Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
|  HOME  |  WEB LOG  |  COUNTRY WIKI  |  COMMENT  |  FORUM  |  DOWNLOADS  |  ABOUT  |

Presentation: A Marketable Methodology for Forecasting the Future by Analyzing Generational Changes

Introduction: The market for forecasting

Public sector: Foreign policymaking, military planning. Private sector: Multinational corporate management, international investment; polling (survey) models. Domains: hard predictions about worldwide events, politics, culture, economics, and international finance.

A brief trip around the world

How to understand today's trouble spots from a generational point of view: Iraq, Mideast, Haiti, Korea, Japan, China, Russia, Southeast Asia. Concepts of forecasting methodology.

A history of Western civilization

Cycles in American history; crisis wars versus mid-cycle wars; the Principle of Localization and merging timelines in West European history. The rise of Judaism, the lives of Jesus and Mohammed.

Orthodox Christianity versus Islam

The world focus on Jerusalem; the development of the coming "Clash of Civilizations"

Economic cycles

Global technology cycles (Kondratieff cycles); regional generational cycles; a new "Great Depression"?

Myths and reality about war

The nine civilizations. Fault lines by religion, ethnicity, skin color, language, geography. The Malthus effect and market-dominant minorities. The human need for sex and genocidal war. Forecasting riots, demonstrations, changes of attitude

The next century

The 2010s, the 2020s, the 2030s and beyond.

Summary and Future Directions

What is Generational Dynamics?   A methodology for understanding history -   Generational cycles - length of a human lifespan -   Principle of localization -   How wars begin -   Crisis wars versus non-crisis (mid-cycle) wars -   How smalls wars either extinguish or expand -   How one major war cycles to the next major war   A methodology for forecasting history -   Restriction: Can only make forecasts that depend on (generational) changes in attitudes and beliefs of large masses of people -   Politics, culture, tastes, economics, international finance

Target markets   Public sector -   Foreign policymaking - CIA, State Dept. -   Military planning   Private sector -   Multinational marketing and corporate management -   International investments -   Polling (survey) models

A brief trip around the world with particular attention to the world's exotic trouble spots Earth

Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars   Crisis Wars -   Rwandan War - 1994 -   Balkan War - early 1990s -   Cambodian killing fields - 1970s -   World War II -   70-90 year cycle   Mid-Cycle Wars -   World War I -   Vietnam War

Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars   Crisis War Characteristics -   Visceral cause - fury, fear that nation in danger -   High energy: preparation, pursuit, revenge -   Bottom-up - effort driven by the people -   Minor anti-war (pacifist) movement -   Targeting civilians - genocidal -   Outcome: Major political, structural, boundary changes   Mid-cycle War Characteristics -   Political cause -   Low energy: surprise, defense, revanche -   Top-down - Effort driven by the political leaders -   Dominant anti-war (pacifist) movement -   Political protection of civilians -   Outcome: Little real change; "Internal revolution"   Sex and Genocidal Crisis Wars -   Both are human needs -   Both are irrational -   Both occur regularly -   Both are essential to survival of the fittest -   Sex increases population, genocidal war selectively reduces population

Western and Eastern European Timelines Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations

Iraq Iraq   From 'austerity' to 'awakening' -   Only one generation past Iran/Iraq war, 1980s -   Civil war is almost impossible (99%)   Terrorist acts -   Actions of individuals and small groups -   Possible 'Tet offensive' near June 30 Periods in cycle - #years approximate

Iran Iran   Like Iraq - Only one generation past Iran/Iran war, 1980s   Pro-American riots and demonstrations since 1999 - overthrow mullahs?   Is Iran developing nuclear weapons?

Mideast   Palestinian Arabs vs Iraqi Muslims -   "If provoked they'll start a war, but if we're careful they won't" -   Different places in generational cycle   Recent history -   Replaying 1936-1949 -   Ariel Sharon versus Yasser Arafat   From 'unraveling' to 'crisis' -   Sharon's Disengagement - Wall -   Assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin -   Suicide bombings as moderation -   Regional war almost mathematically certain (99%) Periods in cycle - #years approximate

Haiti   Early history of Haiti French-oriented Haiti occupies about 1/3 of the island of Hispaniola, not far from Florida, and the Spanish-oriented Dominican Republic occupies 2/3. -   1492 - Christopher Columbus discovers Hispaniola -   1700s - Wealthy French colony - 500K slaves   Market-dominant minority vs majority -   French-speaking light-skinned mulattos, mixed blood -   Creole-speaking blacks (noirs) - 95% of pop   Massacres in twentieth century -   1915 - Crisis civil war -   1915-34 - American occupation -   1937 - Massacre by Dominican Republic's Trujilo -   1960s - Massacre by Dr. Francois Duvalier   Today's crisis period - 1992 to present -   Malthus effect - food becomes more expensive -   War postponed by money infusion -   Analyst predictions: Occupation for 20 years

Korea North and South Korea   Korean vs German Unification -   Both partitioned after World War II -   Different places in generational cycle -   Korean war (1950-53) armistice after stalemate   Impending reunification war -   Kim Jong-il: "Embargo means war" -   South Korean youth: Blaming America for partitioning

Japan Japan   1853-68 - Commodore Perry to Meiji Restoration -   Change in national character ('national lobotomy') -   1894-1910 - Imperialist wars with China and Russia -   Won Taiwan, Korea, southern Manchuria   1930-45 - World War II -   1930 - Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act -   1931 - Invade Manchuria -   US / League of Nations oil embargo -   Invade China -   1941 - Bombs Pearl Harbor -   Becomes pacifist nation

China China   History of rebellions -   1796 - White Lotus Rebellion -   1851-71 - Taiping Rebellion and others -   Population: 410 million to 350 million -   1934-49 - Mao's Long March, crisis civil war -   1949 - Chiang Kai-shek flees to Taiwan   The Miserable Generation ('Baby boomers') -   1950s -- All lawyers executed -   1958-60 Great Leap Forward - 10s M deaths -   1966-76 Cultural Revolution - indoctrination   Awakening to Unraveling -   1989 - Tiananmen Square massacre -   1992 - Birth of Falun Gong -   2000 - Over 100 million adherents of Falun Gong   Unraveling to Crisis -   Income disparity - rural peasants vs city workers -   Collapse of Mao's structure - migration to city -   Financial bubble -   Taiwan reunification crisis

Taiwan Taiwan   "Wild Lily" generation -   Wild Lily rebellion - 1990 -   Develop Taiwanese (vs Chinese) identity -   2000: Election of Chen Shui-bian from Democratic Progressive Party -   Moving away from China

Vietnam French Indochina: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos   French Indochina -   1882-93 Crisis war between France and China -   1954 French driven out by Ho Chi Minh   Vietnam War - 1965-75 -   Crisis war for Vietnam -   Mid-cycle war for America   Cambodia / Laos Civil War -   Crisis civil war -   Massive genocide and starvation (killing fields) Periods in cycle - #years approximate

The History of Western Civilization   American Crisis Wars   Identity groups, fault lines, crisis wars   Generation gaps versus fault lines   Judaism, lives of Jesus and Mohammed

America Today   Changes since 9/11 -   Visceral fear and anxiety - way of life in danger -   Fury at Islamic terrorists - revenge vs revanche -   Willingness to lock up Muslims with little or no probable cause (like Japanese during WW II) -   CIA and FBI - merging databases -   Increase patriotism -   Pre-emptive foreign policy   Europe after Madrid 3/11   Generational change around year 2000   Political shifts -   Gender gap and gender wars nearly extinguished -   Christian right / Jewish left: common goal of defending Israel -   Democrats need to focus on economy, not bash Bush on war

American History   Crisis Wars in American History -   1670-90 King Philip's War Crisis -   1772-90 Revolutionary War Crisis -   1857-1870 Civil War Crisis -   1929-1945 World War II Crisis   Mid-Cycle (Interim) Wars -   1846-48 Mexican War -   1898 Spanish-American War -   1917-18 World War I -   1950-53 Korean War -   1964-73 Vietnam War -   1991 Persian Gulf War

American History (Cont.)   World War II was a crisis war -   No hesitation after Pearl Harbor -   Antiwar (pacifist) movement fizzled -   Loss of individual rights - confinement -   No protection for civilians -   Visceral fear and fury -   Desire for revenge (vs. revanche)   World War I was a mid-cycle war -   Christmas Truce (England/Germany, 1914) -   American neutrality till 1917 - despite terrorism -   Strong anti-war (pacifist) movement in America -   Unnecessary German capitulation -   Crisis war for Russia and Ottoman Empire   Vietnam War was a mid-cycle war -   Generation gap - G.I. generation v Baby Boomers -   Strong anti-war (pacifist) movement in America -   Protection of civilians -   Crisis war for Vietnamese

Civilizations, Identity Groups, Fault Lines   Major Civilizations of the World Nine major civilizations today -   Western, Latin American, African, Islamic, Sinic (Chinese), Hindu, Orthodox, Buddhist, and Japanese   Identity groups -   Bosnian war: Serbs vs Bosnians vs Croats -   Orthodox Christians vs Muslims vs Western Christians   Fault lines -   France vs Germany -   Western vs Orthodox Christianity -   Islam vs Orthodox Christianity

Generation Gaps vs Fault Lines Fault lines and generation gaps

From Revolutionary War to Civil War   Cause of war vs Timing of war America c 1810      America c 1830 America c 1850      America c 1861

Western and Eastern European Timelines Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations

History of Judaism   A Diaspora religion -   1200BC Exodus: Hebrews under Moses cross Red Sea out of Egyptian slavery and survive in the desert -   500BC Jews exiled into Babylon, return to Jerusalem -   Jews could live anywhere, without a homeland, and maintain a Jewish identity -   ..................... To be completed .......

Lives of Jesus and Mohammed   Life of Jesus -   4 BC - Born at end of crisis period -   Became popular during awakening period -   Did not flee when threatened with death because of Isaiah -   66AD - Destruction of Jerusalem - spread of Christianity   Life of Mohammed -   570 AD - Born at beginning of crisis war - orphaned -   Became popular during awakening period -   Fled from Mecca to Medina when threatened with death -   630 Conquered Mecca ten years later, died several years later -   665 - Crisis civil war among followers - spread of Islam   Awakening periods -   The time when great ideas are born -   Great ideas extinguish or spread during next crisis war -   Name comes from "The Great Awakening" - period of 1730-40s - when multiple religions spread on American east coast

Islam versus Orthodox Christianity   Eastern Europe is NOT like Western Europe   Orthodox Christianity is NOT like Western Christianity

Spread of Humans Spread of humans from North Africa around the world

Alexander the Great's Empire Alexander the Great's empire at his death in 323 BC   The most remarkable warrior in world history   Spread Greek culture and language through the entire region

Roman Empire Roman Empire at its peak, 120AD   In 285, administratively split into easter and western region   Western Roman Empire collapsed in 476

Byzantine Empire Byzantine Empire at its peak, 600AD   Byzantine Empire the last remnant of Roman Empire -   Roman Empire in the West had been destroyed -   Centered in city of Byzantium, later called Constantinople -   Pope and Catholicism remained in the West -   Catholic religion became stateless -   Major doctrinal differences developed -   Orthodox churches still exist in Africa today

Spread of Islam after Mohammed Byzantine and Islamic Empires, 750   Islam spread like wildfire   Doctrinal issues: Quran vs Sunna -   Sunna are habitual behaviors, published long after death -   Split in Sunnism vs Shi'ism

Slavs and Seljuk Turks Arrival of Seljuk Turks and spread of Orthodox Christianity to Slavs   In 1000, both Islam and Orthodox Christianity were threatened with extinction   Seljuk Turks from Central Asia adopted Islam -   988 - Vladimar adopted Orthodox Christianity for Slavs   Catholics sack Constantinople in 1204   Slavs moved east and formed Russian Empire

Ottoman Empire and Fall of Constantinople Eastern Europe in 1600 AD   Rise of Ottoman Empire -   1300 - Turkish Muslim tribal chief Osman started to expand -   1453 - Fall of Constantinople - renamed Istanbul   Russia assumes a new role -   Moscow took on the mantle of the true heir to the Roman Empire -   Russian leader is Tsar (or Czar) named after Caesar -   Tsar is also head of the true ("Orthodox") Christian Church -   Tsar is also protector of Jerusalem -   Orthodox Christianity is not a stateless religion   Russia vs Ottoman Crisis Wars -   Russian war with Ottomans, 1672-83 -   Crimean War, 1850s -   World War I, 1910s

Impact of World War I   Triggered by crisis war in the Balkans in 1910s -   Germany pulled into war because of treaty with Austria -   Balkans war replayed in the 1990s   Bolshevik Revolution, 1917 -   Russia abandons role in World War I -   Communist state -- repudiation of Tsarist government -   Godless state - repudiation of Russian Orthodox Church -   Repudiation of role as protector of Jerusalem -   Stalin/Trotsky civil war - tens of millions murdered   Collapse of Ottoman Empire -   Young Turks - Rise of Turkish identity (vs Ottoman identity) -   Armenian genocide -   Abolition of the Sunni Muslim Caliphate -   Rise of Arab identity   Rise of Zionism -   1917 - Balfour declaration calls for state of Israel -   1930s - Nazi persecution - Jewish migration to Palestine -   1936 - Jewish-Arab conflict begins -   1948 - Partitioning of Palestine - state of Israel - full scale regional crisis war

Eastern Europe / Western Asia today Eastern Europe / Western Asia   Fault line conflict regions -   Balkans -   Crimea -   Caucasus (Chechnya) -   Uzbekistan (to right)

Western and Eastern European Timelines Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations

Economic Cycles   Global technology cycles - Kondratieff cycles   Generational cycles and bubbles   A new "Great Depression"

The 1930s Great Depression Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 1940   Characteristics of 1930s Great Depression -   Big credit bubble in 1920s - borrowed money to bid up stock prices -   Nobody knew what was going on until a month into stock market crash -   1920s stock market bubble CAUSED the 1930s Great Depression -   Establishment of SEC and stock market regulations specifically designed to prevent another credit bubble   1929 collapse -   Stock market became increasingly volatile -   Below a certain level hit a 'tipping point' -   People forced to sell to meet margin credit requirements   Previous big credit bubbles -   Panic of 1857 (prior to Civil War) -   British banking failure in 1772

The 1990s Credit Bubble Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 2002   New 1990s credit bubble (using stock options)   Complete failure of SEC and stock market regs   Trend line (exponential) -   Current (early 2003) value: Above 10000 -   Trend value in 2010: 5800 -   Predicts fall to around 4000 in next few years

Credit bubbles - logarithmic scale Dow Jones Industrial Average - 1896 to 2002   Graph now shows both credit bubbles

S&P 500 Index, adjusted for inflation S&P 500 Price Index - 1870 to 2002   For those who consider the DJIA to be too artificial   Trend line (exponential) -   Current (early 2003) value: Above 1100 -   Trend value in 2010: 589 -   Predicts fall to around 400 in next few years

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio S&P 500 Price/Earnings Index - 1881 to 2002   P/E Ratio measures price of stock vs historical earnings -   Historical average around 13 -   Above 18: Stocks are expensive -   Below 10: Stocks are inexpensive -   Historically goes below 10 after exceeding 20 -   Predicts stock market fall of 50% or more

Generational Economic Cycles   Credit bubbles every 70-90 years (generational cycle) during 'unraveling' period -   Credit bubble / depression creates a risk-aversive generation -   New bubble when previous risk-aversive generation retires -   Financial crisis and war crisis reinforce each other   "Crusty Old Bureaucracy" theory -   Informal (not rigorous) explanation -   Every organization becomes bureaucratic in time - bankruptcy -   Same rules applies to entire nation in 70-90 year cycles

Greenspan and the Federal Reserve   Greenspan in 1997 -   Had referred to "irrational exuberance" -   Knew that a stock market bubble was forming -   Decided to deal with consequences rather than end bubble   Federal Reserve after 2000 -   Prevent 1929 forced selling 'tipping point' -   Reduced interest rates (overnight funds rate) to 1%   Consequences of low interest rate -   Housing bubble -   High auto sales -   Increased personal borrowing during unemployment -   Extension of stock market bubble   Medium range risks -   Collapse of Chinese credit bubble -   Oil disruption through Mideast war -   Loss of confidence after terrorist attack -   Cyclic downturn spiraling down

Technology (Kondratieff) versus Generational Cycles Technology cycles versus generational bubbles   Identifying technology cycles -   Smooth the S&P index, ignoring bubbles -   Cycle length 40-50 years -   Technology (Kondratieff) cycles have been identified for hundreds of years   Technology versus Generational cycles -   Technology cycles are global, generational cycles are local -   Entirely independent - can enhance or cancel each other

Causes of War   Goes beyond timing of wars   This work is in progress, subject to change

Visceral causes of crisis wars   Recognizing the visceral causes -   Mid-cycle wars are political - top-down - reasoning -   Crisis wars are visceral, instinctive, unreasoning, emotional -   Visceral motivations occur once every 70-90 year cycle   Signs of visceral hatred -   Genocide, mass murder, mass rape, rape with bottles -   Desire for vengeance -   Fear that nation or way of life is in danger

Sources of visceral fears   Isolating causes of visceral fears -   Example: Americans after 9/11 vs London 1943 -   Example: Causes of American Civil War -   Visceral fears arise only in generational crisis periods   Threats lead to visceral fears -   Threat of invasion -   Threat of terrorism -   Threat of starvation -   Threat of disease (e.g., black plague) -   Threat of internal insurrection -   Threat of government violence -   Perception of threat may be irrational (crisis periods) -   Applies to large masses of people during crisis periods

Results of visceral fears - war   Provoking visceral fears -   Applies to large masses of people during crisis periods -   Surprise terrorist attack -   Assassination -   Outbreak of disease -   Sudden increase in price of food or rent or taxes -   Sudden loss of job or income -   Tariff law or oil embargo causing unemployment -   Note: That's why even non-violent acts can be thought of as acts of war   Visceral fear -> Visceral hatred -> War -   'Enemy' executes hostile surprise - violent or non-violent -   Feel visceral fear - may be irrational -   Determine threat causing visceral fear - may be irrational -   Assign cause or fault to threat as 'enemy' - may be irrational -   Population develops feelings of fear and fury -   Triggers "them or us" feelings -   Leads to war

Market-Dominant Minority Economies   Yale Professor Amy Chua in World on Fire   Example: 1994 Rwanda genocide -   Tutsis (14% of population) - market-dominant minority -   Hutu (85% of population) -   In 1994, Hutus hacked to death 900K Tutsis in 3 months   Other examples -   Chinese are MDM in many countries throughout Southeast Asia -   Whites are MDM in South Africa -   Lebanese are MDM in West Africa -   Ibo are MDM in Nigeria -   Jews are MDM in post-Communist Russia

Thomas Roberts Malthus   Essay on Population, published in 1798 -   Population grows geometrically -   Food supply grows linearly -   Therefore population will always outstrip food supply   Corrected rates -   Population grows exponentially -   Food supply grows exponentially, at a slower rate than population -   Therefore population will always outstrip food supply -   This applies both regionally and globally   My own estimates -   Food supply grows at .96% per year, based on USDA wheat yields since 1860 -   Population grows by 1.29% per year, based on UN estimates -   Population grows by 3-5% in some countries, based on CIA Fact Book

The Malthus Effect   Nature's methods for reducing population -   Famine, disease, war -   20-40 wars on any day in any year -   Major method is war, not famine   The Malthus Effect - my phrase for how food scarcity leads to crisis war -   As time goes on, population grows faster than food supply -   As time goes on, food becomes relatively scarcer -   As time goes on, price of food goes up -   Bowl of rice costs 1 hour labor -> 2 hours -> 3 hours -   Poverty and starvation lead to humiliation and hatred   Malthus Effect during non-crisis periods -   Poverty and starvation lead to looting and low-level violence -   Low-level violence handled by standard police methods -   Mid-cycle problems handled with restraint: compromise and containment   Malthus Effect during crisis periods -   Looting and low-level violence provoke visceral fears -   Both sides overreact -   Looting leads to brinkmanship and increasing demands -   Reactions involve increased violence and higher visibility -   Ping-pong hostile surprises lead to war

The Next Century The Next Century

Exponential Growth of Supercomputer Power Exponential Growth of Supercomputer Power Singularity

Summary and Future Directions The Future   Additional theoretical development   Development of predictive "World Model"