in more troops. And that's what's happening. That's the kind of thing that always happens, in every country, during a "generational crisis" period, when the new college-age "Hero" generation begins to be heard. They're much more confrontational than their Boomer and Xer parents, they have no fear of war, and they're prepared to become the new "greatest generation" in the coming "clash of civilizations" world war, like the generation of Heroes that won World War II.

As I've said before, these Heroes are our young darlings. When the time comes and the nation is facing its greatest danger, these Heroes will go off to war fearlessly and do their duty. Without any thought for themselves, they'll go proudly and valiantly into battle, and they won't even be sad about it. It's their parents in the Xer and Boomer generations who'll be standing on the shore in tears, waving goodbye as their ships disappear over the horizon, knowing that we'll never see many of them again, but also knowing that there's no choice.

Let's go back to October, a month before the elections, and recall what pundits were saying at that time would happen if the Democrats won: The anti-war movement will grow, the Democrats will pass laws restricting spending on the Iraq war, in order to force the Administration to end the war, and the Democrats will investigate every nook and cranny of the Bush administration.

Almost without exception (and I think I can even remove the "almost"), every pundit I heard made this kind of prediction. It was a prediction that we would see a repeat of what happened in 1973-74, when Congress and massive anti-war demonstrations forced President Nixon to withdraw American forces from Vietnam and then used its investigative power to force President Nixon to resign from office.

But the Iraq war is nothing like the Vietnam war. We'll have to see what happens in January, but I expect no significant opposition to the plan to increase American troop strength in Iraq -- escalating the war, rather than ending it.

The reason is simple, and it's the reason I've given: The college-age Millennial generation wants the Iraq problem to be solved, but will not tolerate a Vietnam-like defeat. The option that Bush appears to be taking is the only one remaining: Pour more soldiers into Iraq in order to get something that passes for victory.

This is once again a situation where the pundits have been uniformly wrong, and this web site has been absolutely right, based on Generational Dynamics forecasting.

This web site has correctly predicted what would happen in Iraq in August, 2003, what would happen in the Mideast in May, 2003, what would happen in Darfur in June, 2004, and what would happen to the "anti-war movement" in February, 2003. There have been no Generational Dynamics predictions that have turned out to be wrong.

I've repeatedly challenged anyone to find any web site anywhere in the world with a predictive success record anywhere close to this web site's record. There is none.

Consider New York Times foreign affairs columnist Tom Friedman. Friedman is considered by many to be the best and most knowledgeable Middle East pundit in America. He's written several books, he's considered a top expert, and his predictions are treated with enormous respect.

And yet, as this web page on shows, Friedman has made one error after another. His predictions have simply been wrong.

Now, you can read Mr. Friedman's columns. Some of them may make you happy, others may make you angry. But whether you're happy or angry, what he tells you is happening is quite likely to be wrong.

You can read the columns on this web site. You probably won't feel either happy or angry after reading one of these columns; most likely you'll feel anxious. The predictions will often be complex and counter-intuitive. But they'll be right, time after time after time.

If you want to know what's going on in the world, and what's going to happen, this is the only web site that will tell you.

I set up this web site in 2002, and I started making predictions seriously in 2003. I specifically decided that all predictions would remain on the web site, so that I can never get away with "selective memory bias" in recalling what I predicted in the past.

Enough time has passed now that I can responsibly claim that the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology is working. It has to be used carefully, it requires some knowledge of mathematical concepts, and it permits only certain types of predictions, not permitting others (for "chaotic" events, in the sense of Chaos Theory). But when it makes a prediction, the prediction is correct.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2
China 2 North Korea 2
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Unfortunately, as regular readers of this web site know, the news isn't good. It's now been 61 years since the end of World War II, which means that almost all the people in the generations who lived through WW II, and remember the panic and horror that everyone felt, are now gone.

They've left behind the Baby Boomer generation, people who have no idea how to get things done, but only how to argue with and mow down other people who actually do know how to get things done. That's why countries around the world that fought in WW II, including America, are paralyzed and frozen by constant bickering and arguing, and why it's the young Millennial Generation, the new Hero Generation, that's really making the decisions, and making their voices felt through polling or elections. And that's why we're sending tens of thousands more troops into Iraq, and why we're headed for a new world war, a "clash of civilizations" world war. In America, Europe, Gaza, Israel, China and Japan, it's the young people who are leading their countries to being increasingly confrontational, and why this new world war is no longer very far off. (17-Dec-06) Permanent Link
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