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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Sept-04
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be calling for revenge

Web Log - September, 2004

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be calling for revenge

Putin said that Russian "weakness in the face of danger" has caused Russia to be "beaten up" in the face of "a total and full-blown war."

A shaken Putin made his somber and angry remarks to a nationwide radio and television audience, after more than 340 people, including 156 children, were killed in a terrorist hostage-taking incident in Northern Ossetia.

This was only the most recent of three major terrorist acts in ten days, including the bombing of two airplanes in flight and a subway bombing in Moscow.

According to Putin, Russia has two choices: To "rebuff" the terrorists or to "begin obeying their orders." He added that "[our] actions [must] become proportionate to the size of the new threats."

In Putin's own words:

From a Generational Dynamics point of view, the call for national unity is significant. A nation in a generational crisis period experiences a series of shocks and surprises that unify the country against a common enemy and elicit a desire for revenge. In other (non-crisis) periods, the country is rent by political differences, and seeks to respond to challenges by means of compromise and containment. But in a crisis period, when the generation of people who lived through the last crisis war disappear (retire or die), the visceral reaction is revenge, not compromise. This eventually leads to a new crisis war.


Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya
Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

According to President Putin, "The people who sent the terrorists to commit that utterly heinous crime harbored a hope to set on our peoples to fight with one another and unleash a bloody feud in Northern Caucasus."

Thus, Putin is going to try to walk a difficult line. On the one hand, he plans to invoke whatever measures are required to "rebuff" the terrorists. On the other hand, he wants to prevent war in the Caucasus.

Unfortunately, these are conflicting objectives. His enemies, the Chechen terrorists, are also in a crisis period; they're also becoming more and more unified, and they are also looking for revenge.

So any action that Putin takes in Chechnya will have to be fairly harsh, and any harsh actions will only lead to a harsh response. That's what happens during generational crisis periods, until a new crisis war occurs.

The Caucasus region is one of the most dangerous regions of the world right now. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's even more dangerous than the Palestine region, since it's farther into a generational crisis period. It's a major front line in the centuries old war between Orthodox Christians and Muslims. (4-Sept-04) Permanent Link
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