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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Sep-2010
18-Sep-10 News -- Near-zero CPI hints at deflation

Web Log - September, 2010

18-Sep-10 News -- Near-zero CPI hints at deflation

Housing foreclosures continue to hit new record levels

Consumer Price Index remains near zero, hinting at deflation

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% in August, mainly because of a big jump in gasoline prices.

However, the "Core CPI" index, which is the CPI, but excluding volatile food and energy costs, was flat (0% rise), according to Reuters.

Pundits are concerned about deflation, according to the article, which quotes an economist as saying, "It keeps alive the possibility that the (inflation) trend could turn negative over the next year or two."

As I've been saying for several years, we're in a deflationary spiral. Deflation has been held off by means of low interest rates, quantitative easing, and massive bailouts and stimulus programs. If we were in any other generational era, it would mean massive inflation, but in this generational crisis era, deflationary trends cannot be overcome.

The economy has been continuing its decline since May, as I first wrote about in "7-Jun-10 News -- Globally, May was a month of ominous events."

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpected contracted in September, for a second month, as orders and sales declined, according to Bloomberg.

U.S. home foreclosures reached a fresh record for the third time in five months, according to Bloomberg. The foreclosure crisis is far from over, according to the article. According to one economist, about 2 million homes will be foreclosed through 2011. "More serious price depreciation" in housing in forecast, with the possibility that "things [will] fall precipitously."

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Sep-10 News -- Near-zero CPI hints at deflation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Sep-2010) Permanent Link
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