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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-2011
30-Jan-11 News -- Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'

Web Log - January, 2011

30-Jan-11 News -- Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'

Global food crisis continues to grow

Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'

Rioting in Egypt continued on Saturday, especially in the cities of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria. Almost 100 people have died, and 2,500 injured, according to the Telegraph.

Looting was widespread, as the police have apparently withdrawn. The army patrols are providing some protection, but not much. However, neighborhood watch groups are providing protection for homes and stores.

President Hosni Mubarak has refused to step down, further energizing the protesters. It's unknown whether Mubarak will order the army to use all force necessary to stop the riots and, if he does, whether the army will obey.

So far, there is little evidence that this rioting might spread into a larger war.

Protesters are demanding only one thing: the resignation of Mubarak. They're demanding "change," specifically regime change.

They are not demanding economic changes.
They certainly aren't demanding anything related to Hamas.
They aren't demanding anything related to al-Qaeda.
They aren't shouting, "Death to Israel!" They aren't shouting "Death to America!"
No one has burned an Israeli flag. No one has burned an American flag.
They only want the resignation of Mubarak.

Journalists continue to expect the worst to happen. For example, the Jerusalem Post says:

"This year is turning into a critical one for Israel, which is becoming more isolated in the ME. Turkey is gone and Egypt appears to be on the way.
The collapse of Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt is not yet about Israel but soon will be, depending on his successor.
If the Muslim Brotherhood grabs the reins in the massive Arab country, Israel will face an enemy with one of the largest and strongest militaries around, built on some of the most advanced American-made platforms.
The impact on Israel will be immediate – the IDF will need to undergo major structural changes, new units will need to be created and forces in the South will likely need to be beefed up. Since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, the IDF has not had to worry about two fronts at once. Until now."

The substance of this article, that Israel is becoming increasingly isolated from its neighborsis true, and is consistent with the Generational Dynamics prediction that Arabs and Jews will be fighting a major new, refighting the genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioining of Palestine and the creation of Israel.

However, there is little evidence that this particular event, the riots in Egypt, will be the trigger for this war.

So far, the riots in Egypt seem to be purely about Egyptian politics, not about the Israelis, Palestinians or Americans. And so far, the widespread concerns about the Muslim Brotherhood seem almost paranoid. However, the danger is far from over.

The crowd reactions that we're seeing in Egypt are typical of a generational Crisis era. We've seen this kind of crowd reaction right here in America, when Obama was campaigning. Obama drew huge, enthusiastic crowds of young people who didn't have the vaguest idea what Obama was saying, except that they heard the word "Change," and concluded that any change was better than what was going on.

The young people of Egypt are having a similar experience. They're demanding "change" -- specifically regime change -- without having any idea what kind of change they're demanding, or whether the change will make things better or worse.

In fact, it will almost certainly make everything worse -- global food prices are still surging to fresh historic highs, the riots will hurt the financial markets and increase unemployment, and in a worst case scenario, the Suez Canal will be shut down.

What will the young people do when it becomes clear that even regime change hasn't improved their lives? What "change" will they want next?

Perhaps at that point, the Muslim Brotherhood will be able to take advantage of the situation. But unless MB officials can convince the public that threatening Israel in some way will lower the price of food or lower unemployment for Egyptians, then it's unlikely that any such threat will materialize.

Global food crisis continues to grow

In my opinion, the biggest threat to world stability today is not riots in Egypt but surging food prices that are already at historic highs and are expected to go even higher. High prices were the trigger for riots in Tunisia and Egypt, and they're causing further riots in Jordan and Yemen.

On the one hand, some countries are imposing export restrictions on food. Thanks to a drought last year, Russia and Ukraine have both imposed export restrictions, according to Reuters.

On the other hand, some countries are stockpiling large amounts of food, according to the Telegraph. This is amounting to panic buying.

Algeria last week purchased 800,000 tonnes of milling wheat, enough to provide the country with a 12 month reserve.

Bangladesh is tripling its rice imports, and Indonesia this week bought 820,000 tonnes of Thai rice.

All of these factors are contributing to lower available supply of food, causing further higher prices.

According to an analysis by the Financial Times (Access), the signs of a full-scale food crisis are appearing.

According to the article, the 2007-2008 food crisis followed a chain of events that are being repeated today:

Crop failures.
Export restrictions.
Food riots, causing governments to panic.
Panic buying.

As these trends continue, shortages will become more evident, pushing prices higher, leading to outright panic buying. The result will be increased instablity in the Mideast and in developing nations around the world.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jan-11 News -- Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (30-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-2011 30-Jan-11 News -- Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'

Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'

Global food crisis continues to grow

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-2011
30-Jan-11 News -- Rioting continues in Egypt, as young demonstrators demand 'change'