(Previous slide) Generational Dynamics
(Previous page) Introduction
(Next page) History is Speeding Up
(Next slide) Western and Eastern European Timelines
Generational Dynamics


  View from the international space station




Earth
Earth




It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, following predictable behavior patterns, and not by politicians. Politicians' attitudes and behaviors are irrelevant, except as they reflect the views of the people.
 
(Previous slide) Generational Dynamics
(Previous page) Introduction
(Next page) History is Speeding Up
(Next slide) Crisis versus Non-Crisis wars
Western and Eastern European Timelines


Crisis war timelines
Crisis war timelines

 
(Previous slide) Western and Eastern European Timelines
(Previous page) Introduction
(Next page) History is Speeding Up
(Next slide) Crisis versus Non-Crisis wars
Crisis versus Non-Crisis wars


  Non-crisis wars are 'rational'
-   Launched by politicians, people follow
-   Usually have clear, 'logical' objectives
-   Try to follow the 'rules of war'
-   Often intermittent, no clear conclusion
-   Example: Korean, Vietnam, Iraq wars

  Crisis wars are 'irrational'
-   Launched by the people, politicians follow
-   Caused by xenophobia and generational panic
-   Genocidal, often wars of extermination
-   Gather momentum until the explosive climax
-   Clear resolution
-   Example: Revolutionary War, Civil War, WW II
-   Crisis civil wars are the worst

  Aftermath
-   Non-crisis: Problems remain unresolved
-   Crisis: Survivors vow to spend their lives making
-   ... sure that nothing like that ever happens again

Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.