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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-May-2009
Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war

Web Log - May, 2009

Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war

"We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are for the lives lost and that we could not hold out for longer. We can no longer bear to see the innocent blood of our people being spilled."

With this dramatic statement from Tamil Tiger PR chief Selvarasa Pathmanathan, appearing on the TamilNet web site, the Sri Lanka civil war is coming to an end.

The Tamil Tigers, formally known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), have been fighting a civil war for a Tamil homeland ("Tamil Eelam") for 26 years. The war turned into a generational Crisis civil war early in 2008. (See "Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels.")

(Please download and read the new article (PDF file), "International business forecasting using System Dynamics with generational flows."

This paper brings several articles together in one place and updates many other materials from this web site, including the application of Systems Dynamics and Chaos Theory, and the history and basics of generational theory. It shows how Generational Dynamics can be used by commercial and government organizations to forecast developments in foreign countries.)

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The surrender, which brought cheers and celebrations in Colombo, the nation's capital, came after the Sri Lankan army announced that it had freed all of the 50,000 Tamil civilians that the UN estimated were trapped within the LTTE militants in the so-called "safe zone," which has been the scene of massive slaughter in recent weeks. Government forces had encircled the rebels and cut them off from the sea yesterday, taking control of the entire island’s coast for the first time, cutting off the militants' last escape route. The remaining militants are are holed up in a small patch of jungle, according to government sources.

As I wrote last week in, "Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Gaza are all following the same path," this surrender is nothing like the numerous failed "peace agreements" that have been signed over the years.

This is the climax of a generational Crisis war, and so this surrender is comparable to the surrender of the Germans and Japanese in 1945, ending World War II, or the surrender of the Confederacy, ending the American Civil War in 1865.

The next few days and weeks are very critical to the future of Sri Lanka as a nation. (See discussion of "Pólya's Urn" in "Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology.") What the government does in the next few days will affect every aspect of Sri Lankan society for decades to come.

Here are some things to watch for in the coming weeks:

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a very special time for Sri Lanka. With the end of this Crisis civil war, it's almost literally the birth of a new society and a new nation. In the next few days and weeks, we'll see what kind of society and nation is formed.

The following is the full statement of surrender appearing on the TamilNet web site:

Dignity and respect for our people is all we ask – Pathmanathan

[TamilNet, Sunday, 17 May 2009, 08:22 GMT]

“Despite our plea to the world to save the thousands of people in Vanni from the clutches of death, the silence of the international community has only encouraged the Sri Lankan military to execute the war to its bitter end. In the past 24 hours, over 3000 civilians lie dead on the streets while another 25,000 are critically injured with no medical attention. To save the lives of our people is the need of the hour. Mindful of this, we have already announced to the world our position to silence our guns to save our people," Selvarasa Pathmanathan, the head of LTTE’s International Diplomatic Relations has said in an urgent statement issued Sunday.

"This we have appealed to the countries of the world and called on them to halt the unrelenting massacre of our people by the Sri Lankan armed machinery. We are extremely saddened that this plea has fallen on deaf ears”, Mr Pathmanathan further said as he desperately called on the International Community to take immediate actions to save the Tamil people caught in the war zone and take necessary actions to protect the cadres and people giving themselves up to the military.

“This battle has reached its bitter end. Against all odds, we have held back the advancing Sinhalese forces without help or support, except for the unending support of our people. It is our people who are dying now from bombs, shells, illness and hunger. We cannot permit any more harm to befall them. We remain with one last choice – to remove the last weak excuse of the enemy for killing our people. We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are for the lives lost and that we could not hold out for longer. We can no longer bear to see the innocent blood of our people being spilled," Mr. Pathmanathan said.

The LTTE had for almost three decades fought the Sri Lankan military and defended its right to carry arms as a means of protecting the Tamil people living in the island. After unilaterally walking away from the Peace Process that began in 2002 with Norwegian facilitation, The Sri Lankan Government had opted for a military solution to end the crisis. Since the war intensified in 2007, several thousand Tamil civilians have died. The recent thrust by the military into the Northern strong holds of the Tamils have seen an escalation in the deaths and has resulted in untold misery with people succumbing to starvation and lack of medical supplies.

“We need to do everything within our means to stop this carnage. If this means silencing our arms and entering a peace process, that is something that we have already agreed to,” said Mr Pathamanathan. “This is the need of the hour. These are historically unprecedented times and require historically prudent decisions. If this means saving the lives of thousands of people, it needs to be done” he stated.

Mr Pathamanathan further stated that, “There is not a person who can doubt the LTTEs fearless and unending commitment to this cause with which we have been entrusted by our people. Know that the Tamils are a people deeply rooted in culture and history. No force can prevent the attainment of justice for our people. Our sons and daughters have taken up this call without question and without hesitation or fear of death. None have hesitated to make the supreme sacrifice for the cause of liberating their motherland. We have not forgotten that it is for our people that we fight. In the face of the current conditions, we will no longer permit this battle to be used as a justification by the forces of the Sinhala state to kill our people. We willingly stand up with courage and silence our guns. We have no other option other than to continue our plea to the international community to save our people”.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Sri Lanka crisis civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum.) (17-May-2009) Permanent Link
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