Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
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There's a grim fascination today to watching the Mideast head towards all out war, as the intensity of the ping pong terrorism grows.
A major Mideast war is now almost certain. Last weekend, Israel's "ping" was to attack Syria, following a Palestinian "pong" suicide bomber attack that killed 19 people in Haifa.
The Palestinian militia groups -- Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad -- have made it clear, at least among themselves, that ending the "Israeli occupation" means ending Israel altogether -- and they believe that they're scoring impressive victories in that war, that they're winning that war and that in time they'll achieve total victory.
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This belief was made clear by members of the Hezbollah militia group, including its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, interviewed by Washington Post reporter David Ignatius.
Hezbollah views the suicide bombings as a route to the complete elimination of the state of Israel. Indeed, they believe that they've already scored a significant victory over Israel, by using suicide attacks to force Israel to withdraw its forces unilaterally from southern Lebanon in May 2000.
Eventually the suicide bombings will force the entire Israeli population to leave the region, according to Hezbollah claims gleaned by Ignatius. "The Zionists do not dare to move in the streets and he who ventures out is not sure he will come back alive," according to Hezbollah literature.
And Hezbollah leader Nasrallah told Ignatius that the pressure will not let up. "I can't imagine a situation, based on the nature of the Israeli project and the nature of the Israeli leaders, where the Palestinians would agree to lay down arms," he said.
In other words, the view of the Palestinian militia is that they've scored significant victories, and they're going to win a total victory.
Let's analyze the Israeli side in a different way.
Israel rightly distinguishes itself from the Palestinia militia by saying that they never target civilians. Their military targets have been only military -- the terrorist training camp in Syria, and members of the Hamas command structure.
But history shows us that even non-violent terrorist acts can fuel the fury that leads to major wars. For example, non-violent British taxes in the 1760s infuriated the American colonists. This led the colonists to the non-violent Boston Tea Party, which destroyed a lot of expensive tea. The furious English Parliament passed a series of non-violent "Coercive Acts" to dismantle the colonial Massachusetts government and close the port of Boston. This was tantamount to a declaration of war.
This kind of ping-ponging of "terrorist" acts is standard in the foreplay of any large war. Here's another example, from the lead-up to World War II: When the stock market crashed in 1929 and millions of Americans lost their jobs, the public blamed imported goods. In 1930, Congress passed the non-violent Smoot-Hawley tariff act, which placed high tariffs on all imported goods. This was an economic measure, but Japan took it as almost an act of war: Japan's biggest export was silk, and after Smoot-Hawley, exports dropped to almost zero, causing enormous financial disruption to Japan. A year later, Japan invaded Manchuria. America responded by cooperating with the League of Nations to place a non-violent oil embargo on Japan -- causing further enormous hardship. Japan responded by leaving the League of Nations and attacking northern China. Japan was furious at America, and that fueled Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.
These historical examples of ping-pong terrorism, including "non-violent" terrorism, illustrates what's happening today in the Mideast. Israel's policy has been to avoid bloodshed, or at least bloodshed of civilians, but its acts have been perceived as terrorist acts by many Palestinians. Non-violent acts that are seen as terrorist acts by the Palestinians include building Jewish settlements on the West Bank, preventing Palestinians from going to their jobs in Israel, and, most recently, building the massive wall that's supposed to protect Israel from the suicide bombers.
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Having said all that, Israel's attack on Syria is a major "ping" in the ping-pong terrorism. It's fairly certain that we'll see some new major "pong" on the Palestinian side before long.
Reports that Yasser Arafat is seriously ill raise additional concerns. If Arafat dies, then whoever takes his place as the leader of the Palestinians will certainly be someone in a much younger generation, and almost certainly will be Hezbollah leader Nasrallah or someone like him. This can only accelerate the intensity of the ping-pong terrorism.
Generational Dynamics predicts that a major regional war cannot be avoided in the next few years. The exact timing is not yet known, but the intensity of the ping-pong terrorism provides a measure of how close that inevitable war is.