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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Oct-05
Violent beating of democratic activist in China illustrates country's increasing instablity

Web Log - October, 2005

Violent beating of democratic activist in China illustrates country's increasing instablity

Government authorities are thought to be responsible for the attack on Lu Banglie, who was kidnapped on Saturday evening as he was traveling with a UK Guardian reporter to Taishi. He disappeared until Monday, when authorities drove him to the hospital to be treated for the savage beating he had received. "Five to six of them pulled my hair and punched me in the head," said Lu. "They kicked my legs and body for a couple of minutes. Then I passed out. Some people splashed water on me which brought me round, then I passed out again." The local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda office said there had been "no violence" and that Mr Lu had "pretended to be dead."

This kind of incident epitomizes the increasing instability of China, as it transitions from a "generational unraveling" period to a "generational crisis" period. As described at length before, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is approaching a massive civil war as its bubble economy unravels, along with the rigid social structure originally set up by Mao Zedong in the 1950s and 60s. Today, there are close to 150 million migrant workers (20% of the workforce), mostly peasants who have lost their farms to corrupt land deals by CCP officials, who take any jobs they can find in the cities and send money back to their families in vast poverty-stricken rural areas. Any recession or economic setback to China would provoke nationwide fury.

China has a long history massive slaughter during periods of rebellions and civil war, most recently the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) and the civil war between Mao and Chiang Kai-shek (1934-49). The last civil war led to a split in China, with Mao's forces taking control of the mainland as Chiang's forces fled to Taiwan. Generational Dynamics predicts that a new civil war will soon force the violent reunification of Taiwan with China, pulling America and the world into a new world war.

Today, we see instability increasing even without a recession. It's hard to understand this in America, but regional riots occur on an almost daily basis, throughout China. According to CCP figures, 3.6 million people took part in 74,000 "mass incidents" last year, an increase of more than 20% on 2003. Ten years ago, there were only a few hundred such mass riots in the country, but the number has been increasing exponentially as the country's society and economy continue to unravel.

In many ways, Lu Banglie is a perfect example of the generational archetype to lead this kind of rebellion. Born in 1971, he's an example of the "Nomad archetype" in China, known as Generation X in America. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Nomads are born and raised during generational awakening eras, periods of enormous political turmoil (like the 60s in America, and they typically grow up to be the angry and disaffected, but the generation that gets things done. Most of the world's greatest war leaders, like FDR, are from the Nomad generation, but so are many of the world's most evil dictators, including Hitler and Mao himself.

Lu, described as a pioneer who studied Gandhi, began in 2001, at age 30, to initiate a class struggle against the CCP by petitioning the Beijing government to relieve taxes on poor farmers. In 2004, he achieved personal success by getting his local village chief ousted, and getting himself elected, campaigning against land seizures, corruption and rising healthcare costs.

That much was tolerated by the CCP, but Lu really started getting into trouble this year when the villagers of Taishi, far from Lu's home, asked him to help them get rid of their own village chief. He willingly got involved, much as Mao himself might have, 70-80 years earlier.

This was intolerable to the CCP because of something that it fears more than anything else: organized dissent. It's one thing when a group of villagers protest or rebel against their local village chief, but when organizers from different regions begin cooperating with one another, then the threat to the CCP becomes overwhelming.

Organized threats to the CCP have always been dealt with very harshly. The seminal event was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. This was the explosive climax to China's generational awakening era, as several million college students from all over the country crowded into Tiananmen Square in Beijing to protest CCP policies. The CCP responded by jailing and slaughtering thousands of students.

But that event also triggered two movements that will eventually be the CCP's undoing. The 1989 massacre launched the Falun Gong movement in 1992, led by Li Hongzhi. Li was born in 1951 or 1952, and is a member of China's "generational prophet generation" (like America's baby boomer generation. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the prophet generation typically provides spiritual guidance, while Lu Banglie's nomad generation does the actual implementation work.)

Falun Gong (or Falun Dafa) is a spiritual movement, containing concepts from Buddhism and Taoism. The CCP was shocked to learn that by 1999 the movement had some 100 million practitioners across China. Older people would get together to meditate and do exercises. Once again, Beijing became alarmed at the possibility of organized resistance, and declared in 1999 that practicing the Falun Gong was illegal. Rumors have it that millions of Chinese have been jailed simply for doing the equivalent of Richard Simmons exercises.

Nonetheless, the Falun Gong movement continues to grow and gain practitioners. Their leaders believe it to be the modern version of the God-Worshipper's Society, a spiritual movement which launched the Taiping Rebellion in 1852, and was a form of Christianity combined with Buddhism. China has the most sophisticated technology in the world for controlling internet content, and has the most advanced techniques in the world for crushing regional rebellions. Nonetheless, the Lu Banglie incident is an example of how ordinary Chinese peasants are forming inter-regional organized resistance movements, using whatever slang or obscure language they need to get their ideas across the country through the internet.

The other movement launched by the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre was the Wild Lily movement in 1990 among Taiwanese college students, who watched the CCP's Tiananmen Square actions in horror, and vowed to remain independent of China. Today, the president of Taiwan is Chen Shui-bian, one of the early supporters of the Wild Lily rebellion, and an advocate of Taiwanese independence.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, new religions and ideologies are usually created by the Prophet generation during an awakening era, and are implemented by the Nomad generation during a crisis era. This is a pattern that has been occurred repeatedly throughout history, and we see it happening now, right before our eyes, in China. (11-Oct-05) Permanent Link
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