	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Kerry establishes an electoral lead going into the Democratic convention.

He's tuned his message to what I suggested last year. Do you suppose he read my web site? (25-Jul-2004)

Summary John Kerry and the Democratic Party have substantially improved their message in the last few months, by toning down the harsh anti-Bush rhetoric and communicating a "he's OK but I'm much better" message on Iraq and the economy. This has paid rewards in terms of electoral gains against Bush, but Kerry still has to make the American public, anxious about increasingly warlike worldwide events, feel secure with him.

Last year, when Howard Dean was the leading Democratic candidate, I was very critical of the Democrats' strident, vitriolic anti-Bush rhetoric. This is not what Americans want to hear. I said that the Democratic message had to be, "Bush was a good, decent military leader, but I can do better."

Kerry's message is very carefully honed along these lines: The Iraq war was justified but Bush should have waited for more weapons inspections; the prosecution of the war was OK, but Kerry would have more international support.

On the economy, Kerry's message had to be that the economy is worse than Bush says it is, and Kerry could make it better. Kerry has done that as well.

In fact, Kerry has given orders to all the speakers at the convention: No angry anti-Bush rhetoric. Undecided voters don't like it.

According to polls, Kerry currently leads Bush by a small margin in the projected popular vote, and by a fairly large 100 vote advantage in the Electoral College.

The danger facing Kerry is that he won't handle the national security issue in a way that will make Americans today feel safe. Americans hear the distant drumbeats of war, and they hear the drumbeats coming closer to home. They've very concerned and anxious about what's happening in the world. If the people are unsure about Kerry, they'll vote for Bush because at least they know him.

Kerry is still not very well known to most voters, and he'll be able to get a bounce (increase his lead) this week only if he can tell the voters who he is, and at the same time maintain his messages on Iraq and the economy.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it makes no difference at all which of Bush and Kerry win the election. The trend lines toward the worldwide "clash of civilizations" have been set for decades, and there is nothing now that any American President can do to make the situation better or worse beyond short-term intrigues.