Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Generational crisis for Arafat as thousands take to streets in revolt in Gaza

Attempts by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to shake up the security forces in the Gaza region of Palestine led to a series of crises in the last week, including gunfights, kidnapping, ministerial resignations, and now open revolts and riots of thousands of Palestinians. Arafat's own headquarters offices were burned down, and continual factional fighting is leading to casualties among Palestinians.

Arafat has been in constant meetings with his security officers to try to bring the situation under control. Analysts are expressing concern that the situation will deteriorate further.

This is a clear generational clash. Yasser Arafat, born 1929, is the leader of what Palestinian political scientist and pollster Khalil Shikaki calls the Palestinian "old guard." Shikaki has found a clear generational split among the Palestinians, with the "young guard" more willing to use violence to achieve Palestinian goals. The open revolts and riots are being led by the the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades militant group, led by the "young guard."

As usual, the journalists, pundits, and high-priced analysts don't understand what's going on. Those that mention the generational split at all call the young guard "reform minded" and "progressive."

Actually, Generational Dynamics predicts that it's exactly this generation of young guards that will lead the Palestinians into a major regional war that will become increasingly violent as time goes on, using weapons as mass destruction as the war gathers strength.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Palestine region is in a generational crisis period. The last crisis war was the extremely violent war between Arabs and Jews in 1948-49, following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Non-crisis wars that occurred in 1967 and 1972 did not resolve anything but only heightened tensions, and trained this "young guard" to understand that Palestinian objectives will not be reached as long as the "old guard" is still in charge.

Palestine appears to have entered a new generational crisis period in September, 2000, with the beginning of the campaign of suicide bombers, and the expulsion of Israel from southern Lebanon. Since then, additional shocks and surprises have raised the level of tension. These shocks include additional suicide attacks and missile attacks on Jewish homes on the one side, and killing of Hamas leaders and the building of the partition on the other side.

The escalating violence will be led by the "young guard," those "reform-minded progressives" as the silly pundits call them.

For those readers who are trying to assess the unfolding of events in Israel over the next few months or the next few years, it's important to watch for signs that the revolts and demonstrations are spiraling out of control. This may happen next week, next year, or in two or three years thereafter. It's unlikely to take longer than that, given the increasing level of violence since 2000. The violence "trend line" has only been going up since then, and there's no sign that it will reverse.

In trying to assess the unfolding of events in the next few days and weeks, here are some things to watch for:

• Any increase of violence that appears to be going out of control.
• Spread of violence to West Bank.
• Involvement of outside forces, such as Israelis or Egyptians.
• Unexpected shocks and surprises to any potential belligerents that raise the tension level.

If the level of violence subsides again, then the tensions will not go away, and the next period of protest in the months ahead may light the fuse. Generational Dynamics guarantees that the fuse will be lit.

Very briefly, the generational analysis of the region is as follows:

Population in Gaza has been increasing at close to 4% per year for a number of years, leading to increased crowding and poverty. Although aid has been pouring into the region, it can't keep up with the inexorable increase in population. As time passes, new generations replace old ones, and a new crisis war breaks out at roughly the time that the generation that grew up during the last crisis war disappears (retires or dies).

For several years, older Palestinian leaders have been dying or retiring, until today where Arafat is the only major leader left with a personal memory of the 1940s crisis war. In my book, I estimated that the new crisis war would break out within a year or two after the death or retirement of Arafat, because he would be replaced with younger radicals who would not hesitate to commit brinkmanship with Israel that might risk war.

Israel itself is in a similiar situation, led by Ariel Sharon (born 1928). After death or retirement he too would be replaced with younger radicals who don't fear war. It's ironic that Arafat and Sharon, who hate each other, have been cooperating with one another (consciously or unconsciously) to prevent a new regional crisis war.

If you want to look into the future, then look at the following map, which is worth at least a thousand words:

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Notice the teeny, tiny red dot (Israel) in the vast sea of green (Muslim countries). The younger generations in these Muslim countries have been taught that there can be no peace until the infidels are driven out, and that tiny red spot turns to green. And there won't be.