|Modern Generational Theory|
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Table of Contents
Introduction to the 2020 Anniversary Edition
Preface to Original Edition Predicting the future America and the 'Clash of Civilizations' Limitations of Generational Dynamics A Note to Skeptics Web Site Credits
Chapter 1 -- Basics and Some Myths about War Doomed to repeat the same mistakes The "Generation Gap" and the Generational Cycle Fault Lines Fault Lines and Generation Gaps Crisis, Austerity, Awakening and Unraveling Periods Example: From Revolutionary War to Civil War Cause versus Timing of War Example: From Mideast Crisis to Mideast Crisis American Fault Lines since World War II How long is an 80-year cycle? Didn't humans use to have a shorter lifespan? Merging Timelines Things happen in their time Why is war necessary?
Chapter 2 -- American History Adjust your point of view The Colonists versus the Indians -- 1675-78 Aftermath of King Philip's War The Great Awakening of the 1730s and 40s The Revolutionary War -- 1772-1782 The pursuit of the war Aftermath of the war The Awakening of the 1820s and 1830s The American Civil War, 1857-65 Causes and Timing of the Civil War Why was there no "Civil War II"? Aftermath of the Civil War The Awakening of 1890-1920 World War I The Great Depression and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act World War II World War II without Hitler? A world with two superpowers The Korean War The Vietnam War Vietnam Syndrome September 11, 2001 The character of a nation A brief word about Mexico The future of the United States
Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I Applying the Principle of Localization Identity Groups and Fault Line Wars Civilizations and Fault Line Wars The Bosnian Conflict Why did America support the Bosnian Muslims? The Character of a Nation What was the "cause" of the Bosnian war?
Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II "Identity Group Expansion" versus "The Principle of Localization" Picking sides in the Clash of Civilizations Forecasting the coming Mideast War and its aftermath A Brief Historical Analysis The future in the Mideast Will this be the clash of civilizations? The Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology Overcoming Forecasting Limitations Methodology Part I: Historical Analysis Methodology Part II: Economic Analysis Methodology Part III: Monthly Current Attitudes Analysis Crisis Wars versus Mid-Cycle Wars Winners and Losers: The process of national transformation Transformation of the defeated nation Recognizing the depth of transformation Why wasn't World War I a Crisis War for Germany? A different view of World War I
Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace Why did Napoleon invade Russia? The Russian Background Napoleon's advance to Moscow Momentum Wars: The French reach Moscow The Council of War Moscow and the Destruction of Napoleon's Army Napoleon and Hitler
Chapter 6 -- Another Great Depression? Irrational Exuberance in the 1990s Investor hysteria Bubbles in American history Tulipomania American bubbles Can Federal agencies protect us from a new depression? The "Crusty Old Bureaucracy" Theory What does a "depression" mean for our lives?
Chapter 7 -- Great Awakenings in World History Understanding Awakenings The Golden Age of Ancient Greece Persian Wars, 510-478 BC The Awakening Period Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC The spread of Greek Culture The generational analysis Judaism and the Spread of Christianity Judaism and Diaspora A Jewish Homeland King Herod Aftermath of Herod: Jesus Christ and Christianity Converting to a new religion Proselytizing and Non-Proselytizing Religions Top-Down and Bottom-Up Religions The Teachings of Mohammed The early life of Mohammed The Years in Medina (Yathrib) The Conquest of Mecca Aftermath of Mohammed's death Hinduism and the Life of The Buddha
Chapter 8 -- History of Western Europe Medieval Spain Spain's Anti-Jewish Pogroms of the 1390s The Spanish Inquisition and the Reconquest -- 1480s-1490s The Golden Age of Spain and Manifest Destiny Medieval England The Norman Conquest in 1066 Civil War, 1135-54 War with Normandy and Magna Carta, 1204-15 Civil war and war with Wales, 1264-1282 Hundred Years' War begins, 1337-47 Civil war and Welsh Revolt, 1386-1409 Wars of the Roses, 1455-85 War with Spain, 1559-88 Britain's Great Civil War, 1638-60 Aftermath of the Civil War: The Glorious Revolution The Protestant Reformation in France and Germany Religious wars in Germany Religious wars in France Thirty Years' War German Civil War begins, 1618 The war expands Aftermath of the Thirty Years' War The War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714 Aftermath of the War of Spanish Succession The French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars, 1789-1815 Prelude From Bankruptcy to Waterloo Could the French Revolution have been predicted? Aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars The Revolutions of 1848 The Crimean War, 1853-56 Wars of German Unification -- 1864-1871 The future of France and Germany
Chapter 9 -- Islam versus Orthodox Christianity The World prior to Mohammed The spread of humans and civilizations The rise and fall of the Roman Empire The separation of Orthodox and Catholic Christianity The Rise and Fall of the Muslim empires The spread of Islam The invasions of the Asians The Seljuk Turks The Kingdom of Jerusalem Catholics vs. Orthodox: The Great Schism The Slavs: Russian Orthodox The Ottoman Empire and the fall of Constantinople Russia's Generational Timeline Livonian War, 1557-82 Russian Conflict Fault Lines Peasant Rebellions and Church Schism, 1649-71 The Great Northern War, 1700-1720 War with Ottomans and Pugachev's Rebellion, 1762-83 France's invasion of Russia, 1812 Crimean War and Emancipation Edict, 1853-61 Aftermath of the Crimean War and Emancipation Edict Bolshevik Revolution, 1905-1927 Aftermath of the Bolshevik Revolution Russia's Future The Ottoman Empire's Generational Timeline War with the Holy League, 1683-99 War with Russia, 1768-74 Crimean War, 1853-56, and Aftermath Young Turk Revolution to Destruction of Empire, 1908-1922 Zionism and the state of Israel The Future of the Mideast
Chapter 10 -- History of Asia China Analyzing China's history China's past The White Lotus Rebellion - 1796-1805 First Opium War, 1840-1842 The Taiping Rebellion, 1851-64 Aftermath of the Taiping Rebellion Why wasn't the Chinese Rebellion a crisis war? The Nationalist / Communist war, 1934-49 The Great Leap Forward, 1958-60 Tiananmen Square (1989) and Beyond Japan Commodore Perry and the Meiji Restoration, 1853-68 Japan's Imperialist Period -- 1894-1945 Vietnam Cambodia and Laos The Future of Southeast Asia
Chapter 11 -- Trend Forecasting Types of trends Cyclic Trends Growth Trends Combined Growth / Cyclic Trends Population Growth Exponential growth Thomas Roberts Malthus Complexity Theory: Why Communism and Socialism must fail Technology Growth Trends Artificial Light Sources Speed of combat aircraft Installed Technological Horsepower Growth of Computing Power Sociological changes related to technology Divorce Rate The leveling off of the divorce rate Out of Wedlock Births Forecasting Stock Trends Should stock prices grow exponentially? Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Stock Index The S&P Price Earnings Ratio Comparison to 1980s Japanese Nikkei Stock Market Index Sub-cycles in economic growth Reflating the Money Supply
Chapter 12 -- The Next Century The Singularity The need for philosophers and theologians
Chapter 13 -- America's Manifest Destiny and You What you should do -- as an individual What you should do -- as a community leader What you should do -- as a national politician
Appendix -- List of Crisis Periods
The End About Generational Theory Intuitive description of generational theory Use of GenerationalDynamics.com web site Theoretical core for Generational Dynamics Leon Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance About John J. Xenakis Acknowledgments
Footnotes / References