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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2021
7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war

Web Log - November, 2021

7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war

UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity'

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war
Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border
Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy

UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war

Globe showing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service)

Globe showing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service)

For six weeks after the February 1 military coup in Myanmar, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, took a measured approach to the peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations. However, this was followed by "an uptick in violence and much more violent methods used to suppress the demonstrators," according to a UN report issued on Friday:

"We do feel now having observed the events and collected preliminary evidence that the facts show a widespread and systematic attack on the civilian population amounting to crimes against humanity.
This was happening in different places at the same time, indicating to us it would be logical to conclude this was from a central policy. And, also, we saw that particular groups were targeted, especially for arrests and detentions that appear to be without due process of law. And this includes, of course, journalists, medical workers and political opponents."

According to Nicholas Koumjian, the UN official who issued the report, there are more and more groups within Myanmar calling for a full civil war, which is not surprising, as the junta continues to escalate its violence.

It's worth pointing out that the junta really couldn't care less what some United Nations agency claims. Myanmar is in the opening stages of a full-scale generational crisis civil war, and no outside political pressure can have much of an effect, just as a tsunami could not be stopped by a UN agency.

In fact, none of this is particularly surprising. Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era in 2016, and the Buddhist army began by committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas. So now, the army is performing the same "clearance operations" against the Chin people in northern Myanmar, and is preparing similar operations against other non-favored ethnic populations.

Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border

According to China's state media, there are over 10,000 Chinese nationals in Myanmar waiting to cross the border into Ruili, China. Regulations and restrictions by China's government are permitting only about 100 people to cross the border into China each day. The restrictions were put in place in June because of the instability in Myanmar, and also because the delta variant of the Covid virus is spreading in China, and steps are being taken to block it.

In addition, there's also been a sharp increase in cross-border crimes against China or Chinese citizns, such as telecommunications and internet fraud, gambling and money laundering. Chinese citizens living in northern Myanmar are being told register their identities, and to confess any crimes they've committed.

Ruili is a city of 260,000 residents, and they've suffered almost 200 days under lockdown, because of the two factors -- China's Covid policy and the turmoil in Myanmar. According to the city's mayor: "The epidemic has ruthlessly looted [Ruili] over and over again, draining the city’s last trace of life and devouring the hope of its residents. Please save this hero city! Please pay attention to this beautiful border town!"

There is also anti-Chinese violence in Myanmar far from the Chinese border. Many people in Myanmar blame China for supporting the junta in its violence against peaceful protesters, and Chinese factories and citizens in Yangon have been attacked in Yangon. The Chinese have deflected these accusations by blaming the attacks on incitement by the United States.

China is actually pursuing a dual strategy in Myanmar. At the top level, and in the national media, China is not referring to a "coup," but to euphemisms like a "cabinet reshuffle." On the other hand, local media in China are referring to the violence in Myanmar following the "coup."

Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy

The coup and the threat of civil war in Myanmar have been a lot more than a mere annoyance to the Chinese. They represent a threat to China's grand geopolitical strategy for world domination.

China has for years been supplying weapons to Myanmar's government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi until the February 1 coup. Since then, the Chinese have cautiously maintained good relations with the junta, because of Myanmar's part in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

As I've written in the past, China's grand plan is that it will become the leader of the world within 5-10 years, and that almost all countries will gladly accept China's leadership. This goes beyond invading and annexing Taiwan. It also means that the 20+ border disputes that China has with India, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and other countries will be settled amicably in China's favor, and that includes China's control of the South China Sea.

China's vision is like Isaiah 2:4, which says: "The Lord will judge between the nations and will settle disputes for many peoples. They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore." This is exactly China's delusional vision, except that the role of the Lord will be played by the Chinese Communist Party. (Incidentally, that's why China is promising to stop increasing coal production by 2030.)

According to the delusion, the only possible reason why this plan might fail is that the United States would be jealous of China's power and might come to the defense of Taiwan and Japan. That's why China is developing hypersonic and ballistic nuclear missiles, in order to attack the United States and bring about this millennium of peace.

So now getting back to Myanmar, the major BRI project in Myanmar is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is strategically essential to China's grand plan, since it provides a corridor for the transport of people and goods between China's Yunnan province and the Indian Ocean, through Myanmar's ports on the Andaman Sea. This is similar to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects China's Xinjiang province to Pakistan's Gwardar port, which China now controls.

Both CMEC and CPEC are essential to China's delusional grand plan, and so the civil war in Myanmar represents a threat in two different ways -- because it could spill over into the population of China, and because it would threaten the strategically important CMEC.

So China is taking a cautious approach to the Myanmar junta. The junta leaders couldn't care less what a United Nations agency says, but they might listen to what the Chinese say. However, what's going on in Myanmar is a generational crisis civil war, and the drive to fight the war is deeply organic and buried deep in the DNA of all the parties. The Chinese probably understand that because of their own deeply organic ethnic atrocities, directed at the Uighurs and Tibetans, so all they can do is hope that the Myanmar war will fizzle out, which is highly improbable in a generational Crisis era.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Nov-2021) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2021 7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war

UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war

Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border

Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-2021
7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war