Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
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A survey of 3300 people in six Arab countries (Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan) reveals that Arab attitudes toward America have become substantially and dramatically more hostile in the last two years, since the last poll was conducted.
The poll was conducted by Zogby International, and commissioned by the Arab-American Institute. (Full report PDF)
Two years ago, Arab attitudes towards America were about 20% favorable and 80% unfavorable.
That's pretty bad, but today they're even worse: roughly 10% favorable and 90% unfavorable.
Two years ago, the major factors fueling Arab anger toward America were America's support for Israel and lack of support of Palestinians.
Today, those factors are supplemented by a third factor: America's presence in Iraq.
From a Generational Dynamics point of view, these results indicate a "hardening of attitudes" that's typical during a generational crisis period. For example, prior to World War II, the hatred that Americans and Japanese felt toward each other increased during the 1930s, finally exploding into war in the 1940s. The same sort of thing is happening today.
In the analyses we've posted on the web during the last two years, we've tried to emphasize that this kind of polarization follows an inevitable trend line, and is not the result of one specific event or policy.
Thus, Arab anger toward America and the west has increased as a result of the Iraq war, but it's also increased because of the physical barrier Israel is building to separate Israel from Gaza and the West Bank, and it's even increased by lesser things, such as France's policy, announced last year, of banning head scarves on Muslim girls in schools. During a generational crisis period, even small indignities can be treated as acts of war.
Similarly, Americans' attitudes are hardening towards Muslims. The 9/11 attacks, of course, were a major factor. But so were other terrorist attacks around the world. And the grizzly beheadings of American hostages in Iraq have fueled further fury at extremist Muslims.
It's not just the attitudes of Americans and Muslims that have become more polarized toward each other. The March 11 subway bombings in Madrid have hardened attitudes around Europe, some pro-American and some anti-American. The recent capitulation of the Philipines to Islamist radicals threatening to behead a Filipino citizen in Iraq have infuriated Australia and South Korea, who claim that the Filipino move is encouraging terrorism.
The increased hardening of attitudes also occurs within Muslim populations, as we're seeing today in the Palestine region. Militant Arab factions are fighting with one another in the Gaza strip, and are threatening wider violence. Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestinians, is possibly the only person who can keep the violence from spiraling out of control, but he too is aging, and will soon be replaced by younger leaders with little fear of war.
America's last crisis war was World War II. Up through the 1990s, America's leaders in government and business were all people who had lived through the horrors of WW II, had personal memories of it, and were willing to make compromises to prevent a recurrence.
Today, America's leaders are all from the "Baby Boomer" generation of people born after WW II and have no personal memory of it, and so have little or no fear of a recurrence of world war. That's exactly the generational change that triggers a generational crisis period.
The same thing is happening around the world, as countries around the world are being led by people who were born after WW II and have no personal memory of it. Each day, more and more of the world enters a crisis period, and more and more people are less fearful of brinkmanship that might lead to war.
Another factor at play is the increase in poverty and starvation around the world. This is caused by the never-ending "Malthus effect," where world population grows faster than the food supply, causes food prices to increase, and pushing more and more people into poverty. There is only one way to solve this problem - a major war that thins the population. The current worldwide situation is made even worse by the fast-spreading HIV/AIDS pandemic sweeping Africa and Asia.
All of these trends are moving the world towards the fabled "clash of civilizations" we've been hearing so much about. Of all the changes that I've described, probably the most dramatic is the precipitous fall of worldwide Arabs' attitudes toward America, from an incredibly low 20% favorable two years ago to an even more incredibly low 10% favorable now.