Dynamics
|
|
Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
| HOME WEB LOG COUNTRY STUDIES COMMENT FORUM ABOUT | |
The following is a list of the "disasters" that have befallen America during generational crisis periods:
|
Question: What else do these events all have in common?
Answer: They all occurred in the year after a Presidential election.
Is this just a coincidence, or are there good reasons for it? Because if there are reasons, then it could mean that "something big" is going to happen in 2005.
In fact, there is a plausible explanation. Many people put plans on hold prior to a Presidential election, for several reasons. Foreign leaders, for example, might not want to take some action that would make it appear that they're trying to influence the election, one way or another. Terrorists might wait until after the election or even until the inauguration to see if "anything changes."
So the argument that "something big" is going to happen next year is based on the premise that many, many people have been putting things off until after the election or the inauguration, for one reason or another, and that new confrontations will occur next year that will lead to, well, something big.
In this article, we're going to explore this possibility. However, keep in mind that this is not part of the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodolody, and so it should be considered somewhat speculative at this time.
However, I find the list of crisis events shown above to be quite remarkable. I would be interested in hearing from any reader who thinks that I "cheated" on this list -- left out some important event just to make the list come out the way I want it. I'm not aware of any other crisis period event that belongs in that list.
You'll notice that I didn't specify any event for 1933. If I had to pick a major crisis-era event in the year 1933, the event I would pick is Japan's withdrawal from the League of Nations. Americans and Japanese already distrusted each other. This was an early sign that Japan was intending war, and Americans knew it. But I can't really claim that withdrawing from the League of Nations is an event comparable to 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, so that's why I didn't specify any event for 1933.
An expectation with a deadline is a dangerous thing. If you expect something to happen before March 1, and it doesn't happen, then what do you do on March 2? The result is "cognitive dissonance," the unpleasant experience of trying to deal with the dissonance of being wrong. If it's a small matter, you may simply admit you made a mistake. But if it's a big thing, and if you're desperate, then you may resort to an extreme of violence, murder or suicide.
I was introduced to cognitive dissonance forty years ago in a book When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study, by Leon Festinger, the developer of the cognitive dissonance theory. This book gives an inside story of a cult that predicts the end of the world on a certain date. What happens when the date comes and the world doesn't end? Remarkably, the cult members do not give up their belief; instead, their secret cult turns into a public cult, and the cult members begin proselytizing, claiming that "god has decided to give the world one more chance."
However, there have been big national news stories of other cult experiences that ended much more violently. The most famous are the Heaven's Gate suicide cult of 1997, and the Jonestown massacre of 1978.
A more complex example appears in the play West Side Story. The critical scene comes at the end of Act I, when the entire cast sings the song "Tonight." Anita is going to get her kicks with Bernado tonight. Tonight, Bernado will lead the Sharks, a Puerto Rican street gang in New York, to victory over the Jets, an American street gang. Riff will lead the Jets to victory over the Sharks, tonight. The American Tony will reason with everyone and convince them not to fight, and after that he and the Puerto Rican Maria will declare their everlasting love for each other, as they seek "a time and place for us" -- tonight. They all sing of their plans and expectations for "tonight."
So everyone's hopes and expectations are high. When things go wrong, Bernardo kills Riff, and Tony kills Bernardo, and in the play's climax, Maria's Puerto Rican boyfriend kills Tony. The brilliance of tragedy as an art form, which was invented by the Greeks, is that the once you know everyone's nature and expectations, then the tragic ending is foreordained and can't be avoided.
So there may be nothing more deadly in human nature than the combination of clashing expectations with a deadline.
Having laid the groundwork, I can now turn to this question: Are there in fact plans that are being saved until after the election and expectations for what will happen after the inauguration?
This is very easy. There huge numbers of things of such things, and we've already documented a number of them on this web site. Let's enumerate some of them:
Many people believe that things will change even if Bush is reelected, simply because the people in the administration will change. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected to leave, and so is Attorney General John Ashcroft. Changes like this give people hope that changes will come, no matter who wins in November.
On the other hand, North Korea leader Kim Jong-il has said that Bush is "an imbecile and a tyrant who puts Hitler in the shade," and has been playing Kerry's speeches on state radio. Kim has been stalling the nuclear proliferation talks for months, appearently hoping that Kerry would pursue a softer line against Korea. Even if Bush wins, Kim evidently believes that a replacement for Colin Powell will be easier to deal with.
This list could go on and on. And these are just major things that have been reported in news stories.
I believe that there are probably millions of decisions and expectations like these that hinge on the election. Most of them are small and relatively meaningless, and others are more significant.
The point is that these decisions and expectations are going to create cognitive dissonance for a lot of people. If Bush wins the election, then those who were hoping for better things under Kerry will be angry after the election; if Kerry wins, then those who were hoping that Kerry will actually do something that will change things for the better will become increasingly angry after the inauguration when things still don't change.
There'll be lots of surprises. Bad financial news that was postponed until after the election will start to come out. Political confrontations and terrorist actions that were postponed until we could see how things change will take place. These surprises could build to "something big" in 2005.
To answer this question we first have to point out that this is no ordinary year. We're in a generational crisis period, not only in America, but around the world in all the countries that fought in World War II as a crisis war. So the argument we're making here would not have applied, for example, in the 1990s.
Indeed, a car bomb blew up New York's World Trade Center in 1993, but today it's barely remembered. It certainly didn't have even a tiny fraction of the long-term impact of a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 attack. So when we talk about "something big" in 2005, we're talking about a country in a generational crisis period, to whom "something big" has a unique meaning.
Generational Dynamics predicts certain things with near 100% certainty - that there'll be a major Arab-Israeli war, for example, and that in fact there'll be a major "clash of civilizations" world war. But Generational Dynamics predicts only the actions and behaviors of large masses of people, and even then only in fairly large time window.
So forecasting events that might happen in 2005 has to be considered very speculative. Nonetheless, given the sets of expectations that we discussed above, it would seem worthwhile.
So what might "something big" be?
Ever since the March 21 subway bombing in Madrid changed Spain's elections overnight, it's been rumored that al-Qaeda is planning a similar attack just before the American election. That's still possible, of course, and there are a lot of people nervous about it. But al-Qaeda might also be thinking, "They're expecting something before the election, so let's really surprise them with something after the election." At any rate, it's widely believed that al-Qaeda is planning something big to follow 9/11, and it may happen in 2005.
With stocks overpriced by a factor of two (as measured by standard price/earnings ratios), it's only a matter of time before a major stock crash occurs. I've been saying since 2002 that there will be such a crash by the 2006-2007 time frame, but it could happen next year.
The most dangerous region in the world is the Caucasus, especially after the Beslan massacre. The Chechen war has been goin on for ten years, the North Ossetians are looking for revenge for Beslan, and the South Ossetians are looking to secede from Georgia, by force if necessary. This region could "spiral out of control" at any time. The same is true of the Palestine region and the Kashmir region. In east Asia, North Korea's nuclear weapon development may force a confrontation, as might Taiwan's independence moves away from China.
|
These are examples of "something big" that might happen next year.
Perhaps 2005 will be like 1933, and nothing big will happen, even though it's the year after an election year during a generational crisis period. But there are so many things going on in the world pointing toward one crisis after another, that it's a good idea to be prepared for anything that might happen in 2005.
The American Presidential election always garners worldwide interest, but this year observers have the level of interest throughout the world to be extraordinarily high. What's equally clear is that the election has generated an enormous set of unrealistic hopes and expectations about what's going to happen after the election and inauguration are over, and that these hopes and expectations are going to be unmet.
Generational Dynamics predicts that a financial crisis and a "clash of civilizations" world war will occur in the next few years with near 100% probability. Any prediction that 2005 will be the year has to be classed as speculation, but it's informed speculation and something to watch out for.