Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Apr-06
Allah Akbar!! Ahmadinejad announces that Iran is enriching uranium

Web Log - April, 2006

Allah Akbar!! Ahmadinejad announces that Iran is enriching uranium

Clearly trying to provoke an Israeli or American military attack on Iran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced "good news," and gave a triumphant press conference announcing that Iran was producing enriched uranium, "for peaceful purposes," and would soon be producing much more.

His announcement was met with wild excitement and cheers of "Allahu Akbar" (Allah is the greatest) from the largely Iranian audience.

Quoting from an Iranian press release:

"With the blessings of God Almighty and with the help of Iran's youth, today we perfected the A to Z of technology that is used to produce nuclear fuel and we have the capability to produce it," said the president proudly.

Noting that Iran's success in the production of nuclear fuel is still on the laboratory scale, Ahmadinejad added: "Based on our wise plans, God willing we will move on quickly to the level of industrial production (of nuclear fuel).

"This will, of course, make our enemies angry because today, real power is in the persistence, knowledge, culture and civilization of nations," the president said.

That is why, he went on to say, "when the Iranian nation made the decision (to pursue nuclear energy) global equations were changed." Ahmadinejad, recalling years of sanctions imposed by the enemies, said: "When we were weak, the enemies were not able to cause us any harm. Now that our nation has added to its successes, we will move on in this long, honorable track."

This is what Ahmadinejad said to wildly enthusiastic Iranians.

I've quoted this at length so you can get a feel for what's going on.

So imagine you hear a pundit say something like the following: "We have time to try diplomacy. The right combination of carrots and sticks could work with Iran just as it worked with Libya. We should be looking to change this regime's behavior, not to overthrow the regime."

This is typical of the most na´ve statements by pundits who are supposed to know what they're talking about, though why anyone would think they did is beyond me, since just reading about Ahmadinejad's press conference makes it clear that nothing short of force is going to make him back down.

And what about force? As I wrote in January, Ahmadinejad and Iran are evidently trying to be as provocative and threatening as possible, with the intention of goading or provoking the West into the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries. Somalia and Eritrea are in east Africa.
Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries. Somalia and Eritrea are in east Africa.

It started last October when he spoke to students at a conference, "The World Without Zionism," he called for Israel to be "wiped off the map," and called for a new wave of Palestinian attacks to "wipe off this stigma from the face of the Islamic world." Later, Ahmadinejad said that Israel should be pushed into the sea, that the Holocaust never happened, and that the entire state of Israel should be moved to Europe or Alaska.

Lately he's been sticking his thumb in the eye of the world by his provocative announcements of nuclear technology and missile weaponry.

So we can assume through his goading that he's not afraid of a military attack on Iran, and would actually welcome it. Why? Because he would then be free to retaliate in any number of ways -- bomb oil fields in other countries, bomb ships at sea, or provide terrorist group Hizbollah with weapons to start a war with Israel.

As we speculated in January, it's because Ahmadinejad and his Muslim cleric superiors have concluded that if they can provoke a major regional war between Arabs and Jews, and if they can drive America out of Iraq, then Iran will be the superpower with hegemony over the entire region.

So, diplomacy won't work, threats of force won't work, and actual force won't work. What about doing nothing? Then Iran will continue with its nuclear development program, and develop nuclear bombs.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it actually doesn't matter much what we do to Iran, or what Iran does. The Mideast is heading a major genocidal war between Jews and Arabs anyway, as we've discussed many times before, and Iran will supply weapons to the Arabs anyway, so whether we use diplomacy, threat of force, actual force, or we do nothing, the results will be the same.

This brings me to an important point having to do with politics. There's the usual nasty political debate going on over an article in New Yorker Magazine by Seymour Hersh about how the Pentagon has made contingency plans for a military strike on Iran's nuclear development facilities.

So what should we do -- bomb or not bomb? Does Generational Dynamics provide any guidance?

Well, the argument against bombing is that there'll be a catastrophe, because Iran will retaliate furiously causing a Mideast cataclysm.

However, this argument overlooks the fact that the Mideast is headed for war anyway, and Iran will find some excuse to cause the same kind of Mideast cataclysm anyway.

So both of these are bad, but which is worse?

Here we bring in some of the concepts of Chaos Theory. I assume you've heard of the "butterfly effect": If a butterfly in China flaps its wings, then that might cause a hurricane in America. However, you can never be sure. If someone sees a butterfly flap its wings in Beijing one day, and a few days later there's a hurricane in America, did the butterfly cause the hurricane? Maybe so, maybe not. There's no way to tell.

Similarly, there's no way to tell whether bombing Iran will make things better or worse. The results of bombing or not bombing Iran are completely unpredictable, completely chaotic. It might make things worse, it might make things better, but we won't know which until it's over, and even then we may not know. We may never know.

As an aside, there's no way to predict what effect Ahmadinejad's glitzy shenanigans will have, either. Maybe he'll goad America into a bombing, or maybe it will make people think he's bluffing. Chaos Theory and Generational Dynamics tell us that there's no predictable result to any of it.

So Generational Dynamics is of no help at all in trying to decide whether or not to bomb Iran, and neither is anything else. All we know for sure is that the Mideast is headed for a major new genocidal war that will engulf the entire region. But how that war will come about cannot be predicted. Allah Akbar. (13-Apr-06) Permanent Link
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