Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Sep-2008

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Markets in total chaos on historic day.

Markets in total chaos on historic day.

The pictures tell the story.

Market snapshot, Monday, September 15, 2008

Nobody knows what's going to happen next.

But there is one thing that will happen for sure at some point: A massive generational panic and crash, when millions or even tens of millions of Boomers and Generation-Xers in countries around the world, never having seen anything like this before, and not having believed it was even possible, suddenly try to sell everything in a mass panic. This will bring down computer systems for hours, perhaps even for a day or two, as people watch tv in glazed horror as their life savings disappear.

I've estimated that the probability of a major financial crisis (generational stock market panic and crash) in any given week from now on is about 3%. The probability of a crisis some time in the next 52 weeks is 75%, according to this estimate. (16-Sep-2008) Permanent Link
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