Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


These pages contain the complete manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
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Table of Contents

Site Home

Book Home


Chapter 1 -- Basics and Some Myths about War

Chapter 2 -- American History

Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I

Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II

Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace

Chapter 6 -- Another Great Depression?

Chapter 7 -- Great Awakenings in World History

Chapter 8 -- History of Western Europe

Chapter 9 -- Islam versus Orthodox Christianity

Chapter 10 -- History of Asia

Chapter 11 -- Trend Forecasting

Chapter 12 -- The Next Century

Chapter 13 -- America's Manifest Destiny and You

Appendix -- List of Crisis Periods


End Notes

Concept Index


Book Cover

The following is a list of the books used in the preparation of this book.

[Braudel] Fernand Braudel, A History of Civilizations, 1963, translated by Richard Mayne, Penguin Books, 1993.

[Chancellor] Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost, a History of Financial Speculation, Plume (Penguin Group), 1999

[Cherlin] Andrew J. Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage, Harvard University Press, 1992

[Cook] Jean Cook, Anne Kramer and Theodore Rowland-Entwistle, History's Timeline, Kingfisher Publications Plc, 2002

[Daniel-Rops] Henri Daniel-Rops, Daily Life in Palestine at the Time of Christ, Phoenix Press, 2002, originally published as La Vie quotidienne en Palestine au temps de Jésus, 1962.

[DK] Jeremy Black, general editor, DK Atlas of World History, Dorling Kindersley Publishing Inc., 2001

[Fairbank] John King Fairbank, The Great Chinese Revolution 1800-1985, Harper & Row, 1986

[Fukuyama] Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, The Free Press (Simon & Schuster Inc.), 1992

[Glubb] Sir John Bagot Glubb (Glubb Pasha), The Life and Times of Muhammad, Cooper Square Press, 1998. Originally published: Stein & Day, 1970.

[Gould] Stephen Jay Gould, The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, Harvard University Press, 2002

[Hourani] Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples, MJF Books, 1991

[Huntington] Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Touchstone, 1996

[Kindleberger] Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, a History of Financial Crises, Fourth Edition, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2000

[Lewis] Bernard Lewis, The Middle East, a Brief History of the Last 2,000 Years, Touchstone, 1995

[Martino] Joseph Paul Martino, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, American Elsevier Pub. Co., 1975

[Parker] Geoffrey Parker, editor, Compact History of the World: A history of the world from the Stone Age to the Space Age, Barnes & Noble Books, Times Books, London, 2002.

[Payne] Stanley G. Payne, A History of Spain and Portugal, Volume One, University of Wisconsin Press, 1973, online at

[Phillips] Kevin Phillips, The Cousins' War: Religion, Politics, & the Triumph of Anglo-America, 1999

[Power] Samantha Power, "A Problem from Hell" - America and the Age of Genocide, New Republic, 2002

[Roberts] J. M. Roberts, The Penguin History of the World, Penguin Books, 1995

[Schivelbusch] Wolfgang Schivelbusch, The Culture of Defeat: On National Trauma, Mourning, and Recovery, 2000, translated by Jefferson Chase, Metropolitan Books, Henry Holt and Company LLC, 2001

[Schlesinger] Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., general editor, The Almanac of American History, Revised and Updated Edition, Barnes & Noble Books, 1993

[Schultz] Eric B. Schultz, Michael J. Tougias, King Philip's War: The History and Legacy of America's Forgotten Conflict, Countryman Press, 1999

[Smith & Smith] Jean Reeder Smith and Lacey Baldwin Smith, Essentials of World History, Barron's Education Series Inc., 1980

[Stearns] Peter N. Stearns (Editor), The Encyclopedia of World History, 6th edition, Houghton Mifflin Co., 2001

[Stewart] Robert Stewart, The Illustrated Encyclopedia of Historical Facts, from the Dawn of the Christian Era to the Present Day, Marshall Editions, 2002

[Strauss & Howe] William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning, an American Prophecy, Broadway Books, 1997

[Toynbee-1] Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History, Abridgement of Volumes I-VI by D. C. Somervell, Oxford University Press, 1946

[Toynbee-2] Arnold J. Toynbee, A Study of History, Abridgement of Volumes VII-X by D. C. Somervell, Oxford University Press, 1957

[Trevelyan] George Macaulay Trevelyan, A Shortened History of England, Penguin Books, 1942

[Turchin 1] Peter Turchin, Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (Monographs in Population Biology), Princeton University Press, 2003

[Turchin 2] Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, Princeton University Press, 2003

Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.