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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Aug-2008
A possible new alignment in Europe and Central Asia

Web Log - August, 2008

A possible new alignment in Europe and Central Asia

Russian language blogs provide a complex and threatening picture.

I'm grateful to a web site reader for sending me the following message, that I received just as I was finishing up my article, "The gathering storm in the Caucasus":

"Reading through Russian language blogs (with some very well informed participants), I have a feeling [that they expect] some kind of overhaul in South Europe - Caucasus region - Middle East politics. The main idea is to minimize US and NATO influence by bringing together Turkey, Russia and Iran as major players. Turkey military, traditionally West leaning and anti-Islamic being promised to keep upper hand in new nationalist, moderately religious, economically independent state, which doesn't have to bow to EU anymore. Iran and Russia providing energy for industry and markets for goods.

Whoever joins this union is accepted. Others, especially financially and politically dependent on US and EU, will be crippled by sanctions (energy supply infractions). All these new pro-western. pro-liberal elites in the former USSR and Eastern Europe are considered the main targets of Russian foreign policies. With a serious economic crisis unfolding, the West going to be less prone to back these small countries with funding.

First, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary will take different approach. Others will follow or fall (Estonia and Latvia, but not Lithuania). The Kurds, probably, will gain independence in North Iraq, but not US-oriented. Israel will sign multiple peace agreements, giving away [Golan Heights] and providing for Palestinians better territorial conditions.

Important part: Given the relations with Azerbaijan and Central Asia - all Muslim and turkish-like nations. Most unexpected outcome - Much wider spread of moderate, Sunni Islam all over Russia with support from Orthodox church and government structures. Some politics see this as only choice to stop dying off Russian population in Northern Russia."

This message provides a picture of a very complex Russian plan to counter U.S. influence in Russia's backyard, and to punish East European "Úlites" for siding with Europe and the U.S.

According to this message, based on postings by knowledgeable Russians, Turkey, Russia and Iran form an anti-West alliance and use their control of gas and oil supplies to gain hegemony over Western allies.

There are a couple of very interesting things that particularly are worthy of more research. First, we've frequently discussed radical "Islamist" Sunni Islam -- al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Muslim Brotherhood, Jemaah Islamiah in Indonesia, GSPC (Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Northern Africa), and so forth.

However, Turkey and some central Asian countries are also Sunni Muslim, but not allied with the al-Qaeda groups. According to the message, these groups will ally with Russian Orthodox community.

The message closes by referring to what many see as a huge Russian problem today: The negative growth of the Russian population.

What's missing from this analysis is the same thing that's missing from Western analyses: The recognition of a coming world war. Everyone is assuming that things will continue to evolve in the same manner as before. Regular readers of this web site know that that isn't going to happen.

The three nations forming this new alliance -- Turkey, Russia and Iran -- are all countries that I would expect would be allied with the West against China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and others in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. The exact nature and timing of these alliances of course cannot be predicted, since they depend on chaotic events that can't be predicted. But if this message is correct, then it illuminates an important scenario that the world will be following in the coming months. (18-Aug-2008) Permanent Link
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