Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Sep-06
Bob Woodward says that Iraq insurgency will get worse in 2007

Web Log - September, 2006

Bob Woodward says that Iraq insurgency will get worse in 2007

It should be no surprise to readers of this web site that it's Woodward who's in a "State of Denial"

In his new book, State of Denial, the big bombshell is that the Iraqi insurgency is getting worse, and that it's spreading throughout the Mideast.

This should not be a surprise to any regular reader of this web site.

On August 19, 2003, right after the terrorist bombing of the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad, I wrote an article describing the possible scenarios where Iraq was going.

In that article, I was explaining that an Iraqi uprising against the American "occupiers" would not happen, because Iraq is in a generational awakening era, since we're just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

Here's what I wrote in August, 2003:

"That's why you're seeing massive riots and demonstrations among the Shi'ites in southern Iraq, but you're not seeing massive violence against the American occupiers. There's no "Tet offensive" and no Vietnam-like "quagmire" in the cards for the Americans.

Terrorist acts during this period can thus have the effect of backfiring against the terrorists. The young people taking part in massive demonstrations and riots sometimes take a deep breath and say, "Whoa! This is farther than we wanted to go." The result is that public opinion begins to turn against the terrorists rather than (in this case) the Americans.

That's not to say there aren't dangers, and here we'll point out two major ones:

First, the terrorist attacks may continue and get worse. Terrorism is more a political technique rather than a military technique. Al Qaeda may succeed in increasing the level of terrorist attacks in order to influence American public opinion.

And second, the terrorist acts may presage a larger regional war involving the Palestinian Arabs and the al Qaeda against Americans in Iraq. Iraq is in an awakening period, but the Palestine region is just about to enter a crisis period. Some analysts claim that the terrorist acts are being perpetrated by Palestinian Arabs and "Mujahadeen" being paid thousands of dollars each, funded by Saddam and Osama bin Laden, arriving from Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The really dangerous scenario is that large numbers of Palestinian and "mujahadeen" terrorists will be motivated by identity group relationships to move into Iraq as a theatre of war against the Americans. That isn't happening now, but it's one of several possible scenarios that may unfold in the Mideast region during the next few months and years."

Nobody else was predicting anything like this in 2003. I predicted it, based on the principles of Generational Dynamics, and it turned out to be absolutely right.

Here's what Bob Woodward is saying in his book and will say on Sunday's 60 Minutes, according to a release by CBS News:

Of course this whole thing is buried in political silliness. Bloody insurgent attacks in Iraq lead the news every day, and any American who doesn't know that the insurgency is getting worse is completely oblivious.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006
W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3
Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2
China 2 North Korea 2
Financial 3 Bird flu 3
Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

But if you strip off the political nonsense, Woodward is absolutely right. It's what I said in 2003, but Woodward and other journalists don't want to face up to what's really going on:

We should be preparing for that war, but Woodward and all other journalists are sunk so deep in political shit that they're all in a "state of denial." The same is true of all the Washington politicians of both parties, who seem to get stupider and stupider every day. Just about the only person left in Washington that I trust to know what's actually going on in the world is Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who was born in 1932, and is in the Silent Generation. As I've said many times, I dread the day when Rumsfeld is replaced by someone from the Boomer generation or Generation-X, since no one in those generations in either party will have a clue what to do.

While we're discussing this, let's note that there was a leak this past week of a confidential document called the "National Intelligence Estimate." Following the leak, the "key judgments" of the document have been declassified.

Some of the key judgments are as follows:

All of this is true, and all of it is feeding into the rising tide of violence throughout the region. But the important thing is that this is a trend that's been going on for decades. Islamist extremists have been conducting an increasing pattern of attacks against America since the 1970s. It's true that Iraq has become a cause célèbre, but it's only the latest in a whole line of causes célèbres that have motivated Islamists, things that have included support for the Shah of Iran and the the use of American bases in Saudi Arabia and other Mideast countries. Recently, the Danish cartoon controversy has become a cause célèbre for jihadists. But the main cause célèbre was then and is today American support of Israel.

While we're at this, there was one more bit of news on Friday.

State Department terrorism expert Frank Urbancic testified to Congress that Hezbollah is a capable terrorist organization with a growing reach.

"Hezbollah has supported terrorist activities in the Palestinian territories since at least 2000, by providing financial, training and logistical support to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian terrorist groups," he said.

Hezbollah has been particularly successful in linking up with Palestinian terrorist groups, and it's expanding its links into Central and South America. "We could think of it perhaps as almost an octopus, with its head in southern Lebanon and tentacles moving around the world," he said.

What we see is a rising tide of violence around the world, a rising tide that's been growing exponentially for decades. It takes a complete idiot to think that this began with the Iraq war in 2003, but there are plenty of idiots in Washington and in the press.

State of Denial is a great title for Bob Woodward's new book, but unfortunately the phrase applies to Woodward himself, as well as to everyone else in Washington (Rumsfeld, hopefully, being an exception), because none of them want to face up to what's happening. (30-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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