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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Feb-2021
2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials

Web Log - February, 2021

2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials

China may intervene in Myanmar

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from

Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials

Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi in happier days, before she turned into Hitler
Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi in happier days, before she turned into Hitler

The military in Myanmar (Burma) on Sunday arrested the country's nominal leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and about 45 other government officials, in a military coup. Army chief Min Aung Hlaing declared a state of emergency, and claims that the state of emergency will last a year, and then there will be new elections.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party won a landslide victory two months ago in November's parliamentary elections, with 80% of the seats. The army's political party suffered a huge defeat, and risked losing a great deal of power when the new parliament was seated, which was scheduled for today (Monday).

In 2010, the army released Suu Kyi from detention after 21 years. She had been under detention since the 1988 student protests, in which she participated. During her time in detention, she won a Nobel Peace Prize.

She went into politics and became country leader under the condition that she "share power" with the army. There have been numerous disagreements between the two, but apparently there was always one area of agreement: Aung Sang Suu Kyi and the army and the Buddhist monks, led by monk Ashin Wirathu, committed massive genocide, atrocities and ethnic cleansing on ethnic Rohingya Muslims. Suu Kyi still retains her Nobel Peace Prize anyway.

On Monday, the NLD issued a statement that had been written by Suu Kyi in advance, in anticipation of the coup. In the statement, Suu Kyi called on the country’s 55 million people to oppose a return to “military dictatorship.” The implication is that she is asking her supporters to protest and riot.

How Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a useful idiot

Cox's Bazar refugee camp for Rohingyas in Bangladesh, fleeing from Burma (al-Jazeera)
Cox's Bazar refugee camp for Rohingyas in Bangladesh, fleeing from Burma (al-Jazeera)

Army general Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the coup, became head of the army in 2011. That was the same year that Burma's security forces began committing atrocities on Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State. The atrocities were supported by Buddhist monks, led by Buddhist Monk Ashin Wirathu. The United Nations described it as "a textbook example of ethnic cleansing." The atrocities included gang rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Aung Sang Suu Kyi told reporters nothing had happened.

In 2013, a mob of Buddhists attacked a Rohingya village, hacking 20 boys to death, and reduced an entire established community of 12,000 Muslims, including homes, shops and mosques, to ashes and rubble. Aung Sang Suu Kyi told reporters nothing had happened.

A massive period of full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing began in August 2017. Tens of thousands were killed, and 730,000 refugees were forced across the border into Bangladesh, where they're still living in the crowded, filthy Cox's Bazar refugee camp.

In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague held a trial on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and defended the army, saying that nothing had happened.

So Aung Sang Suu Kyi is just a useful idiot, becoming a war criminal herself and serving the needs of the Burmese army war criminal, by presenting a sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their country.

These atrocities have been going on since 2011, but almost nobody cared, or even cares much now, because of Aung Sang Suu Kyi's tired, weary, female face, reciting the words of her puppetmaster Min Aung Hlaing. Most Burmese people are well aware of the genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas. But they aren't bothered by it. They love it. "Go on!" you might imagine millions of Burmese saying in unison. "Torture the Rohingyas some more! Rape them some more! Slit their throats, so that their impure blood waters the furrows of our farmland!"

The Burmese hatred of the Rohingyas is not rare. That kind of ethnic hatred is common in several countries today and recently. It's the rule. It's the Chinese hatred of Uighurs. It's the Zimbabwe Shona hatred of the Nbdele. It's the Syrian Alawite hatred of Arab Sunnis. It's the Rwandan Hutu hatred of Tutsis. It's the Nazi hatred of Jews. In America today, it's the Democrats' hatred of the 74 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters, as I described at length in "12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook".

Aung Sang Suu Kyi sold herself, her self-respect, and her soul out to become a useful idiot for the Burmese army war criminals. As often happens by groups united only by hatred and criminality, the army and Aung Sang Suu Kyi have now become enemies. The army has arrested Aung Sang Suu Kyi and dozens of people in her government, but the army just lost an election in a landslide, and they can't arrest the millions of people who supported her. (This is also a lesson for America.)

Aung Sang Suu Kyi has called on her millions of supporters to oppose the coup with protests. This could easily unravel into full-scale riots. However, the Burmese security forces were extremely violent for years against the Rohingyas, and they won't hesitate to be equally violent against their own people. They can also count on support from the Chinese Communists, who conduct their own violence against Uighurs, Tibetans, Buddhists, Christians, and anyone who disagrees with them.

China may intervene in Myanmar

Myanmar and China share a common border, and they have a great deal in common, especially since both are committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslims, of Rohingyas and Uighurs, respectively. That must give them a lot to talk about, to discuss the best methods for torture and enslavement. Indeed, in a meeting last month with Min Aung Hlaing, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called the two countries “brothers” while praising the military’s “national revitalization.” Myanmar has promised to "continue to support China's position on issues related to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang." They also support each other in the United Nations, when they're accused of crimes against humanity. It takes one to know one.

China is heavily involved in building Myanmar's infrastructure, including a joint construction project to build the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The CMEC focuses on 12 areas including basic infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, finance, human resource development and telecommunications.

China is also practicing "vaccine diplomacy," by promising to provide 300,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines to Myanmar.

However, China and Burma have also had strong disagreements over separatist ethnic groups. In August 2009, there was violent fighting between Burma's army and rebels from the Kokang ethnic group. This angered the Chinese because the Kokang are a Han Chinese minority, and got China's army involved briefly.

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Shan state

The wild card in this situation is the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which is demanding a separate state for the Kachin ethnic group. They've joined together with the Shan ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma, along the border with China, to form a "northern alliance" against Burma's army. In northern Shan state, intense fighting has occurred since January 2018 and intensified since December 2020. There are an estimated 7 ethnic armed organizations, 20 militia groups, and 7 Border Guard Forces (BGFs) actively engaged in an armed independence movement against the Myanmar government.

Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter")

62 years have passed since the climax of the last generational crisis war, so Burma is ripe for cycling around and having a new violent ethnic civil war. China was heavily involved in the 1950s crisis war, and they would be involved in a new Myanmar civil war, possibly destabilizing the entire region.

Pretty much everyone is shocked that the army engineered this coup at this time. Analysts are puzzled by why the army took this step right now, since they pretty much control everything anyway, even with Aung San Suu Kyi as the nominal leader.

So the following is speculation: Perhaps the Burmese army has intelligence that sees signs of new KIA activity, and they want to lock everything down. As I said, this is speculation, but the current situation appears to be potentially very unstable, with an army coup, with threats of protests and riots by Aung Sang Suu Kyi's millions of supporters, and with the possibility of protests by the Kachin and Shan ethnic groups. It's necessary to watch the situation in Myanmar very carefully in the next few weeks.


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