Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-May-2008
Annual progress report on the Generational Dynamics web site.

Web Log - May, 2008

Annual progress report on the Generational Dynamics web site.

Generational Dynamics web site traffic is growing.

Generational Dynamics web site -- average daily web pages and distinct user sessions -- not including search engine requests -- August 2003 to April 2008
Generational Dynamics web site -- average daily web pages and distinct user sessions -- not including search engine requests -- August 2003 to April 2008

During the last year, the traffic to this web site has been growing steadily.

The adjoining graph shows that traffic to this web site has almost doubled in the last year. It was almost zero in 2003.

Based on this data and on web site log files, I estimate that there are about 5 or 6 thousand regular readers who check in once a day or once every few days, though of course I don't know who you are. An average person coming to this site reads 3.1 pages during his visit.

Incidentally, I have no idea what caused that bump up in mid-2005, or the bump down in mid-2007.

The web site now has over 1,000 articles, totalling more than 1.7 million words. These articles contain specific Generational Dynamics predictions, all of which are true or are trending true. None has been proven false.

(See "List of major Generational Dynamics predictions" for more information.)

I've also recently added the "Country Studies" section of the web site, something that's been a dream of mine for a long time. The information for each country is already pretty useful, since it contains pointers to a number of other resources, but what I'd really like to accomplish is a generational history of each country. I'll be working on those this year.

(Click here for Index to Generational Dynamics Country Studies)

The country analyses that I've posted in the web log articles have been getting increasingly precise. As I look back at some of the things I wrote in 2003 and 2004, the predictions were right on target, but a lot of the text had rough edges. During the last year, in analyses of Japan, Pakistan, Iran, China, Malaysia, Burma, Kenya, Zimbabwe, and other countries, the generational histories and analyses have become much more nuanced.

This is all thanks to the fact that generational theory itself has advanced quite a bit in the last year, with a better understanding of Awakening and Unraveling eras. We also saw the discovery of a number of examples of the mind-blowing 58-year hypothesis, which shows how catastrophic events that occur to a generation of children reverberate in policy 58 years later, when those children reach age 63 and above.

I'm really quite excited about what I've accomplished in developing generational theory to this extent. I've accomplished things that, ten years ago, I would have insisted were mathematically impossible. I've been working on this obsessively now for six years, and it's a large complex subject. If I were to teach a college course on it, it would take a couple of semesters to go through all the basics, and then there would be all kinds of possibilities for further research at the undergraduate or graduate level. It's also an interdisciplinary subject, involving history, mathematics, economics, macroeconomics, system dynamics, chaos theory, complexity theory, and even the theory of evolution. I just wish that the news weren't so bad.

Applying new developments in generational theory to today's world, we've been able to show where suicide bombers come from and how al-Qaeda motivates them. Al-Qaeda's major tool is the internet, which permits radical Islamist terrorists in Pakistan's tribal areas to develop "Prophet/Hero" relationships with young Muslims around the world, directing them to commit "altruistic suicide" through bombings.

And lastly, we can't forget the deepening financial crisis. This is one of the few web sites in the world that's told you exactly what's going on. And it's the ONLY web site in the world that has, since 2003, accurately told you what's coming.

In fact, when you put together the financial and country analyses, this is the only web site in the world that tells you comprehensively what's going on in the world and what's coming. I truly believe that this web site provides a public service unlike anything else in the world, and I take my obligation to provide you with accurate, credible information and predictions very seriously.

As I said above, I know that there are a lot of you reading this web site regularly, though I don't know who you are. But I do know something about you, based on the e-mail messages I get.

The people who read this web site regularly want to know what's going on in the world so that they can prepare for it.

As I always say: You can't stop what's coming, any more than you can stop a tsunami, but you can prepare for it by running to higher ground. Treasure the time you have left and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

I'm looking at different alternatives for how to permit publicly posted comments and debate. One issue is that you have to deal with abusers, haters, nutjobs, viagra salesmen, porn merchants, trolls, spammers, and other undesirables. You'd be amazed by how many of these I get already from the "Comment" page on this web site. It doesn't matter now since I simply delete them, but if they were posted automatically it would be a problem.

In the meantime, I still encourage people to send me comments by e-mail or the "Comment" page. I'm still managing to keep up with all e-mail questions sent to me, though it sometimes takes a few days for me to get back with a response, depending on volume of e-mail. So if you have a question or comment or correction or complaint, by all means send me an e-mail message, or use the "Comment" link at the top of this page. (6-May-2008) Permanent Link
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