These are the major predictions posted on this web site since 2003,
using the generational forecasting methodology.
Hundreds of articles have been posted on this web site since 2003,
most containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of
those predictions have come true, or are trending true. None has
been shown to be false. There is no analyst, journalist, politician
or web site in the world with anything close to the predictive
success of this web site.
Note that Generational Dynamics does not predict actual events. What
it predicts is the public reactions to unpleasant events. It
predicts the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people,
entire generations of people.
For reference, here's a brief list of the major predictions that have
appeared on this web site since 2003, and the year of first
appearance. This list will be updated from time to time. For
more details about any specific prediction, refer to web log for the
latest articles on the subject.
First appearance in 2003
Macro economy (2003): We're entering a new 1930s style
Great Depression, and the stock market will fall to Dow 4000 or
Iraq (2003): There would be no civil war and no
anti-American uprising, and any that start would fizzle quickly.
Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the genocidal
Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. A crisis civil war in Iraq is thus
impossible; if any civil war occurs, then it will fizzle quickly.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq tried to incite a civil war by bombing an ancient Shi'ite mosque in
February, 2006. However, it fizzled within a year or so, and was
stopped by President Bush's "surge," despite widespread belief that
the surge would be completely unsuccessful.
Contrast the "Iraq civil war" prediction with the "Darfur civil war"
prediction (below). I gave opposite predictions for these two wars,
and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur
at different points on the generational timeline.
Iran (2003): Pro-American and pro-Western student
demonstrations (like America in the 60s) would continue.
Like Iraq, Iran is in a generational Awakening
era, leading to a "generation gap," and widespread demonstrations by
the college-age generation against the older generations.
America (2004): Men and women would return to
stereotypical gender roles, with women focused increasingly on the
People misunderstand the 1950s if they think
that women were "oppressed" at that time. Actually, they had
survived the horrors of WW II, and considered it their right to stay
at home with the kids, and not be forced to work at distasteful
"Rosie the Riveter" jobs. Feminism changed that attitude, and moved
women into the workplace. But now, young college-educated women are
massively deciding they'd rather stay home with the kids. See: "Gender gap replaced by a marriage gap or mother gap" and "'It's going to be the 1950s all over again.'"
America (2004): Politicians will resort to bitter
fighting, and become less and less able to get anything done.
This happens during generational Crisis eras.
The American government has been almost paralyzed into inaction since
2004, and the same is true of France, Israel, Japan, China, and other countries.
The reason for this paralysis is that the generations that survived
WW II are gone now. Those people did some great things -- they
created the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World
Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They
created these organizations and managed them for decades with one
purpose in mind: That their children and grandchildren would never
have to go through anything so horrible as World War II. Now all
those people are gone, and the people left behind have no idea what's
going on or what to do. They're unable to lead or govern. All they
know how to do is whine and complain, and wait until the next
disaster, the next world war, forces them to do great things as
Darfur (2004): The UN would be completely irrelevant, and
would have no effect on the Darfur civil war. It will continue until
it's run its course.
Contrast the "Iraq civil war" prediction (above) with the "Darfur
civil war" prediction. I gave opposite predictions for these two
wars, and both predictions have come true, because the two wars occur
at different points on the generational timeline.
China (2004): China is headed for a major internal civil
war, as well as a war with the U.S. over Taiwan with absolute
Europe (2005): The proposed Constitution would NOT be
approved. There will be a new European war, one component of which
will probably be France versus Britain.
Of all the predictions I've made, this is the
one that surprises most people. My response is this: England and
France have had regular wars at least since 1066, and there's
absolutely nothing new this time that would change that. Many were
surprises. The War of the Spanish Succession was a great shock to
everyone, and its climaxing battle, the 1709 battle of Malplaquet, was
a great shock to everyone for its genocidal ferocity. The French
Revolution and subsequent Napoleonic wars were a surprise. The 1871
Paris Commune was a civil war, but it was such a shock that I think a
lot of people today still don't believe it could have happened.
Lebanon (2005): Despite widespread fear following many
assassinations, there will be NO new civil war in Lebanon.
After Lebanon's brutal 1980s civil war,
including the bloody Sabra and Shatila massacre, the Lebanese people
have been terrified that something might trigger another civil war.
It was feared that the assassination of Hafiq Hariri would be that
trigger. However, Generational Dynamics says that a new civil war at
this time is impossible. See: "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock."
First appearance since 2006
Lebanon (2006, as war began): Israel would fight an
aggressive "existential war," while Hizbollah would fight
World (2003): A new "Clash of Civilizations" world war.
Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 11-Aug-2008
The adjoining "conflict risk" graphic (updated on 8-Aug-2008) shows the
"Six most dangerous regions in world" -- places where a regional war would most likely
spread to a world war because of interlocking treaties and alliances.
In addition, a worldwide financial crisis or a bird flu pandemic
would also trigger a world war.
The Clash of Civilizations world war will be fought between big
powerful adversaries -- a new "axis" most likely consisting of China,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, North Korea and their allies, versus America,
India, Russia, Japan, and the UK and their allies.
The predictive value of generational theory was established by Neil
Howe and the late William A. Strauss, the founding fathers of generational theory. In their
1997 book, The Fourth Turning, they write, "Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a
few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.
... A spark will ignite a new mood. Today, that same spark would
flame briefly but then extinguish.... This time, though, it will
catalyze a Crisis." Thus, they didn't predict the 9/11 attacks, but
they did predict that some event, some spark, would change the mood of
the American public into a Crisis mood. It's not the event that can
be predicted; it's the attitude of the public to unpleasant shocks and
surprises that can be predicted.
Strauss and Howe developed and established generational theory for
the Anglo-American timeline since the War of the Roses in the late
Generational Dynamics extends generational theory to be valid for all
places and times in history. This involves major theoretical
extensions of the generational model, to the point where it's now a
very sophisticated scholarly subject that could serve as a college
undergraduate or graduate major. It's also an interdisciplinary
subject, involving history, comparative history, mathematics, chaos
theory, sociology, population dynamics, economics, macroeconomics,
system dynamics, and even the theory of evolution.
In 2003, when the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology was
developed, this web site was set up as a testing ground. Since 2003,
over a thousand articles have appeared on this web site, most
containing specific Generational Dynamics predictions. All of those
articles are still available on this web site, so anyone who wishes
can go back and find the original predictions.
Note that it's easy to get a million predictions right: Just make two
million predictions. That's why it's important to note that no
Generational Dynamics prediction has turned out to be wrong.
The generational methodology can be used to make very accurate
predictions, but only for certain types of predictions.
The reason for this success is because the concepts of Chaos Theory
and System Dynamics, both well-established disciplines, have been
applied to determine what kinds of predictions can be made. Thus,
all these predictions are "trend predictions," not "chaotic event"
It's impossible to predict the attitudes or behaviors of any person
or any group of politicians, but it IS possible to predict the
attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations
of people, and how they react to events. The success of this web site
since 2003 indicates that this claim is true.