Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
This is the complete text of the final draft of a new book,
Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny.
Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org.
Here's a list of the chapters:
- General introduction.
- Chapter 1 -- Basics and Some Myths about War
- Some people think that war is senseless. This chapter explains
why wars must happen, and why the worst crisis wars happen
when people forget what happened in the last crisis war.
- Chapter 2 -- American History
- This is a retelling of American history from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics. America's major crisis wars were King
Philip's War, the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War
- Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
- This chapter focuses on theory. Drawing on work done by Harvard
Professor Samuel P. Huntington in his book, Clash of
Civilizations, this chapter describes how regional wars expand
into larger fault line wars by expansion through identity groups. The
1990s Bosnian War is used as an example, and the "causes" of that war
are examined using the concepts of Generational Dynamics.
- Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II
- This chapter continues the theoretical development, by showing
how two major principles -- the Principle of Localization and the
process of Identity Group Expansion -- work together on regional wars
either to make them larger or to force them to a conclusion. The
Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology is explained, and it's
used to show how the coming Mideast war might lead to a world war.
The theoretical discussion is concluded with a discussion of the
difference between mid-cycle wars and crisis wars.
- Chapter 5 -- Tolstoy's War and Peace
- This chapter presents excerpts from what many consider to be the
greatest novel of all time, Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace. The
novel interests us because of its presentation of Napoleon's invasion
of Russia -- a crisis war for the French, but a mid-cycle war for the
- Chapter 6 -- Another Great Depression?
- Unfortunately, Generational Dynamics is predicting more for our
time than just a major war. It's also predicting another 1930s style
Great Depression. This chapter explains the reasons. (The graphs
and forecasting analysis will be found in Chapter 11.)
- Chapter 7 -- Awakenings in World History
- This book is mostly about wars, but there's a special delight in
studying the "awakening" periods that come midway between crisis
wars. We cover the Golden Age of Greece, the life of Jesus, and the
life of Mohammed.
- Chapter 8 -- History of Western Europe
- The chapter traces the history of Western Europe from the point
of view of Generational Dynamics. The emphasis is on the crisis wars
between France and Germany.
Wherever the symbol "" appears in the
text, it refers to an end note. Just click on the
"" to go directly to the end note.
If you're looking for something specific, try the
Concept Index, which lets you look
up a concept if you know any word in the concept.
- Chapter 9 -- Islam versus Orthodox Christianity
- The history of Eastern Europe can only be understood as a
centuries long conflict between the Orthodox Christians and the
Muslims. This chapter traces the spread of the Orthodox and Muslim
civilizations, and how they're poised for a new clash within the next
- Chapter 10 -- History of Asia
- The history of China, Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos are
analyzed from a Generational Dynamics point of view.
- Chapter 11 -- Trend Forecasting
- There are many different kinds of trends -- cyclic trends, growth
trends, fashion trends, economic trends, generational trends, and so
forth. This chapter describes how they all work, and what kinds of
forecasts you can make from each of them. The final part of this
chapter concludes the previous discussion about why we're entering a
new 1930s style Great Depression. This chapter is a little more
mathematical than the other chapters, and can be skipped by anyone not
- Chapter 12 -- The Next Century
- What's going to happen to America and the world during the next
century? It turns out that we have a pretty good idea, and it's
probably not what you expect.
- Chapter 13 -- America's Manifest Destiny and You
- How do you -- and how does the nation -- prepare for this
which pits terrorism against freedom and democracy? Answer: Choose
your battles, and take care of one another.
- Appendix -- List of Crisis Periods
- This Appendix summarizes lists all the generational timelines
described in this book, focusing on the crisis periods.
- A list of the reference books used in preparing this book.
- End Notes
- Wherever the symbol "" appears in the
text, it refers to an end note. Just click on the
"" to go directly to the end note. You may
find it easiest to keep the End Notes chapter open in a separate
- Concept Index
- The concept index lets you look up a concept as long as you know
any word in the concept.
- Software used to create this book.
- Book Cover
- Book cover.
Copyright © 2002-2016 by
John J. Xenakis.