Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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These pages contain the complete manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others. Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:comments@generationaldynamics.com.

Note: In some cases, a page reference actually refers to the bottom of the preceding page or the top of the next page.

"Strauss and Howe call this a "high" period"

William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning, an American Prophecy, Broadway Books, 1997, p. 145 [basics#64]

"Today, there are about 250 nations, comprising about 9 major civilizations"

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p.26-27 [americanhistory]

"In the year 1600, throughout what is now the United States, there were some 2 million Indians within 600 tribes speaking 500 languages."

Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., general editor, The Almanac of American History, Revised and Updated Edition, Barnes & Noble Books, 1993, p.23 [americanhistory#16]

"There is some historical evidence that a major war among these tribes had occurred in the years preceding the colonists' arrival"

Eric B. Schultz, Michael J. Tougias, King Philip's War: The History and Legacy of America's Forgotten Conflict, Countryman Press, 1999, pp. 12ff [americanhistory#19]

"The Wampanoag Indians taught the colonists how to hunt and fish"

Robert Stewart, The Illustrated Encyclopedia of Historical Facts, from the Dawn of the Christian Era to the Present Day, Marshall Editions, 2002, p. 137 [americanhistory#21]

"The relationship between English and Native American had grown inordinately more complex over forty years"

Eric B. Schultz, Michael J. Tougias, King Philip's War: The History and Legacy of America's Forgotten Conflict, Countryman Press, 1999, p. 22 [americanhistory#29]

"The financial crisis occurred in July, 1772, when the English banking system suffered a major crash."

Schlesinger, op. cit., p. 111 [americanhistory#86]

"In fact, England did nothing to strengthen its forces in America that year, and even actually reduced the size of its Navy."

George Macaulay Trevelyan, A Shortened History of England, Penguin Books, 1942, pp. 404ff [americanhistory#100]

"Once the war began, there was a strong anti-war movement of sorts in England."

Trevelyan, op. cit., p. 406 [americanhistory#102]

"His intention was to spur a massive slave insurrection or even a civil war which would end slavery."

Schlesinger, op. cit., p. 275 [americanhistory#124]

"Japan's exports of its biggest cash crop, silk, to America were almost completely cut off by the Smoot-Hawley Act."

Jude Wanniski, referencing his 1977 book, The Way the World Works, in "Remember Pearl Harbor?" appearing in WorldNetDaily, May 16, 2001, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE%5fID=22850 [americanhistory#196]

"Some 10 million of California's 35 million people -- almost 1/3 -- are Mexican immigrants, 70% of them illegal"

Steve Brown, "Illegal Immigration Turning Calif. Into 'Apartheid State,' Expert Warns," Cybercase News Service, August 20, 2003, http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=%5CNation%5Carchive%5C200308%5CNAT20030820a.html [americanhistory#270]

"he found it necessary to divide Europe into 50 separate geographical units, taking into account both terrain features (mountains, coastlines) and ethnic divisions (language, religion)"

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, Princeton University Press, 2003, pp. 82-83 [localization1#9]

"Consider a member of the Ibo ethnic group"

Donald L. Horowitz, "Ethnic Conflict Management for Policy-Makers," in Joseph V. Montville and Hans Binnendijk, eds., Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies, Lexington Books, 1990, p. 121, quoted by Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p. 68 [localization1#13]

"Khaldun's concept, asabiya, measures the cohesiveness or solidarity of a group"

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, Princeton University Press, 2003, pp. 40-41, referring to Ibn Khaldun, The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History (written in 14th century), translated and edited by Franz Rosenthal Khaldun and N. J. Dowood, Princeton University Press, 1969 [localization1#22]

"The nine major civilizations today"

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p.26-27 [localization1#23]

"Samuel P. Huntington in his book, The Clash of Civilizations"

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p.26-27 [localization1#24]

"Fault line wars go through processes of intensification, expansion, containment, interruption, and, rarely, resolution."

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p.267 [localization1#31]

"Slobodan Milosevic was appealing to Serbian nationalism."

Huntington, op cit., p. 261 [localization1#41]

"Huntington shows how identity groups rallied in the most predictable ways in the Bosnian wars:"

Huntington, op cit., p. 281 [localization1#47]

"Huntington analyzes the cause of the Bosnian war in the context of wars worldwide between Muslims and non-Muslims,"

Huntington, op cit., p. 262-65 [localization1#57]

"Wolfgang Schivelbusch who studied the results of defeat in war"

Wolfgang Schivelbusch, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning, and Recovery, 2000, translated by Jefferson Chase, Metropolitan Books, Henry Holt and Company LLC, 2001, pp. 3-35 [localization2#110]

"The effect of [defeat] outside the army -- on the people and on the government -- is a sudden collapse of the most anxious expectations"

Carl von Clausewitz, On War, 1832 edition, translated and edited by Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton, 1976), p. 231, quoted by Schivelbusch, op. cit., pp. 6-7 [localization2#112]

"the overthrow of the old regime and its subsequent scapegoating for the nation's defeat"

Schivelbusch, op. cit., pp. 10-11 [localization2#114]

"For a moment, the external enemy is no longer an adversary but something of an ally"

Schivelbusch, op. cit., p 11 [localization2#115]

"nothing stands in the way of a return to the prewar status quo"

Schivelbusch, op. cit., p 14 [localization2#116]

"the German high command shipped thousands of Christmas trees to the front lines, cutting into its ammunition shipments"

H.D.S. Greenway, "The forbidden friendship," Boston Globe, December 20, 2002, p. A31 [localization2#139]

"soldiers and officers on both sides all got together and sang Christmas carols"

Malcolm Brown and Shirley Seaton, Christmas Truce: The Western Front December 1914 (Pan Grand Strategy Series), Trans-Atlantic Publications, Inc., 1999, adapted by "The Christmas truce," BBC News online, November 3, 1998, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/special%5freport/1998/10/98/world%5fwar%5fi/newsid%5f197000/197627.stm [localization2#139]

"Germany planned a quick, total victory over France, requiring only six weeks -- too quick for the British troops to be deployed to stop the advance."

Robert Stewart, The Illustrated Encyclopedia of Historical Facts, from the Dawn of the Christian Era to the Present Day, Marshall Editions, 2002, p. 214 [localization2#143]

"Writing in 1931, Winston Churchill wrote that if Germany had continued to fight, they would have been capable of inflicting two million more casualties upon the enemy"

Winston S. Churchill, The World in Crisis, London, 1931, p. 800, quoted by Schivelbusch, op. cit., pp. 189-90 [localization2#147]

"the German high command realized that too much time had passed and the absolute military triumph over France could no longer be achieved"

Schivelbusch, op. cit., pp. 190-200 [localization2#148]

"Prince Max von Baden of the high command concluded"

Prince Max von Baden, Erinnerungen und Dokumente, Berlin, 1927, p. 344, quoted by Schivelbusch, op. cit., pp. 189-90 [localization2#149]

"Stages in Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812 (graphic)"

Jeremy Black, general editor, DK Atlas of World History, Dorling Kindersley Publishing Inc., 2001, p. 201 [tolstoy#59]

"one particularly spectacular bulb sold for the cost of a small house."

Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost, a History of Financial Speculation, Plume (Penguin Group), 1999, p. 16 [depression#52]

"Evrard Forstius, a professor of botany, became so reviled by the mere sight of tulips that he attacked them with sticks whenever he saw them!"

Chancellor, op. cit., p. 20 [depression#55]

"In the 1850s, prior to the Civil War crisis, the bubble was caused by something called 'call loans.'"

Chancellor, op. cit., p. 157 [depression#61]

"triggering a series of failures reverberating to Liverpool, London, Paris, Hamburg, and Stockholm, leading to the Panic of 1857."

Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, a History of Financial Crises, Fourth Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2000, p. 78 [depression#63]

"In the final major battle, in 480 BC, Persia had 5 million men, according to the historian Herodotus, considered the first true historian of the western world. However, modern estimates range up to 500,000 men"

Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001, p. 64 [awakenings#21]

"In this case, the great compromise occurred in 478 BC, when Sparta proposed to Athens that they form a Delian League (named after the island Delos) of all the city-states: Each ally would contribute to the league, which would use the money to drive away all Persians"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 65 [awakenings#24]

"He imposed the Ten Commandments on the people, and then developed an entire moral and religious code, a code of political and social organization."

Henri Daniel-Rops, Daily Life in Palestine at the Time of Christ, Phoenix Press, 2002, originally published as La Vie quotidienne en Palestine au temps de Jésus, 1962, pp. 31-32 [awakenings#51]

"God had punished the chosen people for their heathen practices, but then had shown mercy by ending their exile."

Daniel-Rops, op. cit., p. 32 [awakenings#53]

"Everything, then was related to the Chosen People's certainty that they were unique, different from all others and superior to them"

Henri Daniel-Rops, op. cit., pp. 32-33 [awakenings#62]

"In fact, there are three sources of information about Mohammed's life"

Sir John Bagot Glubb (Glubb Pasha), The Life and Times of Muhammad, Cooper Square Press, 1998. Originally published: Stein & Day, 1970, pp. 17, 312 [awakenings#107]

"Sir John Glubb's book"

Glubb, op. cit. [awakenings#111]

"Mohammed helped out with some of the battles"

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 69-72 [awakenings#114]

"telling him to become the messenger of God."

Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples, MJF Books, 1991, p. 16 [awakenings#116]

"Mohammed's life took a dramatic turn in 622, at age 52, when he became so popular that Mecca's ruling Quraish tribe was threatening his life."

Glubb, op. cit., p. 118 [awakenings#118]

"the purpose of the fight was to gain resources, such as food, water, gold, silver and weapons."

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 173, 200, 243, 247, 266 [awakenings#129]

"Many people, especially those who had followed him from Mecca and had no homes in Medina, were facing starvation. Mohammed was soon leading raids by Muslims against Quraish caravans"

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 163, 184 [awakenings#132]

"He would equivocate, vacillate, sometimes changing his mind or giving in to pure emotion"

Glubb, op. cit., p. 204-5 [awakenings#135]

"Many of his young followers were sons of the Quraish elders"

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 194, 270 [awakenings#136]

"Mohammed was most violent with people who attempted to prevent him from establishing his new religion."

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 308-9 [awakenings#142]

"But I disagree with anyone who says that he killed people because they criticized him or his faith"

Dr. Yuksel provides the following Quranic references for his statements: "The Quran states frequently that there is no compulsion in religion (2:256; 10:99; 88:21,22). The Quran advocates perfect freedom of belief and expression (18:29). The basic law regulating relations with unbelievers is stated in 60:8,9. Apostates can not be killed unless they fight against the believers (4:90). However, according to hadith and sunnah, teachings fabricated and attributed to Muhammad centuries after his death, a person who leaves Islam should be killed. ... The vicious laws that exist in hadith books altered Islam into a tyrannical religion. According to hadith and sunnah if a Muslim does not practice daily contact prayers (salat), he or she should be warned and if they still do not pray, they should be put in prison or killed. The perfect, complete, clear and fully detailed Quran (6:19,38,114,115,116; 11:1; 12:111; 54:17), nowhere tells us to punish those who do not obey this commandment. A careful study will show that all punishments decreed by God involve social and individual relations, not religious belief and practices. However, scholars who were puppets of corrupt theocratic kingdoms produced a myriad of vicious laws and attributed them to God (6:21; 42:21). According to the Quran, violence and belligerence are signs of disbelief (22:72)." [awakenings#147]

"At first, Mohammed had hoped to be accepted by the Jews, and even to be recognized as the Savior."

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 221, 295 [awakenings#149]

"Jews and Christians were not required to convert to Islam"

Glubb, op. cit., p. 388 [awakenings#151]

"Many of Mohammed's wives were widows"

Glubb, op. cit., pp. 237-38 [awakenings#157]

"among three community groups who were competing to inherit the mantle of Mohammed's leadership"

Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples, MJF Books, 1991, p. 22 [awakenings#162]

"The invaders created the caste system as a means of enforcing racial purity, separating the conquerors from the conquered."

J. M. Roberts, The Penguin History of the World, Penguin Books, 1995, pp. 119ff [awakenings#167]

"During the next few decades, over half of the 200,000 Jews on the peninsula formally converted to Catholicism."

Stanley G. Payne, A History of Spain and Portugal, Volume One, University of Wisconsin Press, 1973, chapter 11, online at http://libro.uca.edu/payne1/payne11.htm, pp. 208-9 [westeurope#13]

"Their secret desire was to degrade, even poison, Christian men and to have sex with Christian women: daughters, wives, even nuns"

David Nirenberg, "Conversion, Sex and Segregation: Iberian Jews and Christians after 1391," http://www.history.umd.edu/Faculty/BCooperman/Medieval/DNirenbergConvsexsegr.html [westeurope#15]

"a common charge against them was that they were 'false Christians.'"

Payne, op. cit., p. 208 [westeurope#17]

"Hundreds of thousands of Jews were forced to leave the country."

Payne, op. cit., p. 211 [westeurope#20]

"It was at this moment that the concept of manifest destiny ... sank deep into the Spanish conscience"

Manuel Fernandez Alvarez, University of Salamanca, A Short History of Spain, http://www.conquistador.com/spanhistory.html [westeurope#35]

"New discoveries and conquests came in quick succession"

Library of Congress Studies, History of Spain, http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/estoc.html [westeurope#41]

"the Normans of northern France (Normandy), led by William the Conqueror, completed their conquest of England from the Saxons"

Robert Stewart, The Illustrated Encyclopedia of Historical Facts, from the Dawn of the Christian Era to the Present Day, Marshall Editions, 2002, p. 67 [westeurope#54]

"a succession dispute arose because Henry left no male heir."

Stewart, op. cit., p. 75 [westeurope#59]

"During the awakening period of Henry II's reign, there were dramatic changes to make the law fairer"

George Macaulay Trevelyan, A Shortened History of England, Penguin Books, 1942, pp. 135, 138 [westeurope#63]

"King John suffered a crisis of confidence when he lost battles in Normandy, forcing him to cede control of most regions of Normandy"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 81 [westeurope#66]

"In 1264, a new civil war broke out between the Barons and partisans of the king"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 87, 88 [westeurope#68]

"A 14,000 man English army wiped out a 50,000 man French army in 1347, thanks to advanced weaponry"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 94 [westeurope#74]

"The Black Death reached the continent in 1348"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 93 [westeurope#77]

"Population of England and Wales (graphic)"

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, Princeton University Press, 2003, p. 163 [westeurope#78]

"Tensions between king and parliament led to a new civil war in 1386"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 98-99 [westeurope#84]

"The name Wars of the Roses is based on the badges used by the two sides, the red rose for the Lancastrians and the white rose for the Yorkists"

http://www.warsoftheroses.com/ [westeurope#86]

"Spain had a plan: They'd get rid of Queen Elizabeth"

Trevelyan, op. cit., pp. 242-257 [westeurope#91]

"Britain's great civil war began with the Scottish rebellion in 1638"

Trevelyan, op. cit., p. 295 [westeurope#95]

"the Peace at Augsburg recognized religious pluralism for the first time in Europe"

J. M. Roberts, The Penguin History of the World, Penguin Books, 1995, p. 556 [westeurope#109]

"The habit of debasing coins had begun around 1600"

Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, a History of Financial Crises, Fourth Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2000, p. 121 [westeurope#123]

"Population declined from 21 million in 1618 to 18 million in 1648"

Jeremy Black, general editor, DK Atlas of World History, Dorling Kindersley Publishing Inc., 2001, p. 196 [westeurope#128]

"About 250 separate German states were recognized as sovereign"

Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001, p. 304 [westeurope#140]

"the statesmen of the time signed because they wanted to avoid for as long as possible another violent conflict such as the one that had just ended."

Roberts, op. cit., p. 586 [westeurope#149]

"Prior to 1789, Western Europe consisted of a chain of over 300 political units with different principles of organization"

Roberts, op. cit., p. 714 [westeurope#175]

"However, the people of the British public were incredulous when Napoleon III sought friendship with England."

George Macaulay Trevelyan, A Shortened History of England, Penguin Books, 1942, p.486 [westeurope#219]

"The spread of humans from north Africa around the world (graphic)"

Geoffrey Parker, editor, Compact History of the World: A history of the world from the Stone Age to the Space Age, Barnes & Noble Books, Times Books, London, 2002, p. 14 [easteurope#20]

"The nine major civilizations today"

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996, p.26-27 [easteurope#22]

"The main problems faced by the early Muslims were determining who would be 'caliph'"

Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples, MJF Books, 1991, p. 22 [easteurope#48]

"This created a mode of thought that came to be known as Sunnism, as distinct from Shi'ism"

Hourani, op. cit., p. 37 [easteurope#56]

"Since Arab rulers spoke Arabic, the easiest way to deal with the government was to do so in Arabic"

Hourani, op. cit., p. 29 [easteurope#63]

"Starting from around the year 1000, the Islamic Empire was under attack from all sides"

Bernard Lewis, The Middle East, a Brief History of the Last 2,000 Years, Touchstone, 1995, pp. 86-87 [easteurope#75]

"The Turks wholeheartedly adopted the religion of Islam, becoming Sunni Muslims, and in some ways were more Muslim than the Arabs."

Lewis, op. cit., p. 88 [easteurope#79]

"Around 986-8, Vladimir accepted Orthodox Christianity for himself and his people."

J. M. Roberts, The Penguin History of the World, Penguin Books, 1995, p. 355 [easteurope#101]

"Around 1300, a Muslim Turkish tribe led by its chieftain, Osman, started to expand beyond its original border"

Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001, p. 123 [easteurope#106]

"In 1402, the central Asian conqueror Timur defeated the Ottomans, and almost destroyed them completely"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 125 [easteurope#107]

"However, Timur's victory over the Ottomans had one major unintentional effect: It delayed for several decades the final destruction of the Byzantine Empire"

J. M. Roberts, The Penguin History of the World, Penguin Books, 1995, p. 370 [easteurope#107]

"He arranged for [Ivan] to marry Sophia, the orphan niece of the last Greek Emperor of Constantinople, in the hope of bringing the Russians back into the Roman Church"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 271 [easteurope#117]

"In fact, submission to the pope was for most Greeks a renegade act, denying the true Church, whose tradition Orthodoxy had conserved"

Roberts, op. cit., p. 372 [easteurope#117]

"The problem was the power struggle between the tsar and boyars, the wealthy landowners who owned most of the land (as well as the peasants living on the land)"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 306 [easteurope#120]

"In 1570, he ravaged Novgorod, and massacred many of the inhabitants, whom he suspected of sympathy for the Poles"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 306 [easteurope#122]

"Under the leadership of Genghis Kahn, probably the greatest conqueror in the history of the world, they had defeated China in 1215, and then turned westward and conquered much of southern Russia by 1227"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 81 [easteurope#124]

"In 1582, Ivan was forced to sign a peace treaty with Sweden and Poland, giving up all the territory he had gained"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 308 [easteurope#127]

"In 1642, an enemy (the Cossacks) of the Crimean Tatars offered to Moscow a fortress that they had captured from the Tatars -- and Moscow refused it, to avoid conflict with the Ottoman Turks"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 308 [easteurope#136]

"The Moscow region lost half its peasants"

Fernand Braudel, A History of Civilizations, 1963, translated by Richard Mayne, Penguin Books, 1993, p. 544 [easteurope#138]

"This triggered a series of peasant rebellions, starting in the central regions in 1655, and reaching Moscow by 1662, where 7,000 peasants were executed"

Jean Reeder Smith and Lacey Baldwin Smith, Essentials of World History, Barron's Education Series Inc., 1980, p. 160 [easteurope#139]

"By 1691, some 20,000 of the faithful had burned themselves in huge fires"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 346 [easteurope#140]

"He had been educated by foreigners in a German suburb of Moscow, and became acquainted with western techniques"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., p. 162 [easteurope#148]

"he launched an attack against the Ottomans, hoping to get a trading route through the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, but failed after an initial success"

Stearns, op. cit., pp. 346, 357 [easteurope#149]

"He was initially defeated by Sweden, and might have lost the war completely, but Sweden became preoccupied fighting with Poland in the War of Spanish Succession"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., p. 172 [easteurope#150]

"He consolidated the changes made in the last crisis, strengthening the power of the Tsar, by demanding service to the government for life"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., pp. 164-65 [easteurope#151]

"The peace treaty (at Kuchuk Kaynarja) that Catherine signed with the Ottomans was one of the most important of the whole century"

Roberts, op. cit., p. 604 [easteurope#154]

"However, the most notorious episodes of Catherine's reign were the dozens of bloody rebellions of the 1760s, culminating in the savage Pugachev's Rebellion of 1773-75"

Robert Stewart, The Illustrated Encyclopedia of Historical Facts, from the Dawn of the Christian Era to the Present Day, Marshall Editions, 2002, p. 159 [easteurope#155]

"by granting amnesty to political prisoners and exiles, abolishing torture, and passing the first laws leading (during the next crisis period) to the abolition of serfdom"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 509 [easteurope#157]

"In response, the Ottomans declared war on Russia, and England and France joined on the Ottomans' side"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 188 [easteurope#162]

"and was exposed for all to see as an increasingly weak power, having been a military powerhouse at the beginning of the century"

Roberts, op. cit., p. 737 [easteurope#163]

"The loss of the Crimean War ended up being blamed on Nicholas' support of serfdom, or at least his reluctance to end it"

Roberts, op. cit., pp. 737-38 [easteurope#165]

"The weaknesses exposed by the Crimean War caused the country to industrialize, and the rebellions extended to an industrial proletariat working for the railroads, the coal mines, and the iron fields"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 511 [easteurope#168]

"The indecisive results of the war led to an antiwar movement that caused increasing opposition to the tsarist regime"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 510 [easteurope#169]

"Russia's next crisis period began for real on Bloody Sunday, January 22, 1905, when troops fired on workers demonstrating workers making demands in St. Petersburg, resulting in hundreds of casualties"

Stearns, op. cit., pp. 511-12 [easteurope#171]

"To all this was added a grave economic problem: shortage of labor, due to repeated mobilizations; disorganization of railroad transport; and failure of food and fuel supplies in the cities"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 711 [easteurope#172]

"To resist collectivization, crops were burned and livestock were slaughtered, resulting in 10-15 million peasants dying of starvation"

Stewart, op. cit., p. 229 [easteurope#181]

"Special mention should be made of Ukraine"

BBC Online, Timeline: Ukraine, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid%4f1107000/1107869.stm [easteurope#182]

"Furthermore, Christianity was unique in this regard, since the civilizations of India and China had never seriously threatened Islam to anything like the extent Christianity did, for Christianity was a world faith, with a sense of mission much like their own, and a duty to proselytize"

Bernard Lewis, The Middle East, a Brief History of the Last 2,000 Years, Touchstone, 1995, pp. 273-74 [easteurope#191]

"There are several candidates for the crucial moment, but the best choice is the defeat of the Muslims by the Habsburgs (Germans) in 1683"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 276 [easteurope#193]

"Their army was almost destroyed when Polish reinforcements arrived to help the Habsburgs, forcing the Ottoman army to retreat in disarray"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 356 [easteurope#194]

"In 1699, the Ottomans and the Habsburgs signed the Treaty at Karlowitz that clearly signaled a change between Europe and the Ottomans, and also a change between Islam and Christendom"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 276-77 [easteurope#197]

"This was a calamitous defeat of such magnitude that there has never been its like since the first appearance of the Ottoman state"

Silihdar Tarihi (Istanbul, 1928), vol II, p. 87, quoted by Lewis, op. cit., p. 277 [easteurope#197]

"After having sustained victory after victory for centuries, Muslim writers were now asking why the miserable infidels were suddenly winning over the formerly victorious armies of Islam"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 277 [easteurope#198]

"The resulting treaty at Kuchuk Kaynarja was a huge humiliation for the Ottomans, and not just because of the additional territory ceded to the Russians"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 279 [easteurope#200]

"The Ottomans had been forced to withdraw before, but only from recently captured Christian lands; but this was the first time that they had to withdraw from a Muslim land"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 280 [easteurope#201]

"This was very significant because it was the first time that a significant number of European forces were present on Ottoman soil"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 284 [easteurope#204]

"Following their stunning defeat with the Treaty at Karlowitz in 1699, the Ottomans began more and more to imitate the victors"

Lewis, op. cit., pp. 306-07 [easteurope#205]

"A "pan-Islamic" movement began among the Muslims to unify all Muslims along a common front"

Lewis, op. cit., pp. 313-14 [easteurope#206]

"These losses caused increasing discontent among the Ottoman people. The most significant development occurred in 1889, when students of the military medical school in Istanbul formed a secret society to fight the government"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 532 [easteurope#208]

"In 1914, the Ottomans entered World War I on the side of Germany, resulting in enormous dislocations. Of the three million men drafted for the army, half of them deserted"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 752 [easteurope#210]

"In the late 1800s, a Turkish identity movement had begun to form, promoting Turkish (as opposed to Ottoman) literature and culture"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 533 [easteurope#211]

"By 1919, there were so many Allied forces in Istanbul, that the Ottomans feared that the Allies intended to keep Istanbul for themselves"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 752 [easteurope#212]

"An Armenian uprising that occurred in Istanbul in 1894-96 was brutally put down, with a large-scale massacre of Armenians in Istanbul"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 532 [easteurope#215]

"In 1914, Russia organized four large Armenian volunteer guerrilla units to support the war effort against the Ottomans"

Lewis, op. cit., p. 339 [easteurope#216]

"In reaction, the Ottomans began deporting the entire Armenian population -- millions of people -- resulting in deaths of over a million Armenians in what amounted to a death march"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 752 [easteurope#216]

"Mustafa Kemal, who later took the name Attaturk (father of the Turks), led the new country in a distinctly Turkish direction"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 753 [easteurope#218]

"He even sought to purge Arabic and Persian words from the Turkish language"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 754 [easteurope#218]

"Perhaps most important is that he sought to secularize Turkish society. The caliphate, the office of the supreme spiritual leader for Sunni Muslims worldwide, was abolished"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 753 [easteurope#219]

"Perhaps also inspired by the Wars of Unification in Germany and Italy, the first Zionist Congress met in 1897 to advocate a Jewish homeland in Palestine"

Roberts, op. cit., p. 903 [easteurope#221]

"In 1917, there were ten times as many Arabs as Jews in Palestine: 700,000 Arabs, and 70,000 Jews"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., p. 34 [easteurope#223]

"By 1939, Arabs outnumbered Jews by only two to one"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., p. 34 [easteurope#224]

"Population of China in millions of people (graphic)"

Peter Turchin, op. cit., p. 169 [asia#23]

"Even in 1800, China had about 400 million people -- 300 million farmers, plus 80-100 million city folk: artisans, merchants, landlords, scholars and government officials"

John King Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution 1800-1985, Harper & Row, 1986, p. 23 [asia#26]

"That's why, even as late as the year 1800, a typical Chinese village pretty much took care of itself"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 51 [asia#27]

"Even worse, centuries of bureaucratic buildup had taken its toll. An example is the Grand Canal, the canal system that was used to deliver rice from the south to feed Beijing"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 65 [asia#31]

"In fact, the legacy of Emperor Ch'ien-lung, who ruled for sixty years until 1799, describes 'Ten Great Campaigns' to suppress rebels on the frontiers"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 38 [asia#32]

"One rebellion, for example, occurred in Taiwan in 1786-87"

Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001, p. 379 [asia#32]

"China and adjoining countries (graphic)"

Fairbank, op. cit., pp. 64, 73 [asia#33]

"It broke out in 1796, over the issues of poor public service in return for high taxes"

Fairbank, op. cit., pp. 64-65 [asia#34]

"It's just that all commerce was controlled as tightly as possible by the national and regional governing entities"

Fairbank, op. cit., pp. 97-99 [asia#41]

"coming up with the God-Worshipper's Society, which appealed to large numbers of disaffected citizens"

Fairbank, op. cit., pp. 73-79 [asia#51]

"Modern estimates are that China's population had been about 410 million in 1850 and 350 million in 1873 -- after the end of the Taiping rebellion and several other rebellions that occurred in the west"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 77 [asia#53]

"This dual strategy permitted modernization of government at the highest regional levels, but it allowed for a great deal of corruption in the countryside, where the army officers became wealthy landowners"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 219 [asia#75]

"during which some 20 to 30 million people died of starvation in a man-made famine"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 296 [asia#83]

"Mao implemented 'true' communism in China in 1958 with the Great Leap Forward. Here's a summary of how the program worked"

Jean Reeder Smith and Lacey Baldwin Smith, Essentials of World History, Barron's Education Series Inc., 1980, p. 345 [asia#89]

"First, Mao dismantled the Central Statistical Bureau, the organization responsible for keeping track of all the economic activity going on in the country"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 300 [asia#94]

"the crop reports added up to an enormous increase in production, more than a doubling of output"

Fairbank, op. cit., p. 302 [asia#102]

"Chairman Mao was disgraced by the disastrous failure of the Great Leap Forward, and his critics proliferated"

Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001, p. 1023 [asia#104]

"The Red Guards, mostly younger students, soon brought the country to the verge of chaos"

Stearns, op. cit., p. 1024 [asia#105]

"a sense of conformity, acceptance of hereditary authority, devotion to the soldier, ideal of self-discipline, and its sense of nationalism and superiority of the political unit over the family"

Smith & Smith, op. cit., p. 353 [asia#110]

"Population of England and Wales (graphic)"

Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, Princeton University Press, 2003, p. 163 [trend#35]

"Population of China in millions of people (graphic)"

Peter Turchin, op. cit., p. 169 [trend#42]

"Population of China in millions of people (graphic)"

Peter Turchin, op. cit., p. 169 [trend#45]

"This diagram shows how numerous different technologies for artificial light have always been invented at almost exactly the right time (graphic)"

Joseph Paul Martino, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, American Elsevier Pub. Co., 1975 [trend#83]

"Top speed of combat aircraft (bombers and fighters) (graphic)"

Martino, op. cit. [trend#90]

"Installed Technological Horsepower in the United States, Population of the United States, and Installed Technological Horsepower per Capita (graphic)"

Martino, op. cit. [trend#98]

"The number of transistors per chip for new chips produced by Intel"

Source: Intel Corp. The figures for the different Intel chips are as follows: 1965: 50, 1971: (4004) 2,250, 1972: (8008) 2,500, 1974: (8080) 5,000, 1978: (8086) 29,000, 1982: (286) 120,000, 1985: (386 processor) 275,000, 1989: (486 DX processor) 1,180,000, 1993: (Pentium processor) 3,100,000, 1997: (Pentium II processor) 7,500,000, 1999: (Pentium III processor) 24,000,000, 2000: (Pentium 4 processor) 42,000,000. [trend#115]

"Here's the list of technologies identified by Ray Kurzweil"

Ray Kurzweil, "The Law of Accelerating Returns," http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html [trend#125]

"The number of divorces in each year per 1,000 marriages from 1860 to 1988 (graphic)"

Andrew J. Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage, Harvard University Press, 1992, p. 21 [trend#143]

"The number of marriages ending in divorce, 1867 to 1985, based on year marriage was begun (graphic)"

Cherlin, op. cit., p. 22 [trend#154]

"A new analysis of the Japanese economy provides the answer"

Yasushi Hamao of the University of Southern California's Marshall School of Business, Jianping Mei of New York University's Stern School of Business and Yexiao Xu of the School of Management at University of Texas at Dallas, Idiosyncratic Risk and Creative Destruction in Japan, at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/fin/workpapers/papers2002/html/wpa02053.html. The PDF file for the study can be found at http://www.stern.nyu.edu/fin/workpapers/papers2002/pdf/wpa02053.pdf [trend#208]