	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Apr-06
Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.

Web Log - April, 2006

Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.

Will they "cry uncle" and recognize Israel in exchange for financial aid? To Palestinian youth, that would look like the ultimate hypocrisy and a total sellout -- especially in Gaza, where the especially in Gaza where the the median age of the entire population is 15.6. These are children who elected Hamas, a government of terrorists, and they will not tolerate hypocrisy in that government for long.

And yet it would seem that Hamas has no choice.

On Sunday, Norway discontinued foreign aid to Palestinians. The European Union is expected to do the same on Monday. America is doing the same. And we're talking about a lot of money -- $1.1 billion per year.

Some people think that the purpose of cutting off aid is to bring down Hamas, and to force a a new election (as if that would change anything).

That's certainly what Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh believes - calling it "blackmail." He vows that Hamas will not change its policies -- even though the Palestinian Authority is broke, and can't pay the March salaries of 140,000 government employees.

The Palestinians have received have some promises of money from Arab countries -- from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates -- but it's a lot less than they need, and it's already late.

Meanwhile, the Gaza strip continues its descent into total chaos and lawlessness. Ever since the Israelis pulled out of Gaza last summer, the old settlements have become a paradise for scavengers, who dig up and sell everything from trees to pipes. Palestinian militias in Gaza are firing a dozen or so Qassam missiles into Israel every day, occasionally killing someone. In return, the Israeli air strikes and artillery barrages have killed several Palestinians, mostly militants.

As for the "peace process," it's hard to discern any. Israel's new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has adopted a policy known as "convergence" (the Hebrew word also means "consolidation") -- Israel will withdraw its West Bank settlements back into "blocs" within Israel, and will complete the security fence/barrier, thus unilaterally defining Israel's borders.

This kind of unilateral action will not be acceptable, according to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who says it will "lead to war" within a few years.

So this is crunch time, and given the current situation, it's hard to see where the "give" is. Something has to snap, somewhere. Either Hamas will recognize Israel and renounce terrorism, or America and EU will find some formula for resuming aid without that assurance, or the Palestinian government will collapse in some way.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Jews and Arabs are headed for a major regional crisis war, refighting the genocidal 1940s war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells where you're going, but not the path that will take you there.

So there's no way to predict how the current "crunch" will be resolved. All we can do is make some generalities.

Using the language of Chaos Theory, day to day political events are "chaotic events" that fall like snowflakes in random ways. The impending regional war is a "chaotic attractor," meaning that the chaotic day-to-day political events are "attracted" by the impending war.

We've seen this over and over again since the death of Yasser Arafat. His death was supposed to bring peace, but it didn't. The election of Mahmoud Abbas as Palestinian President brought a temporary respite from the chaos, but today Abbas is powerless and irrelevant. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza was supposed to bring peace and prosperity, but instead Gaza is increasingly chaotic. The parliamentary elections were supposed to provide the Palestinian Authority with a working government, but instead they put Hamas in control.

In each case, political events were "attracted" in the direction of the upcoming war.

The current "crunch" will do the same. Those Pollyannas who hope that the current crisis will bring about the failure of Hamas, and a resurgence Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are dreaming. The highest probability goes to the options that bring the region closer to war, and even if something "positive" happens, then it can't last.

If something as abstract as Chaos Theory doesn't please you, then let's make it more concrete.

As we said, Gaza is being run by children, children with a high intolerance for anything that smells of hypocrisy. They've already given up on Abbas because they consider him to be an irrelevant dinosaur. They've given Hamas a chance because they want a solution, not hypocrisy. If the Pollyannas get their wish and Hamas is brought down, then it will be replaced by some less moderate, more militant than Hamas. That's what happens when you have teenagers making all the decisions. (10-Apr-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Apr-06 Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Apr-06
Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.