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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jan-2011
14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses

Web Log - January, 2011

14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses

Will the U.S. military reenter Lebanon?

Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops stationed near the Lebanon border were put on high alert on Thursday, following the collapse of Lebanon's government on Wednesday. The fear was that the political turmoil might cause renewed violence that could spill over into Israel, according to Haaretz.

However, no reserves have been called up, as would be necessary if violence were immediately threatened.

The Prime Minister of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, the son of the national hero Rafiq Hariri, who was killed in 2005 by a terrorist bomb. (See "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock" for more details.)

The terrorist group Hizbollah, supported by Syria and Iran, was assumed to have perpetrated the assassination. The United Nations appointed a "Special Tribunal for Lebanon" (STL), whose purpose was to investigate and determine guilt.

The investigation is now complete. The final report of the STL has been completed. The conclusions have not yet been made public, but it's widely expected that some high-level Hizbollah figures are going to be indicted.

In order to derail the STL report, the political wing of Hizbollah pulled its members out of Said Hariri's governing coalition on Wednesday, just when Hariri was visiting Washington, causing the government to collapse. Hariri is now the "caretaker prime minister," until a new government can be formed.

Will the United States reenter Lebanon?

According to Debka, an analyst group that has contacts within Israeli intelligence but sometimes gets things wrong, the U.S. is considering getting involved in Lebanon for the first time since the 1980. At that time, American peacekeeping troops were in Lebanon, but in 1984, the bombing of the American embassy in Beirut killed 19 top CIA agents, and the bombing of the Marine headquarters killed 241 American troops.

According to the Debka report, the American military will "use force to defend the Saad Hariri government in Lebanon and if necessary deploy aerial forces and the marines to avert a Hizballah takeover in Beirut."

According to the report, "Over the weekend, the US president ordered US vessels to buttress the Sixth Fleet stationed in the eastern Mediterranean with the USS Enterprise carrier and its strike group with 6,000 sailors and marines aboard and 80 fighter-bombers." In addition, "The French fleet was also ordered to bolster its naval strength opposite Lebanon."

However, the Pentagon is denying the Debka report, and saying that no American warships had been sent to the waters off Lebanon, according to Naharnet (Lebanon) and AFP. The Pentagon spokesman added, "We continue to monitor the situation very closely,"

It's always difficult to know what to make of these Debka reports. On the one hand, they're highly authoritative, but on the other hand, they've often predicted imminent attacks by or on Iran, by or on Israel, and by or on Gaza, almost none of which have materialized.

Lebanon itself is in a generational Awakening era, and so an internal (civil) war is impossible, and indeed, Hizobollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is categorically saying that the government collapse won't lead to civil war, according to Haaretz.

However, there are still plenty of opportunities for war. Israel and Hizbollah already fought a war in 2006, and now Iran and Syria are playing a game of Let's You and Him Fight with a re-armed Hizbollah and a newly confident Israel and, just as happens with the sexual game, the erotic lure of one or both parties finishing up what they started in 2006 may be irresistible.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Jan-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jan-2011 14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses

Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses

Will the United States reenter Lebanon?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jan-2011
14-Jan-11 News -- Israeli troops on high alert after Lebanon's government collapses