Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-06
Lebanon: Hizbollah calls for massive protests on Friday to bring down government.

Web Log - December, 2006

Lebanon: Hizbollah calls for massive protests on Friday to bring down government.

Moqtada al-Sadr tries to do the same in Iraq

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, on television Thursday calling for demonstrations in Beirut on Friday <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, on television Thursday calling for demonstrations in Beirut on Friday (Source: CNN)

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, gave a televised speech on Thursday: "We appeal to all Lebanese, from every region and political movement, to take part in a peaceful and civilised demonstration on Friday to rid us of an incapable government that has failed in its mission." Street action is to begin at 3 pm (1300 GMT, 9 am ET) in central Beirut.

I'm watching CNN International as I'm typing this, and they're giving it cataclysmic coverage.

I'm a lot more sanguine about this than many people are. After the recent assassination of Lebanese Minister cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, many people fear that this kind of action could lead to a civil war, as Jordan's King Abdullah warned last weekend.

However, dear reader, if you've been reading this web site for a while, then you know very well that a civil war in Lebanon is impossible at this time because Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the bloody civil war of the 1980s.

In fact, this kind of political chaos is typical of generational Awakening eras in any country.

Look what happened during the 1960s, America's last generational Awakening era. It began in August 1963, when Martin Luther King led a march on Washington in which over 200,000 people participated. Later, President Kennedy was assassinated, and so was King. There were numerous demonstrations and riots throughout the country. There were "long, hot summers," led by the Black Panthers, and there were bombings and declarations of war against the government, led by the Weather Underground. President Lyndon Johnson was driven from office, and the climax was when President Richard Nixon was forced to resign.

The same thing is going on in Lebanon right now, and it doesn't mean a massive civil war, or a "failed state," as some pundits are calling it. It's just political turmoil of a kind that always happens in generational Awakening eras. If it leads to a new government in Lebanon, that's not necessarily a disaster.

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at a press conference on Thursday <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>
Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at a press conference on Thursday (Source: CNN)

For the same reason, I'm not particularly worried about the latest announcement by Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to form an alliance with Sunnis and Christians, and replace the government. Iraq is also in a generational Awakening era, and a new government would be like the forced resignation of President Nixon in 1974 America. In fact, it might bring together Sunni and Shiite factions that are now part of the insurgency and reduce the level of violence.

You know, there's a part of the Iraqi story that I never hear about, even though it must be there -- like the Sherlock Holmes' story about "The dog that didn't bark." Why haven't the Iraqi people themselves found a way to end all this violence? None of the suicide bombers are Iraqis, but they're supported by criminal organizations within Iraq itself that are killing Iraqis.

Well, perhaps this proposal by al Sadr is the way. Come to think of it, it took several years for the FBI to bring down Al Capone, and several decades to decimate the Mafia, so maybe this proposal is the process by which it will happen in Iraq.

So, as I said, I wouldn't actually be that concerned if al Sadr ended up leading a new government in Iraq.

But that's not to say that all is well.

The core problem in the Mideast is still the Israeli/Palestinian problem, and the Palestinians and Israelis are in a generational Crisis era, heading soon for a major genocidal war.

Thus the latest news -- that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) has given up trying to form a "unity government" of Fatah and Hamas, and may himself be planning to resign as President -- is considerably more ominous.

Any governmental change among the Palestinians will give additional government control to Hamas and to the radical Palestinian kids, especially in Gaza where the the median age is 15.8, and the kids with guns and missiles are running things.

Furthermore, new governments in Lebanon and Iraq, while perhaps not a problem by themselves, would probably be closer to Iran. Currently, the governments in Lebanon and Iraq are considered to be U.S. allies; new governments, especially a Hizbollah-based government in Lebanon, would not be.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this really matters. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major genocidal war between Israelis and Arabs that will engulf the entire region. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells us where we're going, but not how we're getting there. If new governments in Iraq and Lebanon are part of the scenario, then all we can do is watch and wait. (1-Dec-06) Permanent Link
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