	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Nov-2010
20-Nov-10 News -- Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism

Web Log - November, 2010

20-Nov-10 News -- Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism

A combination of realism, hysteria, paranoia, and pathological hatred.

Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism

Reports this year indicate that the level of terrorist violence in Russia's southern provinces (the northern Caucasus) has been growing rapidly in 2010, especially in Dagestan, leading some Russian officials to wonder if they're losing the war in the Caucasus completely.

Dagestan's local population has been increasingly Muslim each year, according to an analysis by the Jamestown Foundation. This has even caused a split in the Siloviki -- Russia's army and security forces conducting operations against the militants in the Caucasus -- with some of them siding with the militants.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the increasing tension in the Caucasus is not surprising. For the last millennium, one of the world's great fault lines has been between the Orthodox Christian civilization, centered in Moscow, and the Sunni Muslim civilization, centered in Istanbul. This fault line has led to many generational crisis wars, with some of the bloodiest occurring in the Caucasus.

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Northern Caucasus -- Russia's southern provinces - Sochi 2014 logo at left is site of 2014 winter Olympics

Analyst Paul Goble, writing for Eurasia Review, has found that intellectual leaders in Russia's Muslim community have been considering the question of what the sources of Islamophobia are in Russia.

This is kind of a strange question, since Islamist terrorists have been perpetrating terrorist attacks since the 1990s, and so I'm tempted to say that it could only take an intellectual to ask such a dumb question. Still, it's an interesting analysis. The intellectuals that Goble quotes give three reasons:

One group blame it on the Israelis: The rise of anti-Muslim attitudes in Russia is part of a general preparation for a major war in the Middle East that Israel plans to launch against Palestine, Iran and Lebanon. According to this theory, Israel and their allies "want to explain to the world and in particular to Russia" that all Muslims are enemies, terrorists, and murderers. By "blackening the reputation" of Muslims and "demonizing them," the Israelis and their allies are driving a wedge between Muslims and non-Muslims in Russia. (Paragraph updated - 20-Nov)

A second group blame the Russians rather than the Israelis. They blame Moscow for trying to coerce Muslims to adapt to Russian life, and to dilute the Muslim culture.

A third group blame the siloviki (Russia's army and security forces) responsible for security in the North Caucasus, because they see Muslims as linked to Arab jihadists, and thus take actions against Muslims suspected of such links and that in turn feeds on xenophobic attitudes among the Russian population more generally.

I've written many articles about attitudes related to xenophobia in the West (see, for example, "American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right"). All of these attitudes are a mixture of realism, hysteria, paranoia and pathological hatred.

I like the phrase "looking for ways." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these xenophobic attitudes increase during generational Crisis eras. During the 1960s-90s, when WW II survivors (GI and Silent generations) were in charge, people were "looking for ways" to get along with one another and to like one another, because they realized how easily xenophobia could slide into war.

Today, many people are "looking for ways" to dislike one another. This creates a vicious cycle when, for example, ethnic or religious discrimination leads to terrorist violence which leads to more discrimination, and there's no will to break the cycle. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is how world wars begin.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Nov-10 News -- Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Nov-2010) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Nov-2010 20-Nov-10 News -- Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism

Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Nov-2010
20-Nov-10 News -- Muslim / Russia xenophobia grows with Caucasus terrorism