	Generational Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Aug-2008
"The deal is done" for Pakistan's President Musharraf to resign

Web Log - August, 2008

"The deal is done" for Pakistan's President Musharraf to resign

Pakistan looks into the abyss.

A week after being threatened with impeachment, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf appears to be close to resignation.

According a front-page article in Pakistan's prestigious Daily Times, "The deal is done." Musharraf will be permitted to flee to a foreign country.

Who will replace Musharraf? It will certainly be someone younger, someone without anything close to the same negotiating skills required to achieve peace with India. A younger President will have to prove that he can stand up other foreign leaders, and he'll be far more confrontational.

I heard one Pakistani official on the BBC get asked how any new president would handle the violence going on in Pakistan's tribal regions. His answer: "The fighting will stop by itself, since it's Musharraf's presence that's causing the fighting."

Thus we see the crazy level of fantasy that many Pakistanis are exhibiting as they go forward to get rid of the one person who had held the country together for 8 years, and maintained peace with India. That remark about the fighting stopping by itself is a very familiar sounding kind of statement to me. In America, it would be a nihilistic Gen-Xer with contempt for any accomplishment by anyone older, and a willingness to destroy all such things. As I've said many times, this nihilism and destruction backfires and turns into self-destruction.

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: cfr.org)</font>

Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) form a safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaeda terrorists. (Source: cfr.org)

Pakistan seems well on the way to similar self-destruction. I've heard nothing from the politicians who might replace Musharraf that gives me anything remotely close to the feeling that these people have a clue what's going on. Pakistan has enormous problems -- huge economic problems, conflict in the tribal areas, and conflict in Kashmir -- and the new President will be clueless about how to handle them.

Fighting in the Bajaur between the Pakistan army facing Taliban and al-Qaeda forces has gotten so bad that 135,000 residents have fled to other regions.

Fighting has also been escalating in Kashmir and Jammu provinces, mainly in the Indian-administered region, as there are massive protests by both Muslim and Hindu residents.

A new Pakistan president will have to deal with all of these problems, and the chances are that a younger, clueless President will be extremely confrontational and will over-react.

We now have two regions that are becoming increasingly dangerous and unstable -- Pakistan and the Caucasus. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a new world war will affect both of these regions. It only remains to be seen where it will start. (15-Aug-2008) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Aug-2008 "The deal is done" for Pakistan's President Musharraf to resign

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Aug-2008
"The deal is done" for Pakistan's President Musharraf to resign