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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jul-2021
7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive

Web Log - July, 2021

7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive

Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border
Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan

Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border

Map of Afghanistan showing recent rapid advance of Taliban (Afghan-Analysts)

Map of Afghanistan showing recent rapid advance of Taliban (Afghan-Analysts)

Multiple analysts on TV have been echoing the reports that, as American and Nato troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban are taking control of the country far more rapidly than expected.

The Taliban are now in control of a third of the country. Many in the Afghan army, who are supposed to be fighting the Taliban without the aid of Nato, are apparently fleeing without a fight.

More than 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled across the border with Tajikistan, causing Tajikistan's president to call up 20,000 military reservists to guard the border. This follows a general warning to Tajikistan villagers who live along the border to be prepared "to take up arms." (See "3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability")

In May, a provincial governor announced:

"In coordination with the police and intelligence departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation dictates."

As I wrote at the time, the withdrawal of American and Nato forces in Afghanistan threatens to destabilize the entire Central Asian region that includes Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Many analysts are pointing these events out, and it's not lost on any of them that after America and Nato have had forces in Afghanistan for almost 20 years, all the work that was done is now about to be lost in a period of a few months. In particular, there are already reports that the freedoms of women and girls are already being curtailed in newly-captured Taliban areas.

Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are all members of Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia operates one of its largest military bases abroad in Tajikistan, equipped with tanks, helicopters, drones and ground attack aircraft, and Russia is promising to stabilize the border with Afghanistan if needed.

In the 1980s, Russia had an ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan (Russia's "Vietnam") fighting Islamic Pashtuns who later became the Taliban. Tajikistan and other Soviet Socialist republics, who were part of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, supported Russia's invasion. At that time, Osama bin Laden was a Sunni Muslim Saudi citizen whom the Saudis got rid of by encouraging him to travel to Afghanistan to fight against the Orthodox Christian Russian infidels. Since the Soviet Union was the West's major enemy at the time, America and other Western countries supported bin Laden and his fight with the Soviets.

After the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the situation rapidly evolved. There was an extremely bloody Afghan civil war between 1992-96, pitting radicalized Pashtuns in the south against the Northern Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks.

As I've written many times, this civil war, a generational Crisis war, is the controlling event today. Each side is bitterly angry at the atrocities, beatings, tortures and rapes perpetrated by the other side, and all many people want is revenge. That's always the nature of an ethnic civil war, and it's the reason why the Taliban will never fulfill their promises to give up violence. And that's why the remnants of the old Northern Alliance are now fleeing across the border into Tajikistan.

As I wrote at the time, the agreement between Donald Trump and the Taliban in March 2020 was entirely delusional, but was apparently driven by a desire to withdraw troops from Afghanistan no matter what the cost and no matter how humiliating to the US. Joe Biden fully endorsed the delusional agreement, and we're now seeing the results, predictable and predicted. And yes, 20 years of work is now going down the drain. ( "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan")

So Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko says:

"The situation there is rather tense because according to some sources, up to 70% of the Tajik-Afghan border is now controlled by the Taliban."

So the Northern Alliance may be reincarnated under Russian leadership. Things are changing rapidly in Afghanistan, as the last American and Nato troops prepare to leave, and many analysts are foreseeing a catastrophe.

Sources:

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Jul-2021) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jul-2021 7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive

Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border

Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jul-2021
7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive