Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
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Table of Contents

Table of Figures

     Theory outline
     Cross-disciplinary studies
     Prerequisites to understanding Generational Dynamics
             History prerequisites

Chapter 1 - Basics of Generational Dynamics
     America's crisis wars
     Relationships between crisis and non-crisis wars
     Crisis wars in other countries
     What is genocide?
     Stock Cycles, Long Waves and Kondratiev Cycles
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 2 - Crisis Wars, Awakenings and Generations
     Crisis Wars
     Frequency of Crisis Wars
     Crisis and non-crisis eras - Turnings
     New research in generational theory
     Principle of Localization and Merging Timelines
     New Research: Suicide bombers and ....... (STAMP: Friday, December 2, 2005, 12:15:31)
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 3 - Visceral Causes of Crisis Wars
     Terminology describing cause of war
     Visceral causes of today's crisis period
     The Causes of the American Civil War
             Tolstoy on the causes of war
             The Southern causes for the Civil War
             Violation of Constitutional Commitments
             Finding a visceral spark
             Slave insurrections
             Conclusion: The causes of the Civil War
     Life is a zero-sum game
             Thomas Roberts Malthus
             Population versus Food Availability
             Population versus food in China
     War deaths in World Wars I and II
     The Malthus Effect
     Moral and Immoral Wars
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 4 - Chaos Theory and Generational Forecasting
     An informal discussion of forecasting
             Description of Short-Term Forecasting
             Description of Long-Term Forecasting
             Combining Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
             Exponential growth trend forecasting
             Summary of Generational Dynamics forecasting techniques
             Looking ahead to attractors
             Some techniques in forecasting methodology
             Analyzing political events
     Introduction to Chaos Theory
             Weather Forecasts and the Butterfly Effect
             Chaotic behavior and the double pendulum
             Linear and Non-linear systems
             The chaos of day to day politics
             Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy
     Introduction to attractors
             Attractors in generational systems
     Generational Dynamics world model - magic ball of yarn
             Cyclic variables in generational politics
             "Looking for reasons"
             "Basins of attraction"
             The "Puritan Flip" in Colonial America
             Phase Locking and Entrainment
             Equilibrium in economic systems
             Phase locking in the spread of technology
             Phase locking in generational systems
     The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World
             Probabilistic Forecasts
             Merging timelines
             Probability of a regional crisis war
             International situation in 2005
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 5 - World Macroeconomics
     Short-term financial forecasting
     Long-term financial forecasting and the stock market
     Short-term versus long-term forecasting
             Price / Earnings ratios
             How do we know we're close?
     What you can and cannot forecast
     Exponential growth and Price/Earnings ratios
     Fallacies and hoaxes in financial predictions
             Dow 36000 fallacy
             Dow 300 fallacy
             Harry Dent's bubble economy hoax
             Price/earnings computation errors
     Alan Greenspan's explanation for the 1990s bubble
     Major international financial crises
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 6 - Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics
     The World War II anomaly
     K-cycles in the Generational Dynamics model
             Selection of war variables
             Selection of technology and innovation variables
             Selection of financial variables
     Adding K-cycles to the Generational Model
             The World War II Timeline
             Adding the World War I Timeline
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 7 - The Singularity
     Plan for this chapter
     Scenarios after the Singularity
     Artificial intelligence versus "brute force"
     Two kinds of "brute force" algorithms
     The "granularity" of human thought
             Unpredictable choices
     The Singularity
     Can we stop the Singularity?
     Implementing version 1.0
     The Epiphany
     Potential goal-setting problems with IC v 1.0
             The "Zero-Tolerance" Problem
             Rules for IC soldiers
             Unexpected consequences of rules in chess
             The "Kill anyone who's not Chinese" problem
     Block Diagram of Intelligent Computer Algorithm
     Seeing and hearing with brute force pattern matching
     Learning and logic with the "jigsaw puzzle" algorithm
             IC experts
             Jigsaw puzzle analogy
             Knowledge Bits (KBs)
             Attributes of KBs
             "Noticing" physical objects
             Obtaining sensual data
             Example: Learning "Jane is Joe's sister"
             Self-awareness, motivations, goals and sub-goals
             Goal: Find all "sisters" in the room.
             Kinds of KBs
             Memory management and "Secondary Knowledge"
             Wisdom versus Knowledge
             Emotions, morality and logic
             Wrapping up the Intelligent Computer algorithm
     Partial proof that technological growth is exponential
     Evolution and life elsewhere in the universe
             What is intelligence?
             Population growth and competition for resources
             Natural selection in intelligent species
             "Intelligence wars": Crisis and non-crisis wars
             The maximum effective timespan
             Crisis war cycle and maximum effective lifespan
             Technology and merging timelines
     After the Singularity
             Technology development after the Singularity
     Why haven't we verifiably detected life elsewhere in the universe?
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 8 - The Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm
     History of the Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm
     Intuitive Description of Crisis Wars
     Intuitive description of non-crisis wars
             Wars which are both crisis and non-crisis
     What makes crisis and non-crisis wars different
             Gauging Public Attitudes
             Criteria indicating crisis war
             Primary criteria that identify crisis wars
             Secondary criteria that identify crisis wars
     Criteria indicating non-crisis war
             Primary criteria for a non-crisis war
             Secondary criteria for a non-crisis war
     Evaluating wars which are both crisis and non-crisis wars
     Complete Evaluation Algorithm for Crisis and Non-crisis wars
             Overview of the evaluation algorithm
             Overview of the four steps in the evaluation
             Step 1: Evaluating historical significance.
             Step 2: Determine intensity of genocidal violence
             Step 3: Determine level of political considerations
             Step 4: Determine the resolution of the war
     American Wars
     French Religious Wars
     19th century wars of Southern Africa
     Roman Crisis Wars from Buried Coin Hoards
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 9 - List of Crisis Wars
     Problems for review and research

Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model
     Summary of The Fourth Turning theory
             Identifying generations and archetypes
             Generational eras - the four Turnings
     TFT's Diagonal Diagram: How one generation flows to next
     TFT's Six Anglo-American Crisis Events (Fourth Turnings)
     TFT's Six Spiritual Awakening Periods (Second Turnings)
     Limitations and restrictions in the TFT model
     The Generational Dynamics (GD) Model
     Changes and Additions to the TFT model
     The Generational Dynamics (GD) Model
             The Principle of Localization
     Derivation of Crisis War Criteria
     Crisis War Criteria
     Criteria indicating crisis war
             Primary criteria indicating a crisis war
             Secondary criteria indicating a crisis war
     Criteria indicating non-crisis war
     Merging timelines
     Social Moments and Awakenings
             TFT restriction to modern times
             Problems with the secular/spiritual distinction
             GD Awakenings
     Using Crisis Wars as Anchors
     The First Turning -- High versus Austerity
             Defining the "Austerity" period
             TFT's Civil War anomaly
             The Nazi "Hero" Generation
     Self-Correction and Restarting the GD Model
     Applying GD to Premodern Times
     Short and long generational cycles
     Split-up of Anglo-American timeline
             The 1600s colonies and the Puritan flip
             The English 1600s timeline (Turnings schedule)
             The Colonial 1600s timeline
     Problems for review and research

Appendix: Cassandra
     Problems for review and research


End Notes

Concept Index


Book Cover
     Art work
     Front cover words
     Back cover words

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Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.