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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2011
29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran

Web Log - May, 2011

29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran

Reasons for a strategic Israeli-Saudi alliance

Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran

There are an increasing number of reports appearing indicating that Israel and Saudi Arabia are forming an "alliance of necessity" against Iran, after leadership in both countries have become at least partially estranged from the White House and the Obama administration.

Saudi King Abdullah

Saudi King Abdullah

There have been reports of this kind before. Last year in June, Israel National News reported, based on stories on Iranian and Islamic news sites, that Israel was setting up a military base in Tabuk, in northwest Saudi Arabia, in preparation for an attack on Iran. As rumors have spread, one civilian was quoted as saying, "The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become the talk of the town."

Those stories have turned out not to be true, but an Israeli-Saudi alliance has become more credible since the beginning of the "Arab uprisings" across the Middle East. Both the Saudis and the Israelis believe that Washington is mishandling these uprisings, and they're making their own preparations, based on their feared anxieties over Iran's development of nuclear technology.

The incident that began the estrangement of Saudi King Abdullah from the White House was President Obama's humiliation of long-time ally Hosni Mubarak, calling for him to step down in the face of the student protests. This raised the fear the Obama would also call for Saudi King Abdullah to step down, and led to the conclusion that the U.S. could no longer be trusted, especially with regard to the danger from Iran. (See "21-May-11 News -- Saudi Arabia advances Gulf Cooperation Council, further cuts U.S. ties.")

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama have always had a frosty relationship, especially with regard to the issue of Iran, but it really spiraled downward after the President's recent Mideast peace process speech, in which he appeared to be endorsing the Palestinian position on 1967 borders. Although this has been denied, what's undeniable is that the speech has triggered a series of speech / counter-speech events, as well as statements from the Palestinians, with the result that all parties have now openly taken the most hardline possible positions, and there is no discernable "peace process." (See "25-May-11 News -- Palestinians slam Netanyahu's speech to Congress.")

Reasons for a strategic Israeli-Saudi alliance

Despite major differences and a history of enmity, a strategic alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia makes sense for several reasons, according to an April report by security and intelligence analyst David Virgil Dafinoiu:

Israel's leaders are more loyal to their Arab allies than President Obama.

The Arab uprisings have shown that a campaign of anti-Semitism against Israel no longer guarantees an Arab regime‘s political survival, as seen in Syria, Libya and Yemen.

Both the Saudis and Israelis consider Iran to be a major danger, but Obama will never advocate a military solution against Iran.

Establishing a Palestinian state is not in the best interests of Saudi Arabia or Israel, since Hamas might gain control of the state, making it a new Iranian base of operations.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these conclusions about Iran are highly suspect. Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and the chances of it launching a preemptive war are pretty much zero. Furthermore, Iran is going through a major "generation gap" political crisis, and even Iran's support of Hamas and Hizbollah is being questioned internally.

Nonetheless, these conclusions are widely believed, and would provide the motivation to form an alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

According to an analysis in the Debka subscriber-only newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber:

"Saudi Arabia and Israel have been cooperating quietly on issues of shared interest for three years starting in the days of Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert. But the basis of understanding has broadened and strengthened in the four months since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the falling-out between Abdullah and President Barack Obama over the latter's Middle East policy.
When the Israeli prime minister met Obama at the White House Friday, May 20, ... he made no secret of the relationship he had set in motion with Riyadh. ... Netanyahu let it be understood that his own Palestinian steps had been coordinated with the Saudis and through them with the GCC Gulf emirates and Jordan's King Abdullah II. ...
This new connection also gave Netanyahu the chance to disavow any impression of Israel scrapping its military option for preventing Iran attaining a nuclear bomb. ... The prime minister was very clear about this at the White House: Not only has Israel not abandoned this option, but it is determined to exercise it with Saudi assistance - in lieu of the United States if need be.
This determination was reflected in his words to Congress: "The more Iran believes that all options are on the table, the less the chance of confrontation," he said. "This is why I ask you to continue to send an unequivocal message: American will never permit Iran to develop nuclear weapons. As for Israel, if history has taught the Jewish people anything, it is that we must take calls for our destruction seriously. We are a nation that rose from the ashes of the Holocaust. When we say never again, we mean never again. Israel always reserves the right to defend itself."
[T]he accords Israel has reached with the Saudis do not constitute a formal pact or treaty but rather a row of strategic understandings hammered out in fairly regular, unpublicized encounters between Israeli and Saudi intelligence chiefs at which Netanyahu too has put in an appearance."

When President Obama took office, he promised to make a series of steps, starting with his Cairo speech, that would make friends with the entire Arab and Muslim world. Ironically, these steps have backfired, and the U.S. now has fewer friends and allies in the Mideast than it did before.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-May-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2011 29-May-11 News -- Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran

Israel and Saudi Arabia form an 'alliance of necessity' against Iran

Reasons for a strategic Israeli-Saudi alliance

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