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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2020
23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

Web Log - September, 2020

23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan

by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
China's incursion strategy
China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan

China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on Monday (Taipei Times)

Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen on Monday (Taipei Times)

The Chinese Communists further escalated the tensions with Taiwan on Sunday, by sending a mass of 43 warplanes across the Taiwan Strait, crossing the historic "median line" or "middle line" separating China from Taiwan, and entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ).

The incursions came from multiple directions and involved a combination of sophisticated fighter jets and heavy bombers, without modern precedent, marking a significant escalation in cross-strait tensions. Taiwan responded by scrambling its own warplanes, which intercepted the Chinese warplanes and escorted them back in the direction of China.

The Chinese Communists went even further when Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin claimed in a statement that "Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory; there is no so-called median line of the strait." The "median line" was established in 1954 to establish rules to prevent Taiwan-China conflicts. The sudden declaration that the median line does not exist is the latest flouting of international law by the Chinese Communist Master Race.

Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen accused China of threatening regional stability, and praised the "heroic performance" of Taiwan's pilots in intercepting the Chinese warplanes:

"I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the Republic of China [Taiwan], how could we let enemies strut around in our own airspace?"

The Chinese Communists have indicated that the intrusions are retaliation for a visit to Taiwan by U.S. Under Secretary of State Keith Krach last week to attend the memorial service of late President Lee Teng-hui.

China's incursion strategy

According to an analysis by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), China has commited more than 4,400 intrusions into the ADIZs of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan since 2013. There have been thousands of intrusions into Japan's ADIZ, hundreds into South Korea's ADIZ, and two dozen into Taiwan's ADIZ.

This is consistent with the findings of my 2019 book, "War Between China and Japan - Why America must be prepared," in which I found, after extensive research, that China is planning for and preparing for a war of revenge against Japan, and a war of annexation against Taiwan.

According to a FAS analysis:

"Over the last decade, Chinese flights in the East China Sea have become increasingly more sophisticated. Intrusions in the early 2010s often featured single Y-8 early warning aircraft flying near the Senkakus to the Miyako Strait. By the late 2010s, Chinese flights evolved into more specialized training missions featuring multiple independent flight groups of various aircraft packages conducting increasingly long-range flights to the Pacific."

These "training missions" are preparing China for its revenge invasion of Japan.

With regard to Taiwan, the FAS analysis found: "Chinese air provocations against Taiwan manifest in three ways: circumnavigational flights of Taiwan, ADIZ intrusions, and violations of the cross-strait median line. Circumnavigational flights are the most common provocation, followed by ADIZ intrusions. Violations of the median line are widely seen as the most provocative action and as a result are rare." The FAS report is several months old, and the violations of the median line are now more frequent and, indeed, China now says that the median line does not exist.

The FAS analysis gives "four clear objectives" of China's intrusions into the ADIZ's of other countries:

to conduct training missions to prepare pilots for encountering foreign air forces during long-range flights;
to probe and gather intel on Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese forces;
to demonstrate air power capable of protecting its territorial and security interests;
and to apply coercive pressure to decouple coalitions resistant to Chinese influence in the region.

"On this last point it is important to remember that China not only seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious partners like the Komeito."

China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan

In 2016, Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by Tsai Ing-wen, defeated the pro-Beijing Kuomintang (KMT) party in the presidential election, changing the directions of Taiwan's politics, and also changing the direction of China-Taiwan relations. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election")

Prior to 2016, when the pro-Beijing KMT was in power, relations were very cordial, with the Chinese Communists indulging in the fantasy that if they were nice to Taiwan, then the Taiwanese people would actually want to give up their nation, and become a province of China. That was never going to happen, but the election of Tsai Ing-wen as president destroyed the fantasy for all but the most delusional Chinese Communists.

According to analysis by the Shanghai-based Fudan University, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has adopted a set of dual-track policies towards Taiwan.

One set of policies are used to "tighten the noose on Taipei to contain the pro-independence momentum." Some of these policies are as follows:

Escalating military deterrence toward Taiwan, such as the last week's intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ by dozens of Chinese warplanes.

Adopting no-contact policy by cutting off all levels of political communications DPP politicians in Taiwan with any mainland institutions or officials. The CPP tolerated this contacts when the KMT was in power.

Using a variety of coercive techniques -- bribery and extortion -- to get other countries to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Preventing Taiwan from participating in various international organizations, such as the World Health Organization.

Blacklsting actors, singers and other entertainment industry figures who have expressed pro-independence views.

The second track of Taiwan policies is for politicians and other Taiwanese individuals who have expressed pro-Beijing views or at least have been neutral on the independence questions. Generally speaking, these are the same policies that Beijing applied to everyone in Taiwan when the KMT was in power, but they are now blocked for anyone expressing pro-independence views.

According to the report, Beijing's aim is to more closely integrate Taiwan into China in economic, social and cultural fields:

"[For example, in February 2018], Beijing unveiled 31 preferential measures covering fields of industry, finance and taxation, land use, employment, education and health care. The essential objective of Beijing is to integrate Taiwan people and companies more closely with China.
Since the introduction of the 31 preferential measures, it is reported that more than 2,000 enterprises with investment from Taiwan have enjoyed preferential tax treatment on the mainland and more than 100 enterprises have secured special financial support under programs for industrial transformation and upgrading, green manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing. Additionally, Beijing annulled administrative restrictions on high-skilled professionals and technical personnel from 134 listed professions in order to attract as many well-educated Taiwanese as possible to open businesses and lead a life on the mainland."

Reading through the two tracks of these policies, I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone would think that either set of policies would make any citizen of Taiwan want Taiwan to become a province of China. How do the Chinese Communists benefit from this nonsense? I'm always talking about the incredible stupidity of the CCP thugs, and this looks like just one more example.

In fact, the published report seems to agree. According to the report, these dual-track policies have produced counter-productive consequences, including the following:

Beijing's pressure in security, political and diplomatic areas has aroused backlash from the DPP, and even stimulated pro-independence figures to advocate more radical pro-independence initiatives.

"Instead, the mainland's confrontational approaches in security, political and diplomatic frontiers would undermine the credibility and sincerity of Beijing's conciliatory gestures in economic, social and cultural areas. The strained cross-Strait relations will inevitably exacerbate the hostility and drive common Taiwanese to turn their back on the mainland China, which will consequently make it harder, instead of easier, to charm the public into favoring Beijing's ultimate goal of unifying the two sides peacefully."

Beijing's hardline stance undermines its efforts to achieve reunification by "winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people." The enduring standoff has already strengthened and deepened civilian distrust and antagonism between the two societies.

I've said many times that the Chinese Communist Party thugs consistently follow one incredibly stupid policy after another. The most disastrous policies since WW II were the Great Leap Forward, which killed 50 million innocent Chinese will destroying the economy for decades, and the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which was so horrific that the CCP is still pretending that it never happened. Whether it's a policy regarding Hong Kong, the South China Sea, the Uighurs in Xinjiang, or anything else, I've often said that I don't know what the CCP will do, but I can guarantee that whatever they do, they will make the situation worse.

In fact, even the Chinese Communists don't seriously believe that this nonsense will make the Taiwanese want to become provincial citizens of China. There is only one way that all this benefits the Chinese Communists. According to analysts, referring to the massive intrusions into Taiwan's airspace: "PLA drills this time are not a warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover."

In other words, the Chinese Communists are not trying to charm the Taiwanese people. What they're actually doing is preparing to launch a war -- against Taiwan, against Japan, and against the United States -- and everything that the Chinese Communists are doing is to help them prepare for those wars.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the Generational Dynamics World View News thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Sep-2020) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2020 23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan

China's incursion strategy

China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Sep-2020
23-Sep-20 World View -- China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan