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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Oct-05
Shamil Basayev gains in stature and power as pan-Caucasus terror leader

Web Log - October, 2005

Shamil Basayev gains in stature and power as pan-Caucasus terror leader

He claims credit for leading Nalchik attack, but blames a traitor for leaking advance information.

Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev's web site (http://www.kavkazcenter.com/) presents a stark view of the terrorist leader's intentions in provoking a wider war between Muslims in Chechnya and other North Caucausus provinces and Russia itself (mostly Orthodox Christians).

Related Articles

Shamil Basayev
Shamil Basayev is dead: The Chechen terrorist responsible for the Beslan school massacre... (11-Jul-06)
Shamil Basayev gains in stature and power as pan-Caucasus terror leader: He claims credit for leading Nalchik attack, but blames a traitor for leaking advance information.... (19-Oct-05)
Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively: Coordinated attack by 300 Chechen gunmen raises Caucusus violence to new level.... (14-Oct-05)
Russia is barring ABC News reporters from working in Russia: Still infuriated over ABC Nightline's airing of interview with Chechen terrorist warlord Shamil Basayev,... (2-Aug-05)
Russia infuriated over ABC "Nightline" interview of Shamil Basayev: "How many more bombs must hit New York before the American media learns... (29-Jul-05)
Passenger train bombed in Dagestan, following Putin's visit: This is the 70'th terrorist attach this year in Dagestan,... (25-Jul-05)
Massive bomb blasts in Egypt vacation resort: This follows new blasts in London and Chechnya.... (23-Jul-05)
Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus: Terrorist Shamil Basayev may gain, as rebels select an obscure Islamic cleric... (11-Mar-05)
Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border: As an act of defiance, Russia has vetoed continuation of an international peacekeeping force... (12-Jan-05)
Chechen terrorist Shamil Basayev now has the same stature as Osama bin Laden: Putin's ploy of blaming "international terrorists" for the Beslan terrorism was demolished... (19-Sep-04)
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be calling for revenge: Putin said that Russian "weakness in the face of danger" has caused Russia to be "beaten up" in the face of "a total and full-blown war."... (4-Sept-04)

In one article, quoting Basayev himself, he took credit for last week's massive assault on Nalchik, saying that "Nalchik was attacked by 217 Mujahideen."

He described it as follows: "217 Mujahideen participated in the assault operation, who at 9:14 a.m. simultaneously stormed 15 military objects of all power structures of KB [Kabardino-Balkarian province] in territory of city."

By objective standards, the attack has to be considered a failure. Dozens of Basayev's militants were killed or captured, while there were only a few Russian FSB (former KGB) casualties. Furthermore, several of the assault targets were defended with no losses whatsoever.

According to Basayev, any failure can be attributed to an information leak:

"Our casualties 41 Shaheeds [martyrs], insha Allah [if Allah wills].

These all are our wounded Mujahideen [Muslim fighters] who could not move and consequently conducted combat up to the end, by remaining in city.

For us it is greater casualties. These casualties were caused because five days before the operation there was a serious information leakage and kafirs [infidels] have dispatched additionally 1000 Special Forces units to Nalchik by planes, trains and motor vehicles."

Basayev adds, "Despite of greater losses, this is a big success for us, as our dead ones in Paradise, insha Allah and their dead ones in the Hell!"


The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea
The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

Anyway, Basayev's attack is widely considered to be significant because it signals a substantial increase in his power and influence.

A problem for Putin

According to an analysis in the Financial Times: "On the surface, the attack in Nalchik, in which authorities said 92 Islamist militants and 24 police and civilians died, was reminiscent of an incursion last year by rebels from Chechnya into the neighbouring Caucasus republic of Ingushetia. But there was an important evolution: the attack in Nalchik appeared to reflect a recent change of leadership and tactics among Chechen rebels, and their ability to rely upon local discontent in the republics of the north Caucasus."

Much of the world press have framed the Nalchik attack as a policy failure by Russian President Vladimir Putin. One Washington Post commentary entitled " Putin's Spreading War", by Masha Lipman, blames the war on "the irresponsibility and inefficiency of Putin's bureaucracy."

Whatever the reason, few people doubt that the problems in Russia's Caucasus provinces are getting worse. The "nightmare scenario," where all Russia's Muslim provinces in the Caucasus join together with Chechnya in a secessionist cause appears increasingly likely, especially since unemployment in the region exceeds 50%, and government corruption is high.

Keeping corpses

A new Kremlin policy that's infuriating the Nalchik families since the terrorist attacks has the FSB refusing to return the dead bodies of innocent bystanders to their families for burial.

The policy is based on a law passed in 2002, following a terrorist attack in Moscow. The purpose of the policy is to prevent the return of the bodies of terrorists to their leaders, who can then honor them as fallen martyrs.

The result is that innocent bystanders cannot be buried according to Muslim law, causing a great deal of anger and distress.

The problem for the authorities is that there's no way to distinguish innocent bystanders from the terrorists themselves, who were local citizens. An article on Basayev's web site accuses the "FSB scumbags" of planting weapons on innocent bystanders in order to accuse them of being militants.

An analyst critical of Putin, speaking to the BBC, accused the authorities of returning to the days of genocidal dictator Josef Stalin:

"The situation is becoming increasingly unpredictable and unstable. For anyone with intelligence, the situation is understandable. Things have gotten much worse in the last five years. The Mujahideens are not real Mujahideens -- they're just young people who wish to protest, but they can't express their point of view because opposition newspapers have been destroyed in the last five years. These 'Stalin methods' will not work at the present time. It's very wrong not to return the corpses of the people killed to their relatives The relatives are protesting. This is a very small republic and the people know each other. These actions make the authorities very unpopular.

They can't just arrest 100 or 200 young people, say that they're militants, and expect to get a solution to the problem. There's only one solution - an open society."

In fact, Putin is likely to adopt even more confrontational policies, since all of this puts increasing pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin to "solve" the problem.

According to another article on Basayev's web site, Moscow is getting ready for a "great war" in the Caucasus.

"The Kremlin is getting ready for it," it says. "By the beginning of 2005 Moscow has concentrated 300 000 soldiers in Caucasus . Part of them, more than 100 000 (according to some data up to 200 000), are directly in the Chechen Republic. ... The militarization of all Northern Caucasus goes at full speed."

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1
China 2 North Korea 3
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Whether this is true or not, there's no doubt that a confrontation between Russia and its Caucasus provinces is gathering steam.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, such a confrontation, leading to a major regional civil war, is certain. The Bolshevik Revolution, ending in 1928 with the civil war between Trotsky and Stalin, killed millions of Russians, and that war is going to be refought.

Furthermore, the Caucasus is one of the three regions that have historically have hosted massive crisis wars between the Orthodox and Muslim civilizations. (The others are the Crimea and the Balkans.) (19-Oct-05) Permanent Link
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