Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY WIKI COMMENT FORUM DOWNLOADS ABOUT | |
| Place and time | Saturday, June 4, 2011, 10 am - Fort Devens |
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U.S. Army European Command Planning Unit Fort Devens |
| Speaker | John J. Xenakis e-mail: mailto:john@GenerationalDynamics.com web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com |
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View from the international space station |
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Non-crisis wars are 'rational' |
| - | Launched by politicians, people follow |
| - | Usually have clear, 'logical' objectives |
| - | Try to follow the 'rules of war' |
| - | Often intermittent, no clear conclusion |
| - | Example: Korean, Vietnam, Iraq wars |
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Crisis wars are 'irrational' |
| - | Launched by the people, politicians follow |
| - | Caused by xenophobia and generational panic |
| - | Genocidal, often wars of extermination |
| - | Gather momentum until the explosive climax |
| - | Clear resolution |
| - | Example: Revolutionary War, Civil War, WW II |
| - | Crisis civil wars are the worst |
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Aftermath |
| - | Non-crisis: Problems remain unresolved |
| - | Crisis: Survivors vow to spend their lives making |
| - | ... sure that nothing like that ever happens again |
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Economic indicators down |
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Greece and Eurozone deteriorating |
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Mideast - Arab uprisings |
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War in Libya |
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Manufacturing |
| - | Car sales down sharply in May |
| - | Manufacturing index down sharply in April |
| - | Net job creation falls sharply in May |
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Real estate |
| - | Huge real estate bubble continues to burst |
| - | New home construction bumping along the bottom |
| - | Pending home sales falling |
| - | Home prices still have long way down to go |
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Greece's Situation continues to worsen |
| - | 2-year bond yields at 26% (compare US at <1%) |
| - | 10-year bond yields at 17% (US at around 3%) |
| - | Bond yields continue to worsen, no matter what anyone does |
| - | Credit default swap prices also continue to rise |
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Bailouts are not working |
| - | Last year's bailout was 110 billion euros total |
| - | EU officials promised that this would solve the problem |
| - | Instead, Greece's situation continued to deteriorate |
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New tranche due on June 29 |
| - | IMF balking - Greece isn't meeting austerity commitments |
| - | Germany, Finland, Netherlands oppose bailing out lazy Greeks |
| - | Many officials are advocating |
| - | ECB says any default will be a disaster for eurozone |
| - | This is a major crisis |
| - | Likely outcome: New bailout plan for Greece |
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PIIGS countries |
| - | Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain |
| - | Greece, Ireland already bailed out |
| - | Bailout planned for Portugal |
| - | Many balking at useless bailouts |
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Fraud is the norm |
| - | Bank assets not marked to market |
| - | EU officials have been caught in multiple major lies |
| - | Juncker: 'When it becomes serious, you have to lie' |
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Awakening era countries |
| - | Compare to 1960s-1970s America |
| - | 'Attracted away from' war - civil war impossible |
| - | Iran, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia (Unraveling) |
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Crisis era countries |
| - | 'Attracted' to confrontation and war |
| - | Israel |
| - | Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Libya |
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Conflict in cultural values |
| - | Anti-war |
| - | Humanitarian |
| - | Mideast fault lines (Arab league) |
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History of Libya |
| - | Italian invasion, 1911 |
| - | Climax: Destruction of Tripolitanian Republic, 1920 |
| - | ... Agreement with Sunusis, al-Rajma agreement, 1920 |
| - | Italian massacre of Bedouins in Cyrenaica, 1931??? |
| - | Civil war in 1937??? |
| - | Unraveling era coup in 1969 |
| - | Crisis era today |
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Belligerents |
| - | 'Allies': US, Japan, India, Russia, Israel, Britain |
| - | 'Axis': China, N. Korea, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia |
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India vs Pakistan |
| - | Refight Hindus vs Muslims following 1947 Partition |
| - | Hindus allied with Shia vs Sunni |
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Mideast |
| - | Refight Arabs vs Jews, following 1948 creation of Israel |
| - | Hamas vs Fatah |
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Europe |
| - | Britain, France, Germany |
| - | Muslims, Roma |
| - | Eastern Europe |
| - | Caucasus - Orthodox Christianity vs Islam - Sochi |
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Determine history and identity groups |
| - | At least a century preferably more |
| - | Contemporary sources as much as possible |
| - | Ethnic, religious, tribal, physical differences |
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Identify generational eras |
| - | Crisis eras are usually easiest to identify |
| - | Awakening eras are almost as easy |
| - | See documentation on how to identify eras |
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Generational Dynamics forecasting |
| - | Identify long-term trends |
| - | Match current events to long-term trends |
| - | Determine short-term trends |
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America's Recovery Era - 1950s |
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America's Awakening Era - 1960s-1970s |
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America's Unraveling Era - 1980s-1990s |
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Celebrating victory |
| - | America defeated the Depression and the Nazis |
| - | 'Ozzie and Harriet' / 'Leave it to Beaver' world |
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Mothers in the 1950s |
| - | 'Kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen by their sexist husbands' - NOT |
| - | Grew up amidst homeless, poverty, starvation in 1930s |
| - | Saw their brothers and fathers tortured in Bataan Death March |
| - | ... and killed like fish in a barrel at Normandy |
| - | Forced to take 'Rosie the Riveter' jobs they hated |
| - | White picket fence / Home with the kids was heaven on earth |
| - | A gift that they could give to their daughters |
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Obsession: Never let it happen again |
| - | Claim: 'Should have killed Hitler in 1935' |
| - | Truman Doctrine |
| - | Korean War |
| - | Vietnam War |
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Rwanda (Genocide - 1994) |
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Sri Lanka (Civil war - 2009) |
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Bosnia (Bosnian war - 1995) |
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Afghanistan (Civil war - 1996) |
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Good opportunity for Generational Dynamics |
| - | Follow war from pre-regeneracy to climax and beyond |
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Timeline to civil war |
| - | Separatist movement in 1976 |
| - | Low-level violence began in 1983 |
| - | Alternating periods of peace and violence |
| - | Each period of violence worse than previous one |
| - | Sri Lanka regeneracy in 2006 |
| - | Climax in March 2009 |
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Sri Lanka after the war |
| - | Analysts worldwide were wrong about future |
| - | Climax comparable to surrender of Nazis/Japanese |
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Rise of Boomer post-war generation (born 1942+) |
| - | Rejecting the war-based values of their parents |
| - | Woman's lib (burning bras), anti-war (burning draft cards) |
| - | Anti-racism, environmentalism |
| - | [Contrast: War of 1812] |
| - | Generation gap - protesting parents' austere rules and institutions |
| - | Summer of Love - 1967 |
| - | Lyndon Johnson - 1968 |
| - | Democratic convention 1968, long hot summers, student riots |
| - | Ohio State, Watergate |
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Awakening era climax |
| - | Establishes generational victor |
| - | Resignation of Richard Nixon |
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Iran (Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war - 1988) |
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Iraq (Iran/Iraq war - 1988) |
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Syria (Lebanese civil war, Hama - 1982) |
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Lebanon (Lebanese civil war, Sabra and Shatila - 1982) |
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Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand (Killing fields - 1979) |
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Crisis War: Constitutional Revolution |
| - | Crisis civil war 1905-1909 |
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Crisis war |
| - | Great Islamic Revolution (1979) |
| - | Iran/Iraq war, climaxed in 1988 |
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Recovery Era |
| - | Highly repressive Islamic government |
| - | High level of unity |
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Awakening era - 2003-present |
| - | Pro-American riots began in early 2000s decade |
| - | Adoption of Western clothing and styles |
| - | Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 2005 - Morality police |
| - | Massive riots began June 2009 election (like America 1967) |
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Waiting for Awakening era climax |
| - | Bitter division between Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader |
| - | When forced to choose: ? |
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Crisis War: Great Iraq Revolution of 1920 |
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Crisis War: Iran/Iraq war |
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Political chaos in Awakening era |
| - | A crisis civil war is impossible |
| - | 2006-7 'civil war' fizzled quickly |
| - | Analysts, journalists, politicians - incredible ignorance |
| - | Moving closer to Iran |
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Crisis war: WW I / Collapse of Ottoman Empire |
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Crisis war: 1970s-80s war/civil war both countries |
| - | Lebanon climax: 1982 Sabra and Shatila massacre |
| - | Syria climax: 1982 Hama massacre |
| - | Awakening era 'Arab Uprising' |
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Lebanese President Émile Geamil Lahoud during 2006 war: |
"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we are united, and we are really united, and the national army is doing its work according to the government, and the resistance [Hizbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as well."
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French conquest of Indochina, 1865-1885 |
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North and South have different ethnic origins |
| - | North: Ethnic Chinese |
| - | South: Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia |
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French converted many South Vietnamese to Catholicism |
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Ethnic differences |
| - | Yellow Shirts: Fair-skinned Thai-Chinese minority |
| - | Red Shirts: Dark-skinned Thai-Thai indigenous majority |
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Thaksin Shinawatra |
| - | Hero of the Red Shirts |
| - | PM from 2001-2006 |
| - | Army coup in 2006 |
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Alternating periods of peace and violence |
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Unraveling of austere post-war rules and institutions |
| - | Emphasis on the individual |
| - | If it feels good, do it |
| - | Wars are brief, mass protests are brief (Million man march) |
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Other countries: Burma, Algeria, Tunisia, Venezuela |
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China |
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Korea |
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Japan |
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India and Pakistan |
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Afghanistan |
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Saudi Arabia |
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Israel and Palestine |
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Disappearance of all WW II survivors |
| - | 9/11 MIGHT have started a world war |
| - | Return to stereotypical gender roles |
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Worldwide increase in xenophobia |
| - | Increasing tensions along Mexican border |
| - | Increasing tensions with Muslims |
| - | 2001: Incarceration of many Muslims |
| - | 2010: Spike in public xenophobia (Ground Zero) |
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Repudiation of 1960s Awakening era |
| - | 1960s: 'Everyone is equal' |
| - | 1960s: Racial and gender equality |
| - | 1990s: Only the individual matters |
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Other regions |
| - | Europe: Roma Gypsies and Muslims |
| - | Egypt: Muslims, Coptic Christians |
| - | Mideast: Sunni vs Shia vs West |
| - | Japan: Korea, China |
| - | China: Han vs Japanese, Uighurs, Tibetans |
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History of regular massive rebellions |
| - | White Lotus Rebellion, 1795-1805 |
| - | Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1864 |
| - | Mao's Communist Revolution, 1934-1949 |
| - | China is overdue for the next rebellion |
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Recovery Era, 1949-65 |
| - | 'Let a hundred flowers bloom' - systematic repression |
| - | Great Leap Forward - Tens of thousands of deaths bloodbath |
| - | The 'Miserable Generation' born in the 1950s |
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Awakening era, 1965-89 |
| - | Cultural revolution, 1965-68 |
| - | Rapprochement with U.S |
| - | Joined United Nations |
| - | Instituted many educational and govt reforms |
| - | Open criticism of Mao |
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Tiananmen Square massacre, 1989 |
| - | Led by Nomad archetypes (like our Gen-X) |
| - | Generational echo of May 4 Movement (May 4 1919) |
| - | Victory of war survivors over post-war generations |
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Rise of Falun Gong movement |
| - | Led by 'Miserable Generation' |
| - | Millions of people meeting to do aerobic exercises |
| - | Echos of Taiping Rebellion |
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Panic in Beijing |
| - | Collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 |
| - | Fear of Falun Gong -- brutal crackdown |
| - | Tens of thousands of 'mass incidents' each year |
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Taiwan: White Lily rebellion, 1991 |
| - | Rise of independence movement |
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Taiwan Anti-Secession law, 2005 |
| - | Calls for 'peaceful unification' |
| - | Recognizes any 'reckless attempt' re Taiwan independence |
| - | Requires China to resort to 'non-peaceful approaches' |
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Widespread anti-Western xenophobia |
| - | Financial crisis, 2007-8 |
| - | Anger and humiliation over Olympics torch ceremony |
| - | Anger at anti-China bias re Tibet uprising |
| - | Highly nationalistic 'Unhappy China' |
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China preparing for war with U.S. |
| - | Massive military buildup |
| - | Repeated threats of war over Taiwan |
| - | String of Pearls strategy |
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Highly confrontational foreign policy since 2009 |
| - | Serious confrontations with Japan |
| - | Serious confrontations in East/South China Seas |
| - | Claiming that enormous regions are owned by China |
| - | Aggressive on border disputes with India |
| - | Agressively siding with Pakistan on Kashmir/Jammu |
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Schizophrenic foreign policy |
| - | Attempts to reconcile with neighbors |
| - | Attempts to project a friendlier international face |
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Rapid internal changes |
| - | Internal generational conflict |
| - | Transition to younger generation in 2012 |
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Crisis war - World War II |
| - | Japanese occupation/colonization, 1905-1945 |
| - | Japan's use of 'comfort women' during WW II |
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Recovery Era |
| - | Korean War, 1950-1953 (armistice) |
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Kwangju massacre, South Korea, 1980 |
| - | Followed 1979 coup d'état |
| - | Awakening era climax |
| - | Led to victory of '386 generation' |
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Crisis era: North |
| - | Near starvation |
| - | Renewed military confrontations with South |
| - | Development of nuclear weapons |
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Crisis era: South - Schizophrenia |
| - | Loyalty to Koreans in the North |
| - | Loyalty to traditional allies in China |
| - | Fear of invasion/nuclear weapons in North |
| - | Loathing of Japanese - Western ally |
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Meiji Restoration (1868) |
| - | Invasion by Commander Perry, 1853 |
| - | Several civil wars |
| - | Rule by Emperor was restored |
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Recovery era |
| - | Industrialization |
| - | Compulsory education |
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Awakening era: Colonialism |
| - | Reaction to Perry's easy victory |
| - | Learning colonialism from the West (Scramble for Africa) |
| - | Learning to be an advanced, 'westernized' nation |
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Unraveling era: Imperialism |
| - | Tokyo stock market crash, 1919 |
| - | Smoot-Hawley act, 1930 |
| - | Invasion of Manchuria, 1931 |
| - | Invasion of China, 1937 |
| - | Pearl Harbor, 1941 |
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Postwar - Repudiation of military |
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Colony of Britain until 1947 |
| - | Indian independence movement: Mahatma Gandhi |
| - | Founder of Pakistan: Muhammad Ali Jinnah |
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Partition, 1947, and war |
| - | One of the bloodiest wars of the century |
| - | Forced migration of 14 million people, 1 million killed |
| - | Separating Hindus from Muslims |
| - | Epicenter: Kashmir and Jammu |
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Crisis era |
| - | Tensions growing over Kashmir/Jammu |
| - | Tensions growing over terrorist attacks |
| - | Almost went to war after 2008 Mumbai attack |
| - | China siding with Pakistan |
| - | Russia siding with India |
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Russian invasion in 1980s |
| - | Unraveling era war |
| - | Stalemate (defeat for Russians) |
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Ethnic alignments - Crisis civil war, 1990-96 |
| - | Sunni Pashtuns in south linked to Pashtuns in Pakistan |
| - | Shia Hizaris in north linked to Persians and Hindus |
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Recovery era, 1996 - present |
| - | Rise of Sunni hardliners - Taliban |
| - | Link with Arab jihadists - al-Qaeda, bin Laden, 9/11 |
| - | Defeat of Taliban army, 2002 |
| - | Link with Pakistan's Pashtun jihadists |
| - | Link with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) |
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Long-time alliance with U.S. |
| - | Saudis supply the oil |
| - | America supplies the military defense against Iran |
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Split over Arab uprisings |
| - | Throwing Mubarak under the bus |
| - | Opposing Saudi intervention in Bahrain |
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Saudi view |
| - | Iran is an existential threat to Gulf states |
| - | U.S. is not willing to take Iran seriously |
| - | U.S. not willing to pressure Israel on settlements |
| - | Very rapid attitude change |
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Saudi action - rise of the Gulf Cooperation Council |
| - | Six Gulf nations |
| - | Invite Morocco and Jordan to join |
| - | Economic aid vs well-trained Sunni armies |
| - | Sever link to U.S. defense umbrella |
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Crisis war at founding |
| - | Partitioning of Palestine in 1948 |
| - | Creation of Israel, May 14, 1948 |
| - | 1948 Arab-Israeli war |
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Palestinian view: The Naqba |
| - | Loss of ancestral lands |
| - | 4 million refugees |
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Peace process |
| - | Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon |
| - | Mideast Roadmap to Peace, May 2003 |
| - | Death of Yasser Arafat, election of Mahmoud Abbas |
| - | Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, 2005 |
| - | Permanent vegetative state - Ariel Sharon |
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Three wars since then |
| - | Israel vs Hizbollah in Lebanon, 2006 |
| - | Fatah vs Hamas in Gaza, 2007 |
| - | Operation Cast Lead: Israel vs Hamas in Gaza, 2009 |
| - | Extremely volatile |
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Tech bubble |
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Real estate and credit bubbles |
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Financial crisis |
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Eurozone deterioration |
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Price/Earnings ratios |
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Tech bubble began in 1995 |
| - | Began in 1995 |
| - | Why did it occur at all? |
| - | Why did it occur then - vs. 1985 or 2005? |
| - | International real estate bubble also began in 1995 |
| - | Economists have no explanation |
| - | Blaming Greenspan/2003 is not credible |
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Mainstream economists can't explain anything since 1995 |
| - | Can't explain tech bubble |
| - | Can't explain real estate bubble |
| - | Can't explain credit bubble |
| - | Didn't foresee the financial crisis |
| - | Didn't foresee where we are today |
| - | Have no idea what's going to happen next |
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Pending crises |
| - | Europe: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium |
| - | China: Massive real estate bubble about to pop |
| - | U.S.: Federal, state debt. Pensions bankrupt. |
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Price/Earnings ratios |
| - | Stock price / last 12 months' reported earnings |
| - | Well above average (13.91) since 1995 |
| - | WSJ: Current (5/20/2001) S&P 500 P/E ratio: 16.58 |
| - | Apply the Law of Mean Reversion |
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Continuing fraud |
| - | Fraud: 'Operating earnings' or 'forward earnings' |
| - | Became common after the 1990s tech bubble |
| - | Named names on my web site |
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How money is 'created': Securitization of debt |
| - | Tulipomania - 1637 - Tulip future share |
| - | South Sea Bubble - 1621 - South Sea shares |
| - | Bankruptcy of French Monarchy - 1789 - 'assignats' |
| - | Panic of 1857 - Railway Shares |
| - | 1929 - Foreign bonds and stock shares |
| - | 2000s - Synthetic securities (CDSs, CDOs, IRSs) |
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Collapse of bubble |
| - | Huge deflationary spiral |
| - | Not (hyper)inflation |
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Pervasiveness of fraud |
| - | Homeowners lied on their applications |
| - | Construction firms colluded with appraisers, got kickbacks |
| - | Construction firms colluded with brokers, got kickbacks |
| - | Lenders resold mortgages without verifying claims |
| - | Lenders adopted predatory lending practices |
| - | Lenders gave loans to people with no hope of repaying |
| - | 'Financial Engineers' created synthetic securities |
| - | Synthetic securities were mathematically fraudulent |
| - | Investment models assumed real estate would rise forever |
| - | Ratings firms took fat fees to lie about AAA ratings on securities |
| - | Monoline firms took fat fees to insure fraudulent securities |
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Only explanation is generational |
| - | Incompetent, greedy Boomer bosses, cooperating with |
| - | Nihilistic, greedy Gen-X perpetrators |
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1970s models, 1990s models are irrelevant today |
| - | Inflation vs deflation |
| - | Economics of the Maginot Line |
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Boomers and Generation-Xers |
| - | 'Financial engineering' programs - 1990s |
| - | Greed+Incompetence with Greed+Nihilism |
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Malthus Effect and food prices |
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Religion |
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Violence in Islam |
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The future and the Singularity |
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Malthus Effect |
| - | Thomas Roberts Malthus: 'Essay on Population' 1798 |
| - | Population grows faster than food supply |
| - | Result is wars, not famines |
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Green Revolution |
| - | Triggered by massive famines during WW II |
| - | Huge effort led by Rockefeller foundation 1948 |
| - | Fertilizers, insecticides, better seeds |
| - | Green revolution petered out in the 1990s |
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At most one religion can be 'true' |
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Identity group formation: Religion, ethnicity, skin color, etc. |
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Religion doesn't cause war; war causes religion |
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Al-Qaeda-linked international jihadists (AQAP, AQIM, etc.) |
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Independent salafist groups (Egypt, Gaza, etc.) (Cf IRA) |
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Ordinary Muslims |
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World War |
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Computer breakthrough - Intelligent plumbers and nursemaids |
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Singularity - around 2030 |