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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Aug-05
Pundits claim that antiwar movement is gaining steam with Cindy Sheehan

Web Log - August, 2005

Pundits claim that antiwar movement is gaining steam with Cindy Sheehan

Oh really? That's news to me. Ummmmm, where are the college students?

It was just a month ago when there was a "Karl Rove" scandal that was going to cause a lot of problems in Washington. Today it's barely even remembered.

Today, the scandal du jour is the new antiwar movement. Cindy Sheehan, who lost her son in Iraq, is demanding a visit with George Bush during his Crawford, Texas, vacation. (Sheehan has briefly left Crawford to care for her ill mother.)

I've been hearing about a resurgent antiwar movement ever since the Afghan war was declared a "quagmire" within a week after we landed there, shortly after 9/11.

On Thursday I was listening to Pat Buchanan on MSNBC. He foresees a powerful resurgence of the antiwar movement, thanks to Sheehan and others. Buchanan ought to know. He was President Richard Nixon's speechwriter when college students were hanging Nixon in effigy, demanding that we pull out of Vietnam. Yes sir, Buchanan ought to know.

Except, duh!!! Where are the college students hanging George Bush in effigy?????

Answer: There aren't any. If you want to see college students demonstrating, take a look at Iran. One week we see demonstrating college students demanding more rights for women, and this week we see demonstrating college students demanding development of nuclear technology.

Why am I the only one who notices things like this? You don't have to understand the entire theory of Generational Dynamics to realize that there's a big difference between the American antiwar movement today versus in the 1960s, and the demonstrations today versus those in Iran today.

( propos to this, I recently commented on the obvious generational explanation for the French rejection of the EU constitution, but not one pundit I've seen has yet picked up on it. These people are totally blind to even the simplest and most obvious generational interpretation of events.)

As I've said, America is in a "generational crisis" era today, and so you aren't going to see any college students demonstrating. There's no generation gap today.

As I've explained many times, America in the 1960s was in a "generational awakening" period, where there is massive political conflict between war heroes from the previous crisis war and their children, born after the last crisis war.

That's why you saw college students rioting and demonstrating in the 1960s. Iran is in a generational awakening period today (one generation past the 1980s Iran/Iraq war), and that's why you see college students demonstrating there today.

But you won't see American college students today demonstrating against the war. There's no "generation gap" today, as there was in the 1960s. The people demonstrating against the war today are exactly the same people who were demonstrating in the 1960s -- except that now they're 40 years older! It wouldn't surprise me if I learned that Cindy Sheehan was carrying placards in the 1960s, or even burning her bra. Those tactics work in a generational awakening period, but not in a crisis period.

With regard to the question of what's going on in Iraq, both the Republicans and the Democrats are completely misreading what's going on in Iraq. The Iraqis themselves do not want a civil war or any other kind of war, as I've said on my web site a million times. But Iraq is heading towards becoming a battlefield in the imminent clash of civilizations world war.

Republicans like Pat Buchanan have been talking about pulling out of Iraq, but they're wrong to think that the Iraq war is going to end anytime soon. Actually, my expectations are that when the "clash of civilizations" world war breaks out, our forces will still be there. I believe that historians will look at the Iraq war as one of the early battles of the world war, which will have already begun on 9/11.

And the Democrats are wrong to think that the "antiwar" movement is going to be revived. This is silly 60s stuff which is completely impossible today.

That's not to say that there won't be bitter political battles over the war in Iraq. But these battles are not generational, and they don't represent an antiwar movement. They represent party against party, red states against blue states. And that means that they will never be anywhere near as virulent as they were in the 60s. (19-Aug-05) Permanent Link
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