|Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's|
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Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has been shown to be false. There is no analyst, journalist, politician or web site in the world with anything close to the predictive success of this web site.
Note that Generational Dynamics does not predict actual events. What it predicts is the public reactions to unpleasant events. It predicts the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people.
For reference, here's a brief list of the major predictions that have appeared on this web site since 2003, and the year of first appearance. This list will be updated from time to time. For more details about any specific prediction, refer to web log for the latest articles on the subject.
See: "Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq," and "The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki."
Contrast the "Iraq civil war" prediction with the "Darfur civil war" prediction (below). I gave opposite predictions for these two wars, and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur at different points on the generational timeline.
See: "Iran's President Ahmadinejad facing a growing 'generation gap'"
The reason for this paralysis is that the generations that survived WW II are gone now. Those people did some great things -- they created the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They created these organizations and managed them for decades with one purpose in mind: That their children and grandchildren would never have to go through anything so horrible as World War II. Now all those people are gone, and the people left behind have no idea what's going on or what to do. They're unable to lead or govern. All they know how to do is whine and complain, and wait until the next disaster, the next world war, forces them to do great things as well.
Contrast the "Iraq civil war" prediction (above) with the "Darfur civil war" prediction. I gave opposite predictions for these two wars, and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur at different points on the generational timeline.
See: "France rejects EU Constitution," and "Angela Merkel tries to unify a fractured Europe on its 50th birthday."
|Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 11-Aug-2008|
|W. Europe||1||Arab Israeli||3|
The Clash of Civilizations world war will be fought between big powerful adversaries -- a new "axis" most likely consisting of China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea and their allies, versus America, India, Russia, Japan, and the UK and their allies.
The predictive value of generational theory was established by Neil Howe and the late William A. Strauss, the founding fathers of generational theory. In their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning, they write, "Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning. ... A spark will ignite a new mood. Today, that same spark would flame briefly but then extinguish.... This time, though, it will catalyze a Crisis." Thus, they didn't predict the 9/11 attacks, but they did predict that some event, some spark, would change the mood of the American public into a Crisis mood. It's not the event that can be predicted; it's the attitude of the public to unpleasant shocks and surprises that can be predicted.
Strauss and Howe developed and established generational theory for the Anglo-American timeline since the War of the Roses in the late 1400s.
Generational Dynamics extends generational theory to be valid for all places and times in history. This involves major theoretical extensions of the generational model, to the point where it's now a very sophisticated scholarly subject that could serve as a college undergraduate or graduate major. It's also an interdisciplinary subject, involving history, comparative history, mathematics, chaos theory, sociology, population dynamics, economics, macroeconomics, system dynamics, and even the theory of evolution.
In 2003, when the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology was developed, this web site was set up as a testing ground. Since 2003, over a thousand articles have appeared on this web site, most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those articles are still available on this web site, so anyone who wishes can go back and find the original predictions.
Note that it's easy to get a million predictions right: Just make two million predictions. That's why it's important to note that no Generational Dynamics prediction has turned out to be wrong.
The generational methodology can be used to make very accurate predictions, but only for certain types of predictions.
The reason for this success is because the concepts of Chaos Theory and System Dynamics, both well-established disciplines, have been applied to determine what kinds of predictions can be made. Thus, all these predictions are "trend predictions," not "chaotic event" predictions.
It's impossible to predict the attitudes or behaviors of any person or any group of politicians, but it IS possible to predict the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and how they react to events. The success of this web site since 2003 indicates that this claim is true.