	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Mar-2011
21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel

Web Log - March, 2011

21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel

Arab League support for attack on Libya is fraying

March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel

Israel has vowed to lash back at Hamas, after Hamas reversed a two-year old policy and took credit for launching anti-tank missiles and mortars into southern Israel, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Gaza Palestinians demand reconciliation between factions

Gaza Palestinians demand reconciliation between factions

These were the worst attacks since Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which ended in early 2009.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he viewed seriously the "criminal attacks by Hamas on Israeli citizens. Israel will take all necessary measures to defend its citizens." He added that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will consider resuming ground action in Gaza.

Hamas announced that the reason for the attacks was the Israel Air Force attack Wednesday on a Hamas training camp. But that attack was a tit-for-tat result of Hamas missile strike a few hours earlier, according to an analysis by Haaretz, which points out that neither side wants a wider war at this time.

However, the motivation for Hamas's attacks is far more complex, according to an analysis by the Palestine News Network.

While the world media have been focused on the "Arab Revolutions" occurring in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Libya, there is also one growing in the Palestinian territories.

Known as the "March 15 Movement," it's a youth-driven movement demanding that the competing Palestinian factions, Fatah (Palestinian Authority (PA) / Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)) versus Hamas, reconcile with one another. Fatah governs the West Bank, while Hamas governs Gaza, following a 2007 war between the two factions.

The March 15 youth movement is still demonstrating against the Israelis, but this particular movement has as its objective the reconciliation of the two Palestinian factions.

Hamas is opposed to any reconciliation, and so Hamas has reversed its position and is launching mortars into southern Israel, in the hope of triggering an Israeli incursion into Gaza, according to the analysis.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Fatah and Hamas represent two different generations.

In America, the Republican party largely represents the older Boomer/Silent generations, while the Democratic party largely represents middle generation, Generation-X. The young Millennial generation is split between the two, but is mostly pissed off by the extreme ideological division and bickering between the two groups.

In the Palestinian territories, Fatah represents the older generations, while Hamas represents the middle generation. The younger generation are pissed off at the division between the two, and are demanding reconciliation.

Just as in America people on each side are loathe to give up their comfortable ideologically extreme positions, members of Hamas, particularly, are not willing to give up their ideological positions and their control of Gaza. Thus, they're promoting a conflict with Israel in order to end the March 15 movement.

However, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is pressing very hard for a reconciliation, according to the Jerusalem Post. Abbas is asking for help from Egypt, and is planning to visit the Gaza Strip in the near future, to discuss reconciliation.

According to the Palestine News Network, thousands of non-partisan youth flooded into Gaza's central square as March 15 approached, but were driven back by Hamas security forces with batons and metal rods. Journalists were also attacked, and their cameras and tapes were confiscated.

Apparently the only images of the demonstration that weren't destroyed are from the Maan News Agency, including the one shown at the beginning of this report.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast will re-fight the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine, and the creation of the state of Israel. As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you the final destination, but doesn't tell you the scenario that will occur to get there.

Recent events since the beginning of the "Arab Revolution" indicate that the coming regional war will not be split simply along Arab/Jewish lines. The passions that surrounded the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 are in the past, and it would be a mistake to assume that the same behaviors and attitudes that were prevalent in the 1950s and 1960s are still prevalent today. The Arab nations have some of the highest birth rates in the world, meaning that the large young generations feel little or no connection to the attitudes of the past.

I've previously suggested that it appears likely that Egypt will side with Israel and the West in the coming war. (See "14-Feb-11 News -- Reader question about the Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.") It's also worth noting that al-Qaeda's influence appears to be collapsing in the region, though the terrorist group is still dangerous.

The Hamas/Fatah split, and the working relationship that the PA has had with Israel, indicate that even among the Palestinians, there may be some that take the side of Israel, when forced to make a choice between what they consider to be the lesser of two evils. In treacherous times like these, every assumption must be questioned, and nothing can be taken for granted.

Arab League support for attack on Libya is fraying

Qatar is the first Arab country to announce that it will join the Western coalition against Libya, according to Bloomberg.

However, Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa is now objecting to the amount of force being used in Libya, according to the Washington Post. He said that the amount of force being used is not justified to implement a no-fly zone, and he would call a new Arab League meeting to reconsider their approval of the intervention.

The Arabs are far from united about the Libyan invasion, according to a Debka analysis. In particular, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt are opposed to the operation, although they're keeping quiet for now.

Furthermore, another weakness in the alliance is that it lacks an African partner. US officials had originally spoken of support form the African Union, but all governments of Africa are opposed to the ouster of Gaddafi, according to the analysis.

Yemen's ambassador to United Nations resigns over violence

President Ali Abdullah Saleh sacked his entire cabinet on Sunday, after continuing violence against anti-government protesters have left around 100 dead, many shot dead by government snipers, according to the Independent. Saleh has been in power since 1978, and the departure of his cabinet ministers leaves him increasingly isolated. The protesters are demanding that he step down.

Syria protesters torch buildings

Thousands of protesters took to the streets on Sunday in the city of Deraa in southern Lebanon, near the border of Jordan, One person was killed and scores injured when security forces used live rounds against protesters, according to Al-Jazeera. Dozens were also treated for tear gas inhalation.

Tunisia and Egypt are two countries where the trends are not worsening, but those are also the only two countries where the leaders stepped down almost immediately. These seems little chance of that happening in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria or Libya.

Since January, the Mideast has become more unstable almost every day. This is a major trend in a generational Crisis era, when this kind of instability is likely to increase. If the trend continues, then there will be regional war by the end of the year.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Mar-2011 21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel

March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel

Arab League support for attack on Libya is fraying

Yemen's ambassador to United Nations resigns over violence

Syria protesters torch buildings

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Mar-2011
21-Mar-11 News -- March 15 reconciliation movement triggers Hamas attacks on Israel