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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jan-08
Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels

Web Log - January, 2008

Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels

Sri Lanka has said it is formally withdrawing from a 2002 ceasefire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), informally known as the Tamil Tiger rebels.


Ethnic map of Sri Lanka, around 1975.
Ethnic map of Sri Lanka, around 1975.

Sri Lanka military commanders are promising to defeat the Tamils once and for all by the end of 2008. "We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning point once we are able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate in bunkers and forward defence lines," says the Chief of the army.

The civil war between the two Sri Lankan ethnic groups -- the market and government dominant Sinhalese vs marginalized Tamils.

The Sinhalese came to the island of Ceylon from northern India around 500 BC, and adopted the Buddhist religion around 300 BC, developing a great civilization. They speak the language Sinhala, and today they're about 70% of the population of Sri Lanka (the modern name for Ceylon).

The Tamils occupied the southern tip of India as early as 1000 BC, in what is now the Indian province of Tamil Nadu. They adopted the Hindu religion, and came to Ceylon in the 7th century AD. In the 14th century, they seized power in northern Ceylon and established a Tamil kingdom. They speak the Tamil language, and today they're about 10% of the population of Sri Lanka. (Muslims and Christians comprise the remainder of the population.)


Indian subcontinent, with the island of Sri Lanka off the southern tip of India.
Indian subcontinent, with the island of Sri Lanka off the southern tip of India.

The LTTE began as a separatist group in 1976, and began low-level terrorist attacks and battles with government forces in 1983, until a ceasefire was signed in 2002.

The peace treaty started falling apart in 2005, and violence took a big surge upward in summer 2006, while the world was watching the war in Lebanon, as I described at the time.

Foreign governments are expressing "concern" and disappointment that the government has decided to abandon the ceasefire agreement, which they claim was worthless anyway.

Related Articles

Sri Lanka
14-Mar-10 News - Sri Lanka Tamils reject homeland: A German college student validates Generational Dynamics... (14-Mar-2010)
27-Jan-10 News - Sri Lanka elections, and Turkey returns to its roots: Higher tensions between North and South Korea.... (27-Jan-2010)
Tamil Tigers renounce violence, to join Sri Lanka political process: New photos show "genocidal fury" at climax of civil war.... (25-May-2009)
Jubilant Sri Lanka celebrates, as President reaches out to the Tamils: But President Rajapaksa will need to follow words with actions.... (20-May-2009)
Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war: "We have decided to silence our guns. Our only regrets are... (17-May-2009)
Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Gaza are all following the same path.: But the end is in sight for Sri Lanka.... (11-May-2009)
Tens of thousands of Tamil civilians flee fighting, in last days of Sri Lanka war: A "human avalanche" of refugees threatens to overwhelm internment camps.... (22-Apr-2009)
Sri Lanka army ready for final assault on Tamil Tiger rebels: 1000 Tigers are trapped in a "safe zone" with 100,000 Tamil civilians.... (16-Apr-2009)
Cricketing world in shock after attack on Sri Lanka team in Pakistan: Lashkar-e-Taiba is suspected in the brutal attack in Lahore,... (4-Mar-2009)
International community asks Tamil Tigers to surrender in Sri Lanka civil war: In "nightmarish situation," hundreds of thousands of civilians are trapped in battle.... (3-Feb-2009)
Sri Lanka crisis civil war nears climax, as army captures Mullaittivu: An explosive battle among 300,000 civilians is feared.... (28-Jan-2009)
Gaza war heads toward cease-fire, while violence surges in Sri Lanka: Thousands of civilians' lives are at risk by army attacking terrorists responsible for suicide bombings.... (19-Jan-2009)
In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.: Both wars are getting increasingly meaner and nastier.... (6-Jan-2009)
Sri Lanka crisis war appears close to a genocidal climax.: There are two crisis wars in the world today: Darfur and Sri Lanka.... (27-Dec-2008)
Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels: Sri Lanka has said it is formally withdrawing from a 2002 ceasefire agreement... (4-Jan-08)
Tamil Tiger rebel aircraft bomb government airfields, escalating Sri Lanka civil war: Sri Lanka may soon join Darfur as another generational crisis war.... (26-Mar-07)
Bird flu spreading rapidly in Asia during New Year's celebrations: This is the most dangerous time of the year for possible pandemic mutation.... (17-Feb-07)
Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka: The war between Tamil Tiger rebels and Sri Lanka government continues to escalate,... (20-Oct-06)
While world watches Lebanon, Sri Lanka goes to war: Tamil Tiger rebels have engaged Sri Lanka government forces in heavy fighting... (3-Aug-06)
Massacre of civilians in Sri Lanka leading the way to a crisis war: From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the gratuitous murder of civilians in a war... (18-Jun-06)
Violence leading to Sri Lanka war is increasing: Tamil Tiger rebels are being blamed for a mine attack on a bus, killing 60 people including children.... (16-Jun-06)
Sri Lanka appears close to war: A naval attack by Tamil Tiger rebels and government retaliation by air may spiral into full-scale war.... (12-May-06)
Indian MP says that bird flu is a 'scam' to sell 'Tamil-flu': This sounds like a joke, but unfortunately it isn't.... (3-Dec-05)

Still, the announcement that the government army intends to defeat the Tamils by the end of 2008 is, by itself, a significant event. Up till now, many Tamils were resisting participation in the conflict, but this announcement will unite them.

We now have three "minor" incipient or actual crisis civil wars going on:

In fact, all three of these countries have followed and are following the same general pattern: It begins with low-level but gradually increasing violence for a couple of decades. When the violence reaches a certain point, everyone gets scared and both sides agree to stop fighting. That agreement lasts only a short time, before a final generational change turns it into a full-scale crisis war.

That's not just true in small countries, of course. It's happening in Pakistan, where the Pakistanis are increasingly joining forces with al-Qaeda.

And it's happening in the relationship between Japan and China, where the hostility became so bad in 2005 that both sides took steps to reduce the tension. Japan even went so far as to elect an older generation Prime Minister who recently took a trip to suck up to China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, all of these countries are following the same type of pattern along each country's generational timeline. Once these "peace" agreements are in place during generational Crisis eras, all it takes is a sufficient provocation by either country to stir up nationalistic fury in the younger generations of both countries, finally leading to full-scale war. (4-Jan-08) Permanent Link
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