Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 01-Feb-05
UN declares that Darfur war was "not genocide," in the most sickeningly cynical story of the year

Web Log - February, 2005

UN declares that Darfur war was "not genocide," in the most sickeningly cynical story of the year

If mass murders and rapes and forced relocation of millions of people isn't genocide, then what is?

Evidently few people deny the facts on the ground: For almost two years, white Arab government forces, along with government-sponsored militias, have been systematically mass-murdering, mass-raping, torturing, robbing, and generally "cleansing" large numbers of black Africans living in Darfur, the Western region of Sudan. 1.8 million people have been forced to flee for their lives to large camps near or over Sudan's western border with Chad. 70,000 are known to have been executed, but hundreds of thousands are suspected of having died from the horrific atrocities.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clearly been a genocidal crisis war, based on fault lines defined by race, skin color, religion and ethnicity. When the news broke last year in June, we predicted that the UN would fail to stop the war before it runs its course. This kind of genocidal crisis war "is a force of nature, and that the UN can no more stop it than they can stop a typhoon."

Not only did the UN fail to stop the war, the war actually got progressively worse throughout the fall. By December, the African Union was openly mocking the UN's fecklessness.

Although there are many wars going on in the world today, the Darfur war was the only crisis war. However, this crisis war finally appears to have ended in the last few weeks. UN officials are congratulating themselves for getting a "peace treaty," but what it really means is that the war has finally run its course.

Who's to blame?

Now it's time to assign blame, and wouldn't ya know it, they've found a way to blame it on good ol' Uncle Sam.

When former Secretary of State Colin Powell visited the Darfur region a few months ago, America took the official position that the Darfur war was a "genocide."

Other nations refused to agree, and this was the big joke. China couldn't agree, because the Chinese are exploiting Sudan's oil. Russia couldn't agree either - they were selling arms to the Sudanese in exchange for oil. And various Muslim states couldn't agree, of course, because that would mean Arabs would be guilty of genocide, and we can't have that.

It's all very embarassing for the UN, of course. It was just last spring that Kofi Annan led a huge international conference in Africa, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the Rwanda genocide in 1994. The UN did nothing to stop that genocide, and Kofi Annan promised, "Never again." Little did he know at the time that "never" would come very quickly.

So now it's time to punish Sudan with sanctions for committing this genocide, but China, Russia and the Muslims won't support that. So that's a dilemma - let Sudan off the hook and look even more foolish.

So an answer has been found:

The International Criminal Court is a recent creation of the UN designed to bring human rights criminals to justice. It's perfectly obvious that the intent of many UN officials is to use it to bring such charges against American government officials, and possibly even arrest such officials as they're traveling in foreign countries. For that reason, America has refused to submit itself to the jurisdiction of the ICC, or even acknowledge its legitimacy in any way.

So it's the perfect out for the UN. It isn't the UN's fault that things went badly in Darfur; it's those mean old Americans.

What is genocide?

In developing Generational Dynamics, I had to come up with a solid working definition of genocide. This isn't the standard legal or dictionary definition, but my research indicates that it's closest to what genocide really is.

I needed this definition because I needed a method for identifying crisis wars. A basic principle of Generational Dynamics is that every nation has a genocidal crisis war every 70-90 years, and this has been shown to be true in over 100 cases in dozens of countries throughout history. This requires a solid definition of "genocidal" that can be applied to any war at any place and time in history to determine whether or not it's genocidal.

Here are some of the factors that indicate that a war exhibits this kind of genocidal violence:

In World War II, genocidal acts by the Germans included: The Holocaust (execution of millions of Jews), and Hitler's refusal to capitulate when it was clear that Germany would lose. Genocidal acts by Japan included: Murder and torture of prisoners of war at Bataan; refusal to capitulate when it was clear that Japan would lose; Genocidal acts by America included: Massive D-day assault (willingness to risk everything for victory); firebombing Dresden and Tokyo; use of nuclear weapons on Japanese cities.

In the American Civil War, General Sherman's march through Georgia in 1864 was a genocidal act, since it involved a "scorched earth policy" that killed as many civilians as possible.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, genocide is a force of nature, and is neither good nor evil, any more than an earthquake or tsunami is good or evil. This may seem a heartless way of looking at it, but everything about crisis wars is heartless.

What's next in Darfur

The end of a crisis war is a major generational transition for every country, and that's the same with Darfur. A crisis war is a traumatic experience for everyone involved, even the perpetrators of war crimes, because they have to live with the massive slaughters, rapes, and other atrocities that were perpetrated. The country's top priority is to make sure that such a war is never necessary again.

Sudan has committed new violations of the ceasefire, but they seem to be sporadic and do not appear to indicate that the crisis war is still going on after all.

The following is my guess as to what's going on: Because of the UN's humanitarian program, many lives were saved by people fleeing to camps. Thus, the UN was at least partially successful in preventing as much mass murder as might otherwise have occurred. But now, Sudanese officials want to make sure that the people who fled the region have no opportunity to return to their former homes. The way to do that is to continue some low-level violence in the Darfur region, so that the people will be afraid to return, for fear of being attacked again. (01-Feb-05) Permanent Link
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