|Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's|
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Generational Dynamics is based on a simple idea: That societies and nations make mistakes and then learn lessons from those mistakes. But generations grow older, retire and die, and are replaced by new generations who are too young to remember those mistakes and those lessons. When that happens, the mistakes are repeated.
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This is important today, because one of those mistakes is to have a major war. There are certain wars called "Crisis Wars" that are so violent that they actually put the nation's survival, or at least the nation's way of life, in danger. America's last crisis war was World War II, and the previous one was the Civil War. (World War I was never a crisis war for America.)
Many crisis wars are are world wars. A diagram showing the major crisis wars for the last few centuries is at the bottom of this page.
Generational Dynamics is very important at this time in America's history because we've entered a new "crisis period." Ten years ago, all the nation's senior government, business and educational leaders and managers were from the generation that grew up during World War II, and experienced the trauma of seeing homelessness, starvation and death all around them, while they lived in fear of German and Japanese bombers. That risk-aversive generation dealt with problems using compromise and containment.
Today, those risk-aversive leaders are gone, retired or dead. Today's leaders are from the "Baby Boomer generation," born after World War II with no personal memory of that war. The people in this generation are not risk-aversive. The people in this generation are more likely to be risk-seeking, arrogant, hubristic, narcissistic, and self-assured. That's why America's attitudes have changed so much in the last ten years.
Once you understand Generational Dynamics, then you'll understand a very great deal about how the world works, and about America's future for the next thirty years.
Since 2002, we've been using Generational Analysis to make specific, hard predictions about worldwide events, politics, culture, technology, economics and international finance, and with much better accuracy than private analyst firms. If you're paying big money for high-priced newsletters from private analyst firms, and all you're getting is vague "that might be a problem" forecasts, then check this website regularly to get really useful, accurate forecasts -- FOR FREE.
We believe that this site is providing a public service by providing information about America's future which is not available anywhere else, and cannot be learned by any methodology other than Generational Dynamics.
John J. Xenakis is an MIT grad, a journalist, writer, technologist, researcher and analyst who became interested in study and analysis of world history and how generational changes over the centuries have led nations into everything from humiliation to greatness. The result is Generational Dynamics, a technique for analyzing history and for understanding how nations change their beliefs and attitudes as generations change.
Comments, questions and criticisms are welcome.