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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2011
23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse

Web Log - January, 2011

23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse

Sixteen reasons why a Wall Street panic may be close

International Iran nuclear talks collapse

Turkey had hoped to act as mediator between Iran and the international community in reaching some kind mutual agreement on nuclear development by Iran. To that end, the Turks convened a two-day meeting of European and Iranian officials in Istanbul.

The talks ended on Saturday, according to VOA, with the following announcement from European Union Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton:

"We had hoped to embark on a discussion of practical ways forward, and have made every effort to make that happen. I am disappointed to say that this has not been possible. "We had hoped to have a detailed and constructive discussion of those ideas. But it became clear that the Iranian side was not ready for this, unless we agreed to preconditions relating to enrichment and sanctions. Both these preconditions are not the way to proceed."

Iran's top negotiator Saeed Jalili held a press conference on Saturday. Iran's Fars news agency quotes him as follows:

"We have always stressed that talks can be useful, successful and progressive only when they are based on a common logic.
If you decide to use another instrument instead of common logic, this would result in dictation and not negotiation, and dictation does not deserve a kind of talks based on the nations' cultures.
On the very same basis, we proposed the Istanbul talks in the Geneva meeting because we believed that a majority of talks over international issues can be held on the basis of the Islamic civilization.
Our Geneva agreement included several key points, including talks for cooperation on common points.
This was our agreement in Geneva, which surely inspires everybody's mind with the idea that when cooperation on common points is the agenda of talks, such negotiations should advance and be progressive. When the decision has been made to talk over common points and talk for cooperation, then such talks can certainly be progressive, successful and constructive. ...
[The talks can be successful] when the requirements of this common logic are clear. When you speak of cooperation, you must avoid whatever causes confrontation and animosity towards a nation, when you speak of cooperation on common points, you must surely respect the nations' rights.
What has been enshrined in the international rules and regulations in a straightforward manner provides the necessary grounds for talks. I don't think that if you tell the international community and the world that talks should be based on the nations' rights, the world would interpret it as a precondition for talks.
Respect for the nations' rights provides the necessary grounds for negotiations.
Common logic can help provide a constructive ground for more talks and cooperation. On the same basis, we came to Istanbul with a positive look and initiative and with certain proposals. We thought and do think that Iran's capacities today are undeniable and can provide very good opportunities for cooperation at the international level and we entered the talks with a really constructive view and presented our proposals.
Jalili said Tehran has stressed during the talks that international rules and regulations should form the basis of a common logic for talks while both sides should respect the nations' rights and avoid wrong attitudes in the course of negotiations. ...
A rigid cooperation should be launched among nations to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons.
One of the basic discussions emphasized in these talks was the need for the recognition of the NPT member states. [i.e., states that have signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.] The NPT members are entitled to certain rights, and there should be a balance between the member states' rights and undertakings.
Lack of balance between these two would hurt the NPT.
These are not preconditions, rather they are requirements for talks and discussions."

And so, another international meeting has turned out to be an almost total waste of time, except to provide proof that these meetings are an almost total waste of time.

The thing to be watching in the weeks to come is how Israel will react to this collapse. International observers have expressed concern that the Americans or the Israelis will launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear installations.

In fact, Israel National News, in a story on the collapse of Iran talks, quotes former British PM Tony Blair as saying the following on Friday:

"Extremism can't be managed. It has to be confronted and changed. Iran is a looming challenge. It is negative and destabilizing. It supports terrorists,” Blair said, adding that Britain needed to stand as strongly against Iran as it had against Iraq.
"I say this to you with all of the passion I possibly can; at some point the West has to get out of what I think is a wretched policy or posture of apology for believing that we are causing what the Iranians are doing, or what these extremists are doing, that we have to get our head out of the sand. They disagree fundamentally with our way of life and will carry on unless met with determination and, if necessary, force."

And so, Dear Reader, anything might happen at this point.

Sixteen reasons why a Wall Street panic may be close

"Higgenbotham" in the Financial Topics thread of the Generational Dynamics forum was asked why he believes that a Wall Street panic could be near. Here are his reasons, from most important to least important:

US Muni bond indices collapsing
US State bankruptcy procedures being seriously discussed, indicating bankruptcies are imminent
Several US housing markets making new post bubble lows and the trend appears to be accelerating
Rising US, German and French bond yields, while at the same time PIIGS bond yields remain elevated
Recent Gallup spending survey shows a collapse in US consumer spending in January 2011
Leading Asian stock markets have been rolling over since November
Russell 2000 Index lost 3% last week while the Dow gained 1%
Many sentiment indicators near or at records
Recent speeches by top Fed officials indicate dissent and fear is building
Oil and gasoline prices moving into danger zone (subject to interpretation)
US Mutual Fund cash levels at record lows (this condition can persist for months)
NYSE and NASDAQ short interest at post 2007 lows (same here)
High NYSE margin debt (and here)
Silver prices starting to lag gold prices (probably not by enough yet to cause concern)
ECRI and CMI Indices lagging stock market (this could be interpreted as bullish)
US traffic volume still well under its 2007 high and not improving much (and here)

He adds that, "Low stock prices convince most people that lower stock prices are to follow. High stock prices convince most people that higher stock prices are to follow. And it will forever be thus."

In response, forum member "vincecate" pointed to one more sign: Zero Hedge is pointing out that, for the first time in years, and possibly for the first time ever, there were no insider purchases of stock last week. That is, insiders sold $163 million worth of stock, but there was not one single purchase of stock by an insider.

Those insiders must be telling us something.

Additional links

In a very significant development, Tunisia's police joined with the protesters in anti-government demonstrations. This means that the police will not be firing bullets at the protesters, which is a very good sign, and, as I said, very significant. UK Press Association

While protests continue in Tunisia, copycat protests are appearing in other Arab and Muslim countries. Dozens were injured when pro-democracy protesters clashed with police in Algiers, the capital of Algeria. In Yemen, hundreds of students held protests at Sanaa University in the capital city, Sanaa. In Egypt, a national day of action is scheduled for Tuesday, to protest the 29-year regim led by President Hosni Mubarak. Deutsche-Welle

At least three people were killed and dozens were injured in another "Tunisia style uprising," this time in Tirana, the capital of mostly Muslim Albania. VOA

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2011 23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse

International Iran nuclear talks collapse

Sixteen reasons why a Wall Street panic may be close

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2011
23-Jan-11 News -- International Iran nuclear talks collapse