Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Hamas Announces End of Cease-Fire

As we've indicated many times in the past year, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast since the 1989 Intifada is replaying the events of 1936-49, culminating in a major war that engulfed the entire region.

Israel

A new major war will occur with the next generational change. Once again, it will engulf the entire region, and will draw in identity group participants on both sides, including the United States on the side of Israel. The survival of Israel is not guaranteed; however, when the participants are exhausted and the war ends, there will almost certainly be some compromise which will force Palestinians and Jews to live together in the region under some set of rules which both sides will accept but neither will like.

The "next generational change" we're referring to is the one where the people with personal memories of the 1940s war disappear. The incredible irony in the Mideast today is that the opposing leaders are Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat. These two men hate each other, but they're the ones who have been cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge and can maintain control. Thus, the disappearance of either or both of these men (especially Arafat) will probably be the signal that the generational change has occurred, leading to this major regional war. Since a major Mideast war may well involve the use of weapons of mass destruction, we'll be only a few steps away from a new worldwide "clash of civilizations.".

There were two major bombings on August 19, and the differences between the two are very interesting from the point of view of Generational Dynamics:

19-Aug Truck bombing of United Nations headquarters in Baghdad

This is not likely to incite the Iraqi people to war, and could actually backfire and make the Iraqi people turn against terrorism. That's because Iraq has already had its crisis war (in the 1980s), and is now in an "awakening" period. During such a period (like the 1960s-70s in America), the public is incited to conduct riots and demonstrations but not war, and is repelled by violence.

19-Aug Suicide bombing in Jerusalem

This is likely to incite the Israelis and Palestinians to increased violence and war, because their last crisis war was in the 1940s, and they're now entering a new crisis period.

This is an excellent example of how public reactions to terrorist violence differ according to where the nation is within the generational cycle. We'll see how this plays out in the next few months.

Remember that Generational Dynamics forecasts the beliefs, attitudes and actions of large masses of people, not those of individuals. Thus, we can predict how the public's beliefs and attitudes will be changed by terrorism, but we can't predict whether terrorist acts by a few dedicated fanatics will continue.

Neither Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon wants to see a major regional war break out break out in the Mideast. They both believe that the "limited" military actions and terrorist acts on both sides are compromises that will contain the violence. They may even find a way to restore the "Mideast Roadmap" for a while. But they're both in their 70s, and once they and their generation are gone, there's no holding back the forces of total war.