Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:comments@generationaldynamics.com.

Chapter 9 - List of Crisis Wars

This table shows, in each case, the date of the climax of the crisis war, and the date and number of years to the beginning of the next crisis war. Thus, this is a table of crisis war lengths, mid-cycle lengths and total seculum lengths.

Table of Contents

Site Home

Book Home

Table of Figures

Preface

Chapter 1 - Basics of Generational Dynamics

Chapter 2 - Crisis Wars, Awakenings and Generations

Chapter 3 - Visceral Causes of Crisis Wars

Chapter 4 - Chaos Theory and Generational Forecasting

Chapter 5 - World Macroeconomics

Chapter 6 - Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics

Chapter 7 - The Singularity

Chapter 8 - The Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm

Chapter 9 - List of Crisis Wars

  

Problems for review and research

Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model

Appendix: Cassandra

Bibliography

End Notes

Concept Index

Colophon

Book Cover

The average mid-cycle length is 67 years. The average saeculum length (beginning of one crisis war to beginning of next) is 79 years.

There are a few mid-cycle periods less than 50 years, all in ancient and medieval times. The minimum was 42 years. More research is needed to identify why such periods occur. My theory is that they're all due to unexpected invasions or from the merging of two regions and corresponding timelines. For example, if you take the Byzantine Empire, centered in Constantinople, a central crossing point surrounded by Persia, Russia, Europe and Arabia, then it's reasonable to expect that not everyone followed the same crisis war schedule.

This is an honest list, in the sense that I identified crisis wars using the criteria that I've described. However, there were some cases when I really needed more information from other sources, and in those cases I sometimes cherry-picked to get the list completed. I would guess that there are probably four or five errors in this table, but they can all be fixed with more information. At any rate, there's a good chance that any errors will cancel each other out in determining distribution of mid-cycle lengths.

                                        ---Length in years---
      Crisis War, Beginning,  Climax    War  Mid-cycle Total
                                              Period
      ------------------------------    ---  --------- -----
America
    King Philip's War   1675    1678      3      97     100
    Revolutionary War   1775    1782      7      79      86
    Civil War           1861    1865      4      76      80
    WW II               1941    1945      4

England
    Norman conquest     1064    1066      2      69      71
    Civil war           1135    1154     19      50      69
    War: Normandy       1204    1215     11      61      72
    Civil war / Wales   1276    1284      8      54      62
    Hund Yrs War begin  1338    1346      8     109     117
    War of the Roses    1455    1485     30      74     104
    Armada              1559    1588     29      50      79
    Civil War           1638    1650     12      51      63
    War Spanish Succ    1701    1714     13      79      92
    French Rev / Napol  1793    1814     21      51      72
    Franco-Prussian     1865    1870      5      68      73
    WW II               1938    1945      7

Normandy / France
    Conquer England     1064    1066      2      58      60
    Louis VI            1124    1135     11      47      58
    3rd Cru / Civil w   1182    1204     22      66      88
    Louis' 2nd crusade  1270    1285     15      53      68
    Hund Yrs War begin  1338    1346      8      69      77
    Hund Yr War redress 1415    1430     15      45      60
    Unification France  1475    1480      5      82      87
    St. Bartholomew     1562    1572     10      63      73
    30 Years War        1635    1648     13      53      66
    War Spanish Succ    1701    1714     13      75      88
    French Rev / Napol  1789    1814     25      51      76
    Franco-Prussian     1865    1870      5      68      73
    WW II               1938    1945      7

Germany
    Peace at Augsburg   1540    1555     15      63      78
    30 Years War        1618    1648?    30      53      83
    War Spanish Succ    1701    1714     13      79      92
    French Rev / Napol  1793    1814     21      51      72
    Franco-Prussian     1865    1870      5      68      73
    WW II               1938    1945      7

Spain
    Muslim conquest      711     715      4      62      66
    Charlemagne invades  777     801     24      51      75
    Muhammad v Xians     852     861      9     101     110
    al Mustansir         962     970      8      57      65
    End Umayyad caliph. 1027    1031      4      49      53
    Annex Moorish Spain 1080    1086      6      58      64
    Almohades invasion  1144    1150      6      45      51
    Alfonso reconquest  1195    1212     17     100     117
    Repel Muslims       1312    1340     28      51      79
    Xians vs Jews       1391    1420     29      59      88
    Inquisition/Reconq  1479    1492     13      68      81
    Armada battle       1560    1588     28      52      80
    Revolt in Catalonia 1640    1659     19      42      61
    War of Span. Succ.  1701    1714     13      79      92
    French Rev / Napol. 1793    1814     21      54      75
    Spanish Republic    1868    1874      6      62      68
    Spanish Civil War   1936    1939      3

Japan
    Meiji Restoration   1852    1868     16      73      89
    WW II               1941    1945      4

Ancient Greece
    Persian Wars        -507    -490     17      59      76
    Peloponnesian War   -431    -404     27      47      74
    Macedonian conquest -357    -338     19

Ancient Palestine
    King Herod Terror      -     -4       -      69       -
    Jerusalem Massacre    66     71       5      42      47
    Parthian War         113

Ancient Mecca
    Pagan wars                  592?      -      64      64
    Muslim civil war     656    665?      9

Ancient Rome
    Second Punic War    -218   -201      17      52      69
    Third Punic War     -149   -146       3      55      58
    Social/Civil War     -91    -82       9      46      55
    War with Egypt       -36    -30       6      92      98
    War with Christians   63     71       8      42      50
    Parthian War         113    117       4      76      80
    Severan Wars         193    211      18     113     131
    Empire reunited      324    337      13      69      82
    Rome sacked          406    410       4     117     121
    Byzantine War        527

Byzantine Empire
    First Persian War    527    531       4      91      95
    Defeat of Persians   622    630       8      65      73
    Revolt/Anarchy       695    715      20      63      83
    Expel Muslims        778    779       1      81      82
    Constantinople att   860    863       3      57      60
    Russian Armada       920    941      21      55      76
    Annihilate Bulgaria  996    1014     18      57      75
    Revolt v throne     1071    1081     10     108     118
    Crusades/Constantin 1189    1204     15      55      70
    Reconquest          1259    1261      2      80      82
    Civil War           1341    1347      6      75      81
    Ottoman conquest    1422    1453     31

Ottoman Empire
    Constantinople fall         1453      -      59       -
    Conquer Syria/Egypt 1512    1520      8      73      81
    War with Habsburgs  1593    1606     13      77      90
    War w/Holy League   1683    1699     16      69      85
    War with Russia     1768    1774      6      79      85
    Crimean War         1853    1856      3      52      55
    Destruction         1908    1922     14

Egypt
    Fatimid dynasty              969      -      54       -
    Mirdasid dyn/Syria  1023    1023      0      56      56
    Seljuk Tutush reign 1079    1095?    16      79      95
    Saladin's reunifica 1174    1185     11      65      76
    Malmuk empire       1250    1261     11      86      97
    Black Death         1347    1349      2      51      53
    Timur-I Lang invade 1400    1401      1     111     112
    Ottoman conquest    1512    1520      8      66      74
    Revolt ag. Ottomans 1586    1609     23     102     125
    Civil War           1711    1711      0      75      75
    Muhammad Ali        1786    1811     25      65      90
    Rev + English occup 1876    1882      6      66      72
    Egyptian Revolution 1948    1954      6

Russia
    Defeat of Tartars   1360    1380     20      82     102
    Annex Novgorod      1462    1485     23      72      95
    Livonian War        1557    1582     25      67      92
    Peasant rebellions  1649    1670     21      92     113
    Ottoman/Pugachev    1762    1783     21      70      91
    Crimean/Emancipate  1853    1861      8      54      62
    Bolshevik Revol     1915    1928     13      65      78
    Soviet collapse     1993    1993 -

(Saudi) Arabia
    Wahhabi state               1745      -      55       -
    War with Ottomans   1800    1818     18      84     102
    Ibn Saud conquest   1902    1925     23

Morocco
    Rif War             1921    1927      7

Algeria
    Rebel v Ottomans    1803     1808     6      52      58
    Awlad Sidi Shaykh   1864     1883    19      71      90
    War - independence  1954     1962     9

Iran
    Safavid dynasty est 1501    1524     23      54      77
    War with Ottomans   1578    1590     12      58      70
    Afghan/Jew persecut 1648    1662     14      60      74
    Afghan/Russia wars  1722    1736     14      68      82
    War with Russia     1804    1813      9      93     102
    Constitutional Rev  1906    1909      3      71      74
    Iran/Iraq War       1980    1989      9

Iraq:
    Ottoman Destruction 1908    1922     14      58      72
    Iran/Iraq War       1980    1989      9

Vietnam
    French Indochina    1885    1895     10      70      80
    Indochina War       1965    1980     15

China
    White Lotus Rebel   1795    1805     10      46      56
    Taiping Rebellion   1851    1864     13      68      81
    Mao/Chiang civl war 1932    1949     17

Mexico
    Mexican-Amer War    1846    1848      2      63      65
    Mexican Revolution  1911    1924     13

Philippines
    Civil wars          1755    1762      7      58      58
    Civil war           1820    1823      3      73      76
    Philippine revolut  1896    1898      2      43      45
    World War II        1941    1945      4

Problems for review and research


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.