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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jul-2010
29-Jul-10 News -- British PM sides with India against Pakistan

Web Log - July, 2010

29-Jul-10 News -- British PM sides with India against Pakistan

Mideast Peace talks face Sept. 26 deadline when settlement freeze ends

Britain's PM David Cameron sides with India against Pakistan

British Prime Minister David Cameron has been a busy little bee this week, as he goes from country to country.

Yesterday I reported that Cameron, in Ankara, Turkey, sided with Turkey against Israel. (See "28-Jul-10 News -- Britain's PM sides with Turkey against Israel.")

On Wednesday, Cameron was in Bangalore, India, siding with India against Pakistan.

The Guardian quoted Cameron as follows, referring to Pakistan:

"We cannot tolerate in any sense the idea that this country is allowed to look both ways and is able, in any way, to promote the export of terror, whether to India or whether to Afghanistan or anywhere else in the world.

That is why this relationship is important. It should be a relationship based on a very clear message: that it is not right to have any relationship with groups that are promoting terror. Democratic states that want to be part of the developed world cannot do that. The message to Pakistan from the US and the UK is very clear on that point."

Cameron was reacting to several recent charges that Pakistan's government, especially Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, has been helping terrorists in Afghanistan and India. These charges infuriate the Pakistanis, and they vehemently deny them. However, Cameron appears to be decisively siding with India against Pakistan.

There are two major categories of these charges that Pakistan supports terrorists:

In November, 2008, Mumbai suffered a horrific terrorist attack that lasted three days, killing 166 and injuring hundreds. Pakistan and India almost went to war when it became clear that the perpetrators were the Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Toiba, committed to Pakistan's takeover of Indian-controlled Kashmir. India threatened to go after Lashkar-e-Toiba on Pakistani soil, but held back after Condoleezza Rice intervened. (See "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis.")
Since Pakistan also favors that Kashmir, which has a most Muslim population, be independent of India, India has accused Pakistan of supporting Lashkar-e-Toiba.

For years, there have been charges that Pakistan's ISI has aided Taliban militants who were fighting Nato forces in Afghanistan. These charges were given a substantial boost recently by the illegal release of tens of thousands of secret documents on the Wikileaks web site. Release of these documents exposes many American and European soldiers and Afghan civilians to retaliation from the Taliban, and has highlighted many rumors, most certainly untrue, of ISI involvement.

In Generational Dynamics, we're always looking for changes in attitude and behavior of large masses of people, generations of people, and that appears to be going on today. For weeks it appears that there's been increasing recognition of the futility of the Afghan war. And with the Wikileaks release, there seems to be an increasing belief, fair or not, that Pakistan is aiding the Taliban.

This is a potentially dangerous situation, as Pakistanis become increasingly hostile to Nato, India and the West, while they get closer to China.

It's far from clear to me what David Cameron is doing. Perhaps there is no more complicated explanation than that Cameron is a young Generation-Xer, doing dumb things like many Generation-Xers.

As I wrote yesterday, siding against Israel runs counter to long-term trends, so Generational Dynamics predicts that this change in political direction is only temporary.

But his criticisms of Pakistan are consistent with long-term trends, and so his statements are going to be part of the scenario that pushes us toward the Clash of Civilizations world war.

Additional links

Mideast peace talks are facing a deadline of sorts on September 26, when a 10-month freeze of Israeli settlement construction is set to expire. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who is not from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's party, but is part of his coalition, has reassured settlers that life will return to "normal" when the freeze ends on that date. A return to settlement construction would lead to enormous anger from the Palestinians, and from Western leaders. Washington Post

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu says that any attempt to continue the freeze on settlement construction past September 26 would bring down the government. Haaretz

A Sunni Muslim leader in Lebanon is expressing concern about the exodus of Christians from Lebanon and the region, in reaction to the growing population and hostility of their Muslim neighbors. Media Line

Egyptian forces took control of 10 smuggling tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border on Wednesday and thwarted a cement-smuggling operation. Eurasia Review

A malware software program called Stuxnet has been demonstrated to be able to steal industrial data from Siemens control systems on the US power grid. Another demonstration showed how a hacker could break into a massive power turbine and physically destroy it. ComputerWorld

Russia is becoming increasingly concerned about Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and that's leading to a war of words between the two countries. Geopolitical Monitor

Increasing violence by PKK Kurd terrorists in Turkey is leading to conspiracy theories within the government, including explosive charges that members of Turkey's "deep state" are fueling conflict with the PKK in order to undermine trust in the government. WSJ (Access).

The first phase of the U.S. / South Korean naval exercises have ended without incident beyond verbal threats from North Korea. The joint exercise focused particularly on antisubmarine maneuvers. On the last day, they conducted simulation drills in which they practiced detecting infiltrations of enemy submarines, and dropping antisubmarine bombs and torpedoes. Ten more exercises are planned. Korea Herald

Are you addicted to cosmetics? There can be a dark side to being a beauty and cosmetic junkie. LA Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jul-10 News -- British PM sides with India against Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Jul-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jul-2010 29-Jul-10 News -- British PM sides with India against Pakistan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jul-2010
29-Jul-10 News -- British PM sides with India against Pakistan